Bulls are back in vengeance after the US-Iran Ceasefire – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks explode after the US-Iran ceasefire
• Escalation there was not, and the latest TACO helped to push US Equities to erase most of their war losses
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

The US-Iran Ceasefire is now official, and Stock Market bulls are back in vengeance.

Markets have pursued their massive U-turn after what could have been a disastrous geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, which turned out to just be a gigantic TACO.

With the official announcement of a two-week ceasefire, the war premium that heavily discounted Stocks over the last month has suddenly vanished.

Market flows have completely reversed, erasing close to 50% of their war-induced moves across major Indexes and the FX space.

Global equities are wiping out 28 days of severe corrections in the span of a few sessions (with the largest advance today), leading to what looks like a year's worth of gains packed into one massive relief rally.

The Nasdaq topped over 3%, dragging its peers higher in a display of pure market ecstasy.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar took a massive hit, giving up a large chunk of its safe-haven gains as risk appetite exploded and plummeting energy prices weighed heavily on the currency.

While the equity side is partying, the commodity space is tumbling. After a gigantic 20% tumble right on the news, WTI Crude Oil reached a daily bottom around $92 and has started to slowly creep higher.

Traders are now digesting the fact that this deal, while incredibly welcome, currently only lasts for 14 days.

Smart money is actively looking for further clarity and official guidelines regarding the terms of the US-Iran deal to see if this temporary breather can actually translate into a lasting, long-term peace agreement. Until the Strait of Hormuz is fully clear, Oil will remain the ultimate barometer for true de-escalation.

After all, the Market has welcomed what seems to be a definite change, so let’s get ready for what's next by looking at the intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Wall Street in ecstasy! It's almost like nothing happened – North American Mid-Week Market Update
• Ceasefire Crash: Oil tumbles 15% as US-Iran deal unwinds global 'fear trade'
• Gold (XAU/USD) stalls at critical $4900/oz resistance as bear signal flashes

The daily Market action is remarkable, with gigantic gains across the entire Market, with a few victims in the more defensive sectors such as Utilities and Communications, which remained bid throughout the entire war (as rotations and fundamentals helped their outperformance).

The largest gains are seen in Producer manufacturing, with gains spanning from 3% to 10% among the largest names, and Tech is of course loving the turn towards higher beta.

At the other side of the performance spectrum, Energy stocks are getting battered (not surprising with the latest 17% drop in WTI.

The Dow Jones has offered a remarkable run, indeed exploding above the 47,000 level as previewed in our past day's mid-session review, but is now stalling at the 48,000 Pivotal Resistance.

Any break above 48,000 would put back bulls in long-term advantage, however, they will first have to breach back above the morning highs.

With the current 4H doji, traders are clearly looking for further clarity before moving their pieces further – Look for breakouts above (48,088) or below (47,620) for momentum plays.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Pivotal Resistance at 48,000
• Mini-resistance 48,300
• Mini-resistance 2 48,700
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200

Support Levels

• Major Pivot 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,300
• 45,700 to 45,900 August Support
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

A similar move has naturally occurred in the Nasdaq, easily extending back towards the 25,000 resistance but is now facing a significant test.

Bulls will have to breach the Major psychological resistance in order to mark their higher potential for continuation towards their all-time highs.

• Reversing from there would point back towards 24,460 (4H 200-MA).

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,250
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistance
• Major resistance 25,700 to 25,850

Support Levels

• 24,450 to 24,550 Pivot
• Feb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200
• Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000
• August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 has exploded to levels not seen since March 11, and now testing a Pivotal Resistance level, similarly as other Indexes.

Failing to break the morning peak (6,815) would point to a retest of the 4H 200-period MA around 6,700, similarly as the setup seen in Nasdaq.

Breaking 6,690 to the downside however would point to 6,550 (which would require further analysis).

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800
• Early March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840
• Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900

Support Levels

• 6,680 to 6,700 Pivot (4H 200-period MA)
• 6,580 to 6,610 Support
• 4H 50-period MA 6,550
• 6,490 to 6,520 October lows
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Safe Trades and a Successful Week!

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