OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam talks about how gold is trading ahead of a big week for the US.
03-03-2023 19:26 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Commodities: all news & analysis
Explore our extensive commodities news, which unveils critical insights into price movements, trends, and expert forecasts in the raw materials market. By examining price actions and understanding the factors influencing commodity values, understand current market dynamics. This page is designed to boost your research on historical trends, identify seasonal patterns, and sharpen your trading strategies across sectors such as energy, metals, and agriculture. Equip yourself with the knowledge necessary to enhance your understanding of the commodities landscape and elevate your trading decisions.
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam highlights five things that he believes investors will be closely tracking over the next month.
03-03-2023 19:09 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the US ISM Service Index and the latest round of Fed speak, oil volatility after the UAE refutes speculation about considering leaving OPEC, cryptos, and the week ahead.
03-03-2023 15:00 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks rallied after another impressive ISM services index suggests that part of the economy remains healthy and as Treasuries rally after the Fed’s monetary policy report said “high inflation is not becoming entrenched.” Wall Street has had a lot of Fed speak to digest over the past week, but it seems clear that traders believe we are very close to the peak despite all these signs of a resilient economy.
03-03-2023 14:07 GMT
by Edward Moya
Back in the middle of the range
A decent week for oil prices comes to an end slightly in the red, perhaps a sign of some profit-taking kicking in. Prices have fluctuated in a range for months now and the current price sits more-or-less in the middle of that range.
03-03-2023 08:44 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US stocks are under pressure after another round of economic data suggest central bank tightening by both the Fed and ECB might have to be more aggressive. The bond market selloff returned after EU core price inflation hit fresh record highs and US jobless claims edged lower and as labor costs surged. The 10-year Treasury yield is surging, up 6.7bps to 4.058%, while the 30-year rose above 4.00% for the first time since November. The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.4 bps higher to 4.923% and seems
02-03-2023 09:55 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks are falling after the ISM manufacturing report posted a modest rise that still remains in contraction territory, but prices paid came in hotter, which signals rising costs are coming. The argument for more rate hikes is elevated as material costs appear poised to rise and as the Fed has yet to see a true demand slowdown.
01-03-2023 14:31 GMT
by Edward Moya
PMIs a big positive for oil
It's not just equities that have been lifted by Chinese PMIs, oil is also rallying today on the prospect of a stronger Chinese recovery and resilient global demand. While this was just one survey, the breakdown of the surveys was undoubtedly encouraging and that's lifting Brent and WTI in early trade.
All we need to see now are signs of cooling price pressures and perhaps less heat in the labour market in order for crude to potentially break higher.
01-03-2023 03:59 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Choppy trade ahead?
Oil prices remain very choppy with gains today largely offsetting losses at the start of the week. We may have to wait for more hard-hitting economic data next week before we see the upper or lower ranges tested as the uncertainty appears to be preventing a serious move in either direction.
Should the January data prove to be a blip, it could put pressure on the upper end of the range as longer-term economic prospects improve, while another month of hot data could necessitate
28-02-2023 03:54 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Equity markets ended last week on a negative note but they're bouncing back once more in trade on Monday.
Interest rate fears are front and centre, following a terrible month of data from the US in January, as far as the Fed is concerned at least. That was further compounded on Friday by the PCE, income, and spending data which didn't come as a major surprise given what preceded it but it didn't offer any relief either.
Thankfully, January is likely to be an anomaly month driven by unseasonably
27-02-2023 11:20 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the consolidation in crude oil and what is driving it.
24-02-2023 12:10 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US stocks are selling off after the Fed’s preferred inflation reading comes in scorching hot, prompting bets that they will hike rates over the next three meetings. Some traders are also worried that they may need to take rates well above 6.00%.
This morning is not just about PCE inflation, but also the consumer.
24-02-2023 10:38 GMT
by Edward Moya
It's been a strange week in financial markets, one in which we've learned relatively little but reality appears to be slowly catching up on some.
I say that as someone that doesn't think things will be as bad as they currently seem on interest rates and the economy but equally is of the belief that markets should at least reflect the risk of it being so. We are seeing that in some corners of the market but equity markets - and cryptos for that matter - have been reluctant to be discouraged.
They
24-02-2023 08:48 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US stocks initially rallied as traders become confident the Fed’s rate hiking campaign will be over after two or three more rate hikes. Stocks were also getting a boost after Nvidia delivered a robust outlook.
23-02-2023 13:37 GMT
by Edward Moya
Glacial consolidation
Oil markets are continuing to consolidate, albeit at a glacial pace, and today we're seeing prices creep higher just as they near the lows from earlier this month. While traders remain optimistic about China, they have become less so about the global economy as more and more rate hikes have been priced in.
If one of those narratives changes, or we see a significant shift in another driving force in the oil markets - Russia, OPEC+, etc - then we could see prices break out of
23-02-2023 04:31 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US stock turned positive after Fed’s Bullard stated that markets might be over-pricing US recession risk. Bullard said his projections for rates are to reach 5.375%, which implies 75 bps more in rate increases. Bullard is one of the more hawkish members, so if he thinks we only have a little ways to go here, the peak in rates might be properly priced in. The disagreement between the Fed and markets on how high rates to go might be over and that could provide a tentative boost for stocks.
22-02-2023 10:26 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks are declining after retail earnings suggest margin worries are here and it will only get worse as the Fed is likely to deliver more tightening into early summer. Treasury yields are surging here as a tight labor market will force the Fed to do more tightening. Retailer earnings are suggesting it is going to be a tough year ahead and that should keep the pressure on stocks.
Geopolitics
Russia’s Vladimir Putin’s State of the Union speech suspended participation in a key nuclear arms p
21-02-2023 07:48 GMT
by Edward Moya
Choppy trading continues
Oil remains choppy this week with Brent and WTI slipping around 1% in early trade on Tuesday, wiping out similar gains at the start of the week. There is undoubtedly more optimism around the Chinese economy which will stimulate more demand this year but at the same time, sentiment is cooling on the global economy as interest rates are projected to go a little higher than previously anticipated.
This was always likely to be a quarter of big swings in sentiment as it was t
21-02-2023 03:40 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Choppy trade continues
Oil prices are bouncing back a little after slipping throughout the last week from their recent highs. The optimism around China today may be responsible for the gains we're seeing in crude which would make a lot of sense given it's the world's largest importer and expected to recover strongly from the Covid transition.
But as we've seen over the last few months, there's more to this story than just China and the decline over the last week was likely a reflection of more p
20-02-2023 08:25 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Wall Street appears to be closing out the week on a down note as investors become rattled over the prospect of more tightening by the Fed. It isn’t just Fed expectations that are rising, traders are also expecting the ECB to send rates much higher.
17-02-2023 16:17 GMT
by Edward Moya