OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam analyses EURUSD in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes.
07-07-2023 10:29 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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This week is all about inflation. Annual inflation will tumble as energy prices drop and due to base effects, but many traders will pay close attention to the core readings.
07-07-2023 08:14 GMT
by Craig Erlam
EUR/USD is unchanged in the European session, trading at 1.0893.
Nonfarm payrolls expected to decline
All eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to decline for June. However, this week's employment numbers have been mixed, and it will be interesting to see which direction the nonfarm payrolls release takes.
The ADP employment report, which precedes the nonfarm payrolls release by a day or two, tends to get glossed over, as it is not considered a reliable precursor to nonfarm
07-07-2023 06:42 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Japanese wage growth rises, household spending declines
US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall
USD/JPY is sharply lower
The Japanese yen has climbed sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.02, down 0.72%.
07-07-2023 06:04 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop, but massive ADP jobs report is making investors nervous
Canada's labour market is expected to rebound with a 20,000 gain
The Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378.
It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports.
Will nonfarm payroll
07-07-2023 04:27 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Bullish breakout seen in US Treasury 10-year yield above 3.90%, next resistance at 4.46%.
Long-duration assets (fixed income & growth stocks) sold off and underperformed in the past two days.
Record low level of implied correlation among S&P 500 stocks may lead to a spike in VIX.
Asian stocks underperformed reinforced by a weak yuan despite subtle interventions by PBoC.
Déjà vu, it’s all about government bond yields again
In the past two days, we have seen several significant movements in the g
07-07-2023 02:30 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
ADP employment surprises with a huge gain of 497,000
On Friday, US releases nonfarm payrolls and Canada publishes the employment report
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall to 225,000, Canada projected to add 20,000 jobs
The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, down 0.58%.
06-07-2023 11:50 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
ADP shows 497,000 jobs created in June, biggest gains in over a year
ISM Services Index makes 4-month high
ISM Prices paid declined from 56.2 to 54.1, lowest since March 2020
US stocks extend losses after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services report raised the odds the Fed might have to do deliver more rate hikes beyond the July FOMC meeting. The dollar pared losses as Fed rate hike odds rose on expectations the NFP report will deliver its 15th straight beat.
06-07-2023 10:16 GMT
by Edward Moya
Australia posts strong trade surplus
US ADP employment surprises with massive gain
US unemployment claims and ISM Services PMI will be released later on Thursday
Thursday has been a busy day for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar rose after a strong Australian trade balance report but has reversed directions following a sparking US ADP employment release.
06-07-2023 09:21 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
FOMC minutes highlight policy divisions
USD/JPY falls sharply
Japan releases Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings on Friday
The Japanese yen is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.82, down 0.57%.
Fed minutes point to disagreement over rate path
The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening rates in order to curb inflation but took a pause in June after ten consecutive hikes.
06-07-2023 07:37 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
China President Xi tells military to firmly safeguard sovereignty and to strengthen military drills
Tesla and China's top car manufacturers pledge to avoid 'abnormal pricing'
Fed rate hike expectations for the July 26th meeting stand at 85.3%, up from 81.1% at the end of last week.
Us stocks are poised for a soft open as global recession fears sink risk appetite ahead of a few key labor and service economic reports. The Fed Minutes did no favors for sentiment as officials favor a July rate inc
06-07-2023 07:03 GMT
by Edward Moya
The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the hawks will still want to deliver more tightening. Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight throughout the rest of the year. If inflation remains persistent, that could be a gamechanger for inflation expectations. Wall Street was getting comfortable with higher for a little bit longer, but they are not ready to price in more than a half-point in rate hikes. In order to conquer inflation the Fe
05-07-2023 17:39 GMT
by Edward Moya
The first half of the year was rather choppy for the US dollar as massive bets of weakness were scaled down. Many on Wall Street expected the dollar to weaken as most of the other major currencies were about to deliver significantly more tightening. Regional growth rotations on an improving outlook from a roaring Chinese economy were also supposed to support the case for strengthening commodity demand.
The dollar might be positioned for a little more short-term strength here as the odds for m
05-07-2023 17:01 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to analyze the RBA rate decision, what the latest factory data says about the economy, and what is driving both oil and gold prices.
05-07-2023 15:04 GMT
by Edward Moya
AUD/USD slips after a four-day rally
China's Services PMI eases in June
Australia's retail sales jump 0.7% in May
FOMC minutes will be released later on Wednesday
The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, after a four-day rally that saw the Aussie climb 100 pips. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6663, down 0.42%.
China's Services PMI eases but indicates expansion
China is Australia's largest trading partner, making the Aussie sensitive to
05-07-2023 11:34 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Eurozone and German Services PMIs weaken in June
Markets looking for clues as Fed releases minutes on Wednesday
EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882.
German and eurozone Services PMIs ease
The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration.
05-07-2023 06:55 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Japanese Services PMI continues to expand
Federal Reserve to release June meeting minutes on Wednesday
USD/JPY continues to have a very quiet week and is trading at 144.36, down 0.07%, in the European session.
Japanese Services PMI points to growth
Japanese business activity continues to expand. The Services PMI, released on Wednesday, was revised lower to 54.0 in June from 54.2.
05-07-2023 05:06 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The medium-term downtrend phase of EUR/GBP in place since the 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979 remains intact.
Recent price actions have staged a decline from its 28 June 2023 high of 0.8658 and reintegrated below the 20-day moving average.
Watch the key short-term resistance of 0.8610 to maintain a bearish tone
Since its 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979, the EUR/GBP has continued to evolve in a medium-term downtrend phase as depicted by its price actions that oscillated within a descending channel
05-07-2023 03:58 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
German and Eurozone PMIs expected to ease on Wednesday
Fed releases minutes of June meeting on Wednesday
US yield curve hits deepest inversion since 1981
EUR/USD is drifting downward on Tuesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0898, down 0.15%.
04-07-2023 13:41 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Swiss inflation lower than expected
US markets closed on Tuesday
Fed minutes will be released on Wednesday
The Swiss franc is showing little movement on Tuesday, trading at 0.8959 in the European session. US markets are closed for the July Fourth holiday and we can expect a quiet day for USD/CHF.
Swiss inflation falls to 1.7%
Switzerland's inflation rate dipped in June to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in May and just below the consensus of 1.8%.
04-07-2023 07:16 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher