Oil still plays trick, but Stocks don't care – North American Session Market Wrap for April 9

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 9

The US-Iran Ceasefire is still holding, but its threads are very thin.

Back-and-forth threats from the Iranian side concerning their disagreements with Trump's 15-point plan have almost led to a catastrophe, but the US Administration seems quite serious about the ongoing peace negotiations.

While the White House originally denied Lebanon being part of the ceasefire agreement, Iran made it clear that they would not agree to a peace process with Israeli-Hezbollah tensions still blazing.

While this led to a striking build-up of tension pulling WTI Crude back above $100 (to $104), the US President and Israeli PM Netanyahu agreed to reopen diplomatic lines with the Lebanese government to ease this side of the battleground.

A significant easing in the narrative, which soothed Markets that were quickly returning to tension.

Still, Iran demands a complete ceasefire in Lebanon before the discussion properly starts, something that Israel has not yet communicated. Their demands are for Lebanon to get rid of Hezbollah members from the Ministry.

Shortly after the news, WTI quickly dropped and has officially settled right below the $100 psychological level, which allowed global Equities to push towards new cycle highs.

Even after topping, as Participants continue to seek greater certainty, Markets seem to have turned the page on the recent conflict.

Metals and Bonds have built a slow but steady rebound, Cryptocurrencies are rising again from the bottom, the US Dollar sags, and, before anything, Volatility has reached pre-conflict levels. Expectations are high, so traders will want to ensure sentiment doesn't fail again.

Read More:

• Has Crypto heard enough for a rally? Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) Outlook
• Ceasefire uncertainty clears and Wall Street persists – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• US CPI Preview: US dollar index (DXY) at a critical crossroads ahead of looming CPI spike

The daily heatmap still paints a fractured, yet progressively more consistent Stock market picture.

Amazon has led mega caps, with Tech Electronics and Producer Manufacturing shining bright from the easier narrative.

Softwares are back on the dumping line as Stock Buyers still aim for targeted inflows and the Private Credit situation continues to loom in the back of all these war headlines.

This session was quite chaotic, a new normal for Markets in recent times.

Traders will be looking for headlines before moving further on any bullish ambitions.

With the rollercoaster action, it is still difficult to assume any trends, so keep your expectations low for consistency (except if anything fundamentally changes), with quick trades remaining the way to go for the time being.

Currency Markets are slowly easing their war flows in progressive waves, with the US Dollar lagging at the cost of the more risk-on (and breathing again) Antipodean currencies – NZD and AUD.

About the New Zealand Dollar, the recent hawkish turn from the RBNZ should bring it back into interest but this will once again be contingent on Market mood remaining more positive.

The JPY has also largely struggled as a recent interview of Bank of Japan's Ueda pushed back the pricing for imminent rate hike at the April 28 meeting.

Tomorrow will be a banger of a session for volatility fiends – Combine recent chaos in geopolitics ahead of a key weekend, and add to it a few spices including US CPI, German Inflation and Canadian Employment, and you have there a perfect storm.

Don't forget to check out our US CPI preview!

With the truce still fragile, keep a close eye on the negotiations and US-Iran communications.

Safe Trades!

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