Forex: All News & Analysis

USD/JPY: Dollar stays near lows after mixed 20-year auction

Earnings and soft services PMIs sends yields and dollar lower Fed rate hike odds for September 20th meeting stand at 11% (down from yesterday's 16%) Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin may have died in plane crash The US dollar remained near session lows against the Japanese yen after the Treasury's mixed 20-year auction. The bond market rally that started yesterday is holding up after decent demand saw a 4.499% yield, which was higher than the pre-sale yield of 4.490%, and obviously above the

23-08-2023 15:21 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD pares losses after soft PMIs

UK manufacturing and services PMIs decelerate The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720, down 0.09%. UK PMIs head lower The UK economy continues to cool down, and today's PMI readings showed deceleration in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

23-08-2023 13:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY: Pullback emerges following horrible EZ PMI data

Eurozone August Services PMI fell into contraction territory; dropping from 50.9 to 48.3 Treasuries extend gains after global PMIs disappoint; double digit declines across global 10-year bonds Yen rallies to a 1-week high against the dollar EUR/JPY (a daily char of which is show) as of Wednesday (8/23/2023) displays a noticeable pullback after the euro area's service sector contraction worsened. The 20-nation bloc saw the service sector unexpectedly fell into contraction territory.

23-08-2023 12:33 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - ECB may be convinced to hold in September after latest data

Eurozone Services PMI falls to 48.3 in August (50.5 expected, 50.9 in July) Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rises to 43.7 in August (42.6 expected, 42.7 in July) Euro testing key support against the US dollar The data from the eurozone was no more promising, particularly Germany - the bloc's largest economy - which has had a harder year than most and looks likely to continue to do so going into next year. There was a slight and unexpected improvement in the manufacturing number.

23-08-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - BoE rate expectations pared back as PMIs point to recession

UK Services PMI falls to 48.7 (50.8 expected, 51.5 in July) UK Manufacturing PMI falls to 42.5 (45 expected, 45.3 in July) Cable tests support but rebounds for the third time The UK services and manufacturing PMI surveys fell well short of forecasts this morning, the former deep into contraction territory. What's more, the weakness was widespread from new orders to hiring and prices paid, which suggests we're not just talking about a blip in the data, but rather the prospect of a recessio

23-08-2023 11:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar steady after lackluster PMIs

Australia's manufacturing and services PMIs ease in August The Australian dollar is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6416, down 0.07%.

23-08-2023 07:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound eyes PMIs reports

UK order expectations decline Manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to tick lower on Wednesday The British pound started the Tuesday session in positive territory but has given up these gains. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2737, down 0.16%. UK manufacturing continues to sputter The Confederation of British Industry industrial order expectations fell to -15 in August, down from -9 in July and missing the consensus estimate of -13.

22-08-2023 09:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

BRICS Summit: Dedollarization risks ease

Xi meets Ramaphosa and discuss how to bolster trade in their own currencies Yuan still weakens despite PBOC’s most forceful fixing on record BRICS might lead to more investment in Africa, potentially bolstering rand The annual BRICS Summit begins in Johannesburg with China’s President Xi meeting South African President Ramaphosa. China and India have enjoyed 25 years of diplomatic ties and are looking to bolster trade and investment with more countries. The three-day summit will be attended b

22-08-2023 08:31 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD climbs ahead of retail sales

NZD/USD posts strong gains on Tuesday New Zealand retail sales are expected to decline by 2.6% The New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5959, up 0.55%.

22-08-2023 08:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD - Consolidation continues amid promising inflation numbers for the UK

New inflation methodology offers hope for BoE 1.28 could be major resistance point for GBPUSD A break of 1.26 could be bearish signal Recent UK economic data has been a mixed bag, with wages rising at a much-accelerated rate but inflation decelerating as expected. While the Bank of England will be relieved at the latter, the former will remain a concern as wage growth even near those levels is not consistent with inflation returning sustainably to target over the medium term. The ONS released

22-08-2023 05:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen rises as inflation higher than expected

The Japanese yen has bounced back on Tuesday after starting the week with losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.67, down 0.37%. BoJ core inflation rises to 3.3% Earlier today, Japan released BoJ core inflation, one of the central bank's preferred inflation indicators.

22-08-2023 05:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CHF Technical: Potential continuation of medium-term downtrend

The CHF is the second-best performing major currency against the USD based on a one-month rolling basis. The recent four weeks of up move of USD/CHF has flashed out bullish exhaustion conditions that advocate the potential continuation of its medium-term impulsive down move. 0.8800/8830 is the key resistance zone to watch on the USD/CHF. In the past four weeks, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is the second best-performing major currency against the USD where the CHF just depreciated by -1.40% with the GB

22-08-2023 02:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Euro shrugs after mixed inflation report

Markets show little reaction to Friday's eurozone inflation report Headline inflation falls but core rate unchanged The euro is steady at the start of the week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0886, up 0.13%.

21-08-2023 11:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY punches above 146, BoJ inflation next

USD/JPY pushes above 146 line Bank of Japan's Core CPI is expected to ease to 2.7% The Japanese yen has posted significant losses on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 146.23 in the North American session, up 0.57% on the day.

21-08-2023 10:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD: The Jackson Hole Dollar Playbook

2-year Treasury yield rises 3.7bps to 4.979% (supports Fed's higher for longer push) Dollar softens as risk appetite tentatively returns following last week's stock market rout Fed Chair Powell to speak at Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday The fate of the dollar will not solely depend on what Fed Chair Powell says at Jackson, but on several other factors. Will Nvidia’s earnings reignite the AI trade and provide much needed relief to tech stocks?

21-08-2023 10:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - China stock market hit 9-month low, further downside risk in Nasdaq 100 as Jackson Hole looms

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to decipher the current bearish performance of China stock market as its key CSI 300 benchmark stock index sank to a 9-month low and the implications of Fed Chair Powell's keynote address on the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on the longer-term equilibrium interest rate while momentum elements of long duration risk assets such as Nasdaq 100 are exhibiting risk of further downside pressure. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2QVJo6

21-08-2023 08:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Another rough week for the Australian dollar

AUD/USD close to 9-month lows China fails to cut 5-year LPR The Australian dollar is steady at the start of the new trading week. In the European session, AUD/USD is unchanged at 0.6404.

21-08-2023 06:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Technical: Watch 92.80 key downside trigger level

Weak medium-term momentum may kickstart a medium-term downtrend phase for AUD/JPY. Key short-term resistance stands at 93.70 with a potential downside trigger at 92.80. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/JPY: Minor downtrend remains intact” published on 28 June 2023. Click here for a recap. Since its 19 June 2023 high of 97.67, the price actions of the AUD/JPY have continued to shape lower highs despite a retest and rebound on its key 200-day moving average after it printed

21-08-2023 02:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - Powell's Jackson Hole Speech will be Must-See TV

The main event for next week will be the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Fed Chair Powell’s speech will reiterate that more rate hikes might be needed and that rates should stay higher for longer. With the recent surge with real yields, Fed Chair Powell can acknowledge that policy is restrictive and that future rate cuts could eventually be warranted as long as inflation has been defeated.

18-08-2023 14:30 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: Yen struggles to act like safe-haven this week as stocks have worst week since March

Soft landing hopes fizzle as real yields hit highest levels in a decade China jitters remain as Evergrande files for US bankruptcy Dollar index posts best win streak since May 2022 The Japanese yen is no longer acting like a safe haven currency. With global stocks having the worst week since March, dollar-yen appears poised to finish the week higher. Wall Street has had a major reset, and now believes that interest rates will stay higher for longer, and is fearful that the Fed might have to d

18-08-2023 12:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Forex: all news & analysis