Commodities: all news & analysis

Explore our extensive commodities news, which unveils critical insights into price movements, trends, and expert forecasts in the raw materials market. By examining price actions and understanding the factors influencing commodity values, understand current market dynamics. This page is designed to boost your research on historical trends, identify seasonal patterns, and sharpen your trading strategies across sectors such as energy, metals, and agriculture. Equip yourself with the knowledge necessary to enhance your understanding of the commodities landscape and elevate your trading decisions.

WTI Oil Technical: Time for a potential short-term pullback

Recent bullish breakout from “Descending Wedge” has led to a 10% rally to reach a medium-term resistance zone of US$83.80/84.90. Technical elements are now advocating a potential corrective pull-back with supports coming in at US$79.80 and US$77.20. Today’s surprise three interest rate cuts by China’s central bank, PBoC has triggered a risk-off behaviour in cross-assets (FX, stock indices, commodities) via a negative reflexivity feedback loop. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “

15-08-2023 08:11 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Yields rise alongside dollar; Tech leads the charge higher as stocks rebound from 2-week lows

US 10-year tips yield rise to the highest levels since 2009 NY Fed near-term inflation falls to lowest levels since 2021 Nasdaq rebounds as AI trade returns Summer trading and some choppiness has helped the US dollar continue to rally as rates remain volatile. It has not been a smooth ride for the dollar as investors weigh concerns on rising debt levels, cooling inflation expectations, and rising confidence that the Fed will cut rates next year. What is fascinating is that the 10-year TIPS yi

14-08-2023 15:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - A busy week ahead! FOMC minutes, US retail sales, UK Jobs/CPI, RBNZ Decides and Japan GDP/CPI

US With Wall Street very confident that the Fed won’t be raising rates in September, the focus shifts to how strong is the economy and whether it is too robust and if that could sparking fear that inflation might reaccelerate. The economic data starts on Tuesday with a July retail sales report that should show spending picked up from a month ago, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day. Also on Tuesday is the Empire manufacturing report which should show August activity remains weak and t

11-08-2023 15:12 GMT by Edward Moya

US stocks gyrate on hot PPI report and anchored inflation expectations; Oil rallies and gold softens

US stocks are mostly gyrating over economic data points and surveys that remind us that the disinflation process is going to struggle reaching the Fed’s 2% target. A slightly hotter-than-expected PPI report sent Treasury yields initially higher as Wall Street started to fret over a potential reacceleration with inflation. It is easy to make the hawkish case for the Fed as we are still expecting rising wages from labor disputes, higher energy prices, and a gradual weakening of the labor market.

11-08-2023 13:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Brent Crude - Oil looking a little tired as gas prices pare gains

Oil prices have risen more than 20% since late June, buoyed by the actions of OPEC+ and the unilateral additional cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of which have been extended to September. Furthermore, the economic outlook has become less bleak as countries have been seen to be making progress on inflation, allowing for the end - or near-end - of tightening.

11-08-2023 11:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Video - Gold inflation lift short-lived

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses what impact the latest US inflation data had on gold and highlights what he thinks are the key technical levels going forward.

11-08-2023 11:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

While the yen weakens again towards 145 against the dollar, EUR/JPY rises to highest levels since 2008

Japan last intervened in October when dollar-yen prices were at 150 Fed rate hike odds fall to 10% for the September 20th meeting Japan's material inflation data continues fell to 3.6% from a year earlier, lowest reading since March 2021 The dollar weakened against most of its major trading partners after soft inflation data supported the Fed's case to keep rates on hold in September. Yen traders watched global stocks surge, which put a dent in demand for safe-havens. Dollar-yen is now rallyi

10-08-2023 12:15 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Sell-off stalls ahead of June lows as traders eye the US CPI

A strong inflation number could send it lower again Major support zone below Gold appears to be stabilizing a little ahead of the US CPI report, with traders paying close attention to the outcome as it could ultimately determine whether the yellow metal breaks the June lows or rebounds higher. Prices have been pressured by rising yields and a stronger dollar recently as traders have pushed back expectations around rate cuts for next year. While they appear confident that the Fed is done with ti

10-08-2023 08:30 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Momentum wanes as oil trades around 2023 highs

Stalling around 2023 highs Divergence a sign of waning momentum Oil prices have stabilized again today after another choppy, albeit broadly bullish, start to the week. They're now trading around their highest levels for the year and you have to wonder whether the recent announcements from Saudi Arabia and Russia, combined with better economic prospects, will be enough to lift the price to new 2023 highs, and above $90 in the case of Brent. Are we seeing some profit-taking? One thing that is

10-08-2023 08:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - China deflation, US inflation preview, gas price spike

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US CPI data and what it means, preview the US CPI release and cover the spike in gas prices.

10-08-2023 03:23 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY higher on strong demand for 10-year notes; Commodities diverge

Thursday's inflation report to seal the deal for a Fed hold in September Treasury sells 10-year notes with strong demand as yields drop China deflation raises prospects of more stimulus USD/JPY rose after a strong auction signaled that Wall Street is very confident that inflation will continue to fall. It looks like investors will gladly be eating all the extra issuance that comes from the Treasury.

09-08-2023 15:44 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Drifts lower pressured by higher yields

Higher yields push gold lower Could the US CPI be a game-changer? A break of June lows could be very bearish The second half of the summer hasn't been kind to gold so far, with the yellow metal coming close to $2,000 once more before plunging back toward $1,900 where it spent most of late June and early July. Higher yields, particularly in the US, and a stronger dollar have been primarily responsible for this but there's probably also an element of uncertainty in the economic data that's making

09-08-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Another recovery but it's far from convincing

Chinese trade data only a temporary distraction Recovery not as bullish as it first appears Divergence a red flag Oil prices are advancing again today after briefly dipping on Tuesday following some weaker Chinese trade figures. While that data did appear to trigger some profit-taking in crude, it was never going to be a game-changer as oil market dynamics have turned much more bullish recently. Furthermore, weak global trade and an uninspiring Chinese rebound this year are not new stories.

09-08-2023 10:37 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - China data weighs on oil prices

Chinese trade data disappoints again Saudi and Russian cuts continue to support prices Divergence a potential red flag The data from China appears to be weighing on oil prices today, which is understandable with it being the world's second-largest economy. Still, oil remains not far from yesterday's highs, having recovered more than 20% since late June.

08-08-2023 16:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD finds support after Fed's Harker suggests rate hikes might be over

Fed rate hike odds stumble (Sept at 13.0% of a hike, November at 20.2%) Fed's Harker will may be at a point where it can hold rates steady Fed's Barkin notes inflation remains too high Risk aversion was providing the dollar with some momentum but that move might have been exhausted after Fed's Harker signaled they could be done raising rates. Harker noted, "Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady

08-08-2023 09:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Strong dollar sends oil and gold lower; AUD declines on expected Chinese weakness

China increased gold holdings for a ninth straight month in July Oil unfazed as Ukraine sea attack Russian oil tanker didn't lead to a major disruption Dollar supported amidst bond supply concerns; 10-year Treasury yield rises 3.8bps to 4.074% Oil Crude prices are lower following a surge in the US dollar and as Saudi Arabia anticipates a bumpy road for the crude demand. The Saudis are raising prices across most of Asia and Europe, with the Arab light crude only being boosted by 30 cents, which

07-08-2023 11:13 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Will US core CPI stay at the lowest levels since 2021?

Everyone will be watching the US inflation report as a cool report could help support soft landing hopes and seal the deal for some that the Fed is done raising rates. Expectations for the July inflation report is for headline inflation to rise towards the mid-3% range, while core inflation remains steady and holding onto the lowest levels since 2021 on both a monthly basis at 0.2% and at 4.8% from a year ago.

04-08-2023 13:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Loonie rallies as wages accelerate and oil price rally continues

Canada lost 6,400 jobs in July as the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month Canadian wage pressures jump to 5.0%, which might not let policymakers signal that the peak in rates is in place Crude prices rally for a sixth straight week on OPEC+ determination to keep oil market tight USD/CAD The past few weeks have not been kind to the Canadian dollar, but that could be changing. The general rise in the dollar has stemmed from concerns over the US debt situation. With both the Fed

04-08-2023 12:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Strong USD sends gold to a 3-week low

Crude prices rally after Saudis signal output cuts can be extended or deepened Gold struggles as bond market selloff extends; 10-year Treasury rises 11.4bps to 4.191% Bitcoin's tight range narrows to $28,900 to $30,100 Oil Crude prices rallied after the Saudis did what everyone expected them to do, they extended output cuts. The Saudis are doing whatever it takes to defend oil prices and that could mean we could be seeing $90 oil soon. The only thing getting in oil’s way is a weakening global

03-08-2023 15:35 GMT by Edward Moya

King Dollar returns and takes down Commodities and their Currencies

USD surges as 10-year Treasury rises 4.4bps to 4.067%, highest level since November Oil unable to rally after US crude stockpiles dropped by a record 17 million barrels last week Gold slumps after hot ADP report keeps markets divided on whether Fed will tighten again AUD/USD, NZD, USD, and USD/CAD are all seeing a tentative return of the king dollar trade. The dollar is rallying on safe-haven flows following Fitch's US sovereign rating downgrade. The surge in Treasury yields is also supportin

02-08-2023 14:01 GMT by Edward Moya

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