- US Stock Benchmarks are starting the week confused, looking for direction
- With no major US data until Friday's PCE, traders will be looking at geopolitics to guide sentiment
- Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500
US traders just came back from a long weekend break after yesterday's President's Day celebrations.
Last week concluded a bizarre week, with a very positive CPI report not materializing into a full-on rebound for equities.
As a matter of fact, the Dow Jones broke back below 50,000; tech stocks are still under heavy pressure, and overall, Stock Markets have been directionless for the past three months.
Directionless doesn't mean a Market top, but what stands out from recent weeks' action is that investors will really need a concrete shift in sentiment before Indexes can start heading to new highs again.
A recent Bank of America Survey still points to heavy positioning and low cash holdings among Asset Managers (implying that the bullet clips are close to empty).
Yet, Indexes remain well within 10% of their all-time highs and have resisted the large waves of outflows in the AI/Tech sectors.
US per Sector Performance since 2026 – Source: TradingView
With the current session forming daily Dojis and overall trading unchanged across all US Indexes (except Nasdaq, down a modest 0.30%), the current signal is one of confusion.
US rates are not expected to change until at least the May meeting. Participants are still awaiting Kevin Warsh's views, and the Tariff decision (expected to be rejected by the Supreme Court) could significantly affect the current course of action.
Holding well despite uncertainty is a sign of relative strength, but it can quickly be overturned by worsening news. Keep a very close eye on new data from the US; geopolitics seems to be stabilizing, but remains a volatility factor.
This screams for range-bound action until we learn more.
Current picture for the Stock Market (12:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 17, 2026
Dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.
Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels
Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView
The Dow has now been holding within a tight range for the past 4 sessions which provides traders with clear breakout boundaries.
- A break and close above the 4H 50-period Moving average (49,775) would confirm a return above the 50,000 and should relaunch prospects for continued all-time highs
- A break and close below the 200 MA (49,257) however would lead to a retest of the broader range lows around 48,000.
Dow Jones technical levels for trading:
Resistance Levels
- January highs Key Pivot 49,500 to 49,700 (4H 50 MA)
- Intraday Resistance 50,250 (rejecting)
- ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
- Index All-Time highs 50,512
Support Levels
- 4H 200 MA 49,250
- Major Support – 49,000
- Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700
- Key Support around 47,500
- 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)
Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels
Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView
It is difficult to remain as bearish on the Nasdaq when it really remains so resilient.
Now forming the basis of a double bottom at its key support, and the RSI turning higher, it seems that bears are now getting quite exhausted.
The path of least resistance now seems to be at least for a retest of the pivot zone at 25,000 and could extend to its 4H 200-MA (25,400).
Bears will want too see a clean break and close below 24,000.
Nasdaq technical levels of interest:
Resistance Levels
- 25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (2H 200 MA)
- Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850
- 26,246 FOMC highs
- All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
Support Levels
- 24,500 to 25,600 Key Support (current rebound)
- February 5 lows 24,165
- October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
- Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support
S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels
S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView
The S&P 500 has been holding one of the cleanest range seen in ages in Equity benchmarks and is currently standing at its lows, prompting similar views as in the Nasdaq. (I hope some traders caught our early call for rangebound conditions)
A test of its 50 and 200 Moving Averages (around 6,920) will come as a final line for bears to turn the consolidation into something materially subject to downward continuation, if not, expect the 6,750 to 7,000 range to hold until traders receive more news.
S&P 500 technical levels of interest:
Resistance Levels
- Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (Rejecting)
- Session top 6,996
- Current ATH 7,020
- All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)
Support Levels
- 6,920 Session lows and 2H MA 50/200 (key barometer)
- Pivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900
- Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850
- 6,800 Psychological Support
- Overnight lows 6,735 (range lows)
- 6,400 Major psychological support
Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!
Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
