Forex: All News & Analysis

Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced. Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI d

14-07-2023 02:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Video - Big level broken in GBP/USD after US and UK data

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses GBPUSD in the aftermath of some major US and UK economic releases.

13-07-2023 18:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - UK economy continues to show remarkable resilience

UK economy posts a small contraction of -0.1% in May Higher rates will damage the economy going forward Sterling rally continues breaking above 1.30 against the dollar The UK economy posted only a small contraction in May which was much better than forecast as the country continues to show strong resilience in the face of significant pressures. That resilience has helped to sustain inflation at much higher levels than the Bank of England was hoping for which has in turn led to more rate hikes a

13-07-2023 11:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD remains red hot and is trading at 3-week high

Australian dollar continues to power higher RBA inflation expectations remain at 5.2% US inflation falls to 3% The Australian dollar continues to sizzle and has climbed 1.04% on Thursday, after rising 1.56% a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6857, close to a 3-week high. Australian inflation expectations remain high Inflation remains the Reserve Bank of Australia's number one priority and Thursday's inflation expectations release vindicated the RBA's concern that

13-07-2023 08:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Sterling climbs as UK GDP beats estimate

UK GDP contracts in May but beats estimate British pound hits 15-month high against the US dollar The British pound continues to rally against the US dollar. GBP/USD has risen to 1.3068, up 0.62%.

13-07-2023 06:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China stock market’s momentum-driven rally; watch out for China’s Big Tech

China Big Tech is leading the current momentum-driven rally in China stock market. Supported by a weaker USD/CNH that broke below key near-term support of 7.2160. Further hints from China’s top policymakers that the prior 3-year of stringent regulatory crackdowns on China’s leading technology companies have ended. Current momentum-driven rally of China Big Tech may still see a bumpy ride due to a weak external demand environment. Prior to yesterday’s release of the key US consumer inflation da

13-07-2023 03:32 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Podcast - US inflation treat, RBNZ pause, BoC hikes again

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the latest US inflation data and the interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Canada.

13-07-2023 00:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD slips after BoC rate hike

Bank of Canada raises rates by 0.25% US inflation falls to 3.0%, lower than expected The Canadian dollar has posted strong gains in Wednesday's North American session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3146, down 0.63%.

12-07-2023 10:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - RBA's Lowe may be on way out, US inflation looms

RBA Governor Lowe announces major changes at RBA Board US inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar was sharply higher on Wednesday but could not consolidate these gains. AUD/USD is unchanged in Europe, trading at 0.6691. Will RBA Governor be replaced? Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke on Wednesday and announced key changes to the RBA Board.

12-07-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD - RBNZ may be done with its tightening cycle after pause

RBNZ leaves rates unchanged after near-two year hiking cycle Inflation is seen returning to target next year NZD performing better but potentially running on fumes The RBNZ opted to pause its tightening cycle earlier today after a very aggressive tightening cycle over the last couple of years. After increasing the cash rate to 5.5%, there are signs that the economy is slowing which will bring inflation down.

12-07-2023 06:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD Technical: Bulls rejected at 20 and 200-day moving averages ahead of US CPI

Short-term momentum is likely to have turned negative as seen in the hourly RSI. Key short-term resistance stands at 0.6720. Intermediate supports to watch will be at 0.6630 and 0.6600/6580. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Positive momentum ahead of RBA” published on 4 July 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged the expected push-up and met the first resistance of 0.6720 as it printed a current intraday high of 0.6742 in

12-07-2023 05:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong

New Zealand dollar pares gains as RBNZ holds rates

New Zealand's central bank takes a pause after 12 consecutive hikes New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled US inflation expected to decline to 3.1% The New Zealand dollar showed some gains after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused rates, but has given up most of those gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6206, up 0.14%.

12-07-2023 04:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar loses ground despite solid confidence indicators

Australia's consumers and business confidence improve US inflation expected to fall to 3.1% The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6656 in the North American session, down 0.28%. Consumer and business confidence rise Australia released business and confidence data on Tuesday, with both showing improvement.

11-07-2023 10:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Technicals and Triggers – USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/MXN

FX volatility might be returning given Wall Street is seeing some exhaustion with several key currency trades. The end of tightening for the advance economies keeps getting delayed and sooner than later it will deliver a major blow to growth. FX volatility should pick up as diverging policies from the Fed, BOE, and PBOC could trigger some significant moves in H2. USD/JPY

11-07-2023 10:34 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD - BoE has cause For optimism in UK jobs report

UK unemployment rises to 4% in the three months to May, up from 3.8% Average earnings hit 7.3% (excluding bonus) and 6.9% (including bonus) Markets expect BoE to raise rates another 1.25% UK jobs data this morning was a mixed bag on the face of it but a deeper dive into the numbers may give the Bank of England more cause for optimism than pessimism. The earnings component of the report, while continuing to partly shield households from soaring inflation, is the part the MPC will be most co

11-07-2023 09:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD dips ahead of RBNZ rate decision

New Zealand central bank expected to pause after 12 consecutive hikes New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled The New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6189, down 0.35%. RBNZ expected to take a pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday.

11-07-2023 07:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound extends rally after mixed employment report

UK employment falls but wage growth remains high BoE Governor Bailey says inflation will fall but more rate hikes needed The British pound has edged upward on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2898, up 0.28%.

11-07-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: At risk of a minor bounce before bearish tone resumes

Medium-term uptrend of USD/JPY in place since 16 January 2023 at risk of breakdown. Steep decline from last Thursday, 6 July 2023 has reached oversold condition. Minor bounce cannot be ruled out at this juncture above 140.60 support. Watch the 142.50/142.80 intermediate resistance zone. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY surged to a 7-month high, but fundamentals diverge” published on 23 June 2023. We have highlighted the risks of the overextended rally exhibited in the USD/JPY

10-07-2023 22:02 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD eyes UK employment report

UK jobs report expected to show strong employment and wage growth US nonfarm payrolls declined in June The British pound has drifted lower on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2827 in the European session, down 0.09%. UK employment data expected to remain strong The UK labour market remains resilient despite a cooling economy and high interest rates.

10-07-2023 11:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD slips as NFP falls, Canada adds jobs

US nonfarm payrolls decline Canada adds 60,000 jobs Bank of Canada expected to raise rates on Wednesday The Canadian dollar is trading quietly at the start of the week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3286, up 0.07%.

10-07-2023 09:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Forex: all news & analysis