Forex: All News & Analysis

Podcast - Fed delivers a hawkish skip, King Dollar remains, Oil's minor pullback

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss Wall Street's reaction to the FOMC decision.

20-09-2023 23:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Fed React: Dollar pares earlier losses after the Fed's attempt of a hawkish skip

Fed kept rates steady; target range remained at 5.25%-5.50% (as expected) Dot plots showed 12 of 19 expected policymakers (12 also called for one more hike in June) Fed projections saw rate cut bets halved from June's 5.10% to 4.60% US stocks dropped and king dollar returned after the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled one more rate hike will happen this year. The US economy is too strong and this rate hiking cycle will last a lot longer than Wall Street wants.

20-09-2023 15:15 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY drifting as Fed decision looms

Fed expected to pause, focus on dot plots The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In Wednesday's North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.66, down 0.15%. Fed widely expected to pause If the Federal Reserve does not pause rate hikes at today's meeting, it would be a massive surprise.

20-09-2023 13:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD - BoE a coin toss after surprisingly encouraging inflation report

UK CPI 6.7% in August (7.1% expected, 6.8% in July) UK Core CPI 6.2% in August (6.8% expected, 6.9% in July) GBPUSD sees strong support near 1.23 Everyone at the Bank of England undoubtedly breathed a collective sigh of relief this morning, joining the rest of us, as inflation subsided much more than expected in August. Not only did the headline CPI rate not rise last month, as was expected, it actually fell slightly, with the core rate falling a lot. So despite the unfavorable base effect

20-09-2023 10:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie jumps as PBOC holds lending rates, hits 3-week high

China maintains one-year and five-year loan prime rates Australian dollar records strong gains The Australian dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6496, up 0.67% and its highest level in three weeks. China holds loans prime rates China's banks maintained their benchmark loan rates for September, a sign that the Chinese economy may be finding its footing after government support.

20-09-2023 09:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar pares gains after inflation rises

Canada's CPI rises in August Federal widely expected to hold rates The Canadian dollar is drifting in Wednesday's European session. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3432, down 0.11%. Canada's CPI jumps Canada's inflation rate rose sharply in July and the Canadian dollar rose as much as 0.70% on Tuesday and hit a 5-week high, but pared most of these gains.

20-09-2023 06:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/CAD: Loonie rallies after hot inflation report make next BOC meeting a coin flip

BOC's three-month moving average surged by a full point to 4.5% Odd's for the October 25th BOC policy meeting jumped to 50.5% vs 25.1% yesterday The December 6th implied rate for Canada is at 5.233% (nearly fully prices in a quarter point rate rise) The Canadian dollar currency is surging against the euro after a hot inflation report raised concerns that the Bank of Canada (BOC) might not be done raising rates. Inflation was clearly boosted by the surge with gasoline prices, and that will get

19-09-2023 12:25 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD drifting with eye on inflation report

UK inflation expected to rise Fed widely expected to pause rate increases The British pound is trading quietly on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2397, up 0.10%. UK inflation expected to rise The Bank of England has had a rough time in its battle with inflation, to put it mildly.

19-09-2023 10:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dollar wavers as the Fed's two-day policy begins

Modest dollar weakness is emerging as the Fed begins their two-day policy meeting; the euro is back above the 1.07 level, while the loonie is advancing below the 200-day SMA, and as the British pound rises above the 1.24 level. Positioning into the FOMC meeting is seeing rate options traders increase hedges, which means some traders are worried that the expected mid-year pivot could be in jeopardy. FOMC Inflation has come down a lot, but the Fed’s inflation isn’t quite over yet. The market

19-09-2023 08:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve decision

Fed decision and forecasts on Wednesday could be very significant Is the Fed ready to replicate the ECB's explicitly dovish statement? Gold testing key resistance zone ahead of the meeting Gold is trading a little flat on Tuesday, perhaps showing a little caution ahead of the Fed meeting after a decent recovery in recent days. The yellow metal slipped back toward $1,900 amid resilient economic figures from the US that fed into fears of interest rates staying high for longer

19-09-2023 08:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Edges higher even as eurozone inflation is revised slightly lower

Headline HICP inflation falls to 5.2% (5.3% expected) while core HICP remains at 5.3% Further declines expected over the remainder of the year Divergence warns of potential exhaustion in the sell-off Eurozone headline inflation was slightly lower than initially reported in August while core was unrevised and is now modestly higher. Both are expected to fall going into next year and today's revisions are unlikely to alter the view of the ECB which has already decided that no more rate hikes will

19-09-2023 07:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD falls to one-month low

Canada's CPI expected to decline The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3441, down 0.33%.

19-09-2023 07:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar edges higher after RBA minutes

RBA minutes show that central bank considered rate hike China to announce loan prime rate decision on Wednesday The Australian dollar continues to trade quietly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6456, up 0.30%. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of this month's meeting earlier today.

19-09-2023 06:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Global stock markets are off to a shaky start ahead of the Fed's FOMC and "dot plot"

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss a pivotal week of major central banks' monetary policy decisions from the US Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Challenging moments for several central bankers as they tried to combat elevated inflation from reemerging due to rapidly rising oil prices in the past two months albeit a potentially weaker demand environment in 2024 due to lag effects from higher interest rates in terms of levels and the speed of prior hikes.

19-09-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

The Impact of the UAW Strike on the FX Market

UAW President Fain on latest offer - “It’s definitely a no-go.” A prolonged UAW strike could disrupt the US growth exceptionalism trade The impact of the strike is not as disruptive but it could lead to a lengthier period of production disruption The three Detroit automakers and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union appear to be far from ending the strike that has now entered its fourth day. It is clear that American car manufacturers, Ford (F), GM (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) will be having high

18-09-2023 16:05 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Loonie rallies to best levels in a month as $100 crude risks grow

Bloomberg Survey: Chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 45% Canadian swaps pricing in 27.6% chance of a rate hike at October 25th meeting Oil rally stalls as Saudis deliver cautious outlook. FX traders were not expecting significant moves to start this trading week, which is filled with several key rate decisions. One of the standout trades for September has been the rally with oil prices. Throughout large parts of the pandemic, oil exporting countries haven’t seen the str

18-09-2023 14:27 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar rises despite soft Services PMI

New Zealand Services PMI declines US manufacturing data climbs, consumer sentiment falls The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5918 in the North American session, up 0.34%. New Zealand's Services PMI declines New Zealand's Services PMI eased to 47.1 in August, down from 47.8 in July.

18-09-2023 13:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD eyes RBA minutes

The Australian dollar continues to drift as we start the new trading week. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6438, up 0.11%. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its minutes of this month's meeting on Tuesday.

18-09-2023 06:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY Technical: Bulls may have reached a key bearish reversal zone

The 9-month rally seen in the EUR/JPY has reached a key major resistance zone of 158.55/159.80. Several technical elements have started to hint at signs of bullish exhaustion where the next potential movement may be a multi-day to multi-week bearish mean reversion/counter-trend within a major uptrend phase. The short-term resistance and support will be at 158.55 and 155.90 respectively. Since the start of the year, the EUR/JPY has rallied by 16.30% (2,239 pips) from its 2 January 2023 low of 13

18-09-2023 02:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD: Loonie rides oil's bullish wave

US dollar weakness emerges on as inflation expectations fall to lowest levels in over two year; November Fed rate hike odds remain a coin flip Oil rallies for a third straight week on tightness concerns US oil rig count rises by 2 to 515 The one-way move with oil prices has finally started to provide some underlying support for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency however is starting to show some signs of exhaustion as short-term risks to the outlook grow. The short-term crude demand ou

15-09-2023 13:44 GMT by Edward Moya

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