A very surprising run to all-time highs – North American Session Market Wrap for April 15

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 15

Stock Markets are officially going parabolic in a most surprising and confusing explosion.

Defying global headwinds and geopolitical anxiety, Wall Street is charging into uncharted territory, leaving all types of investors lagging far behind.

In a breathtaking 15% extension, the S&P 500 has surged past the 7,000 level for the first time since January, actively carving out new all-time highs.

Not wanting to be left out of the party, the Nasdaq is joining the rampage, sitting just a few points away from its own October record.

This ecstatic price action is heavily driven by shifting diplomatic narratives and massive short-squeezes.

Adding to the bullish confidence, Scott Bessent delivered a speech today maintaining the view that private credit stress will not develop into a systemic event – While the market cheered the reassurance, some traders couldn’t help but be reminded of Ben Bernanke’s infamous "subprime is contained" comments back in 2007.

The fundamental reality, however, is that this entire run is built on a still uncertain foundation.

The current market ecstasy will be completely contingent on tomorrow's restarting US-Iran diplomatic talks in Pakistan.

The prediction markets still show only a 37% chance of a peace deal by April 30, and crude oil remains uncomfortably steady above $90 as the Strait of Hormuz remains under US Blockade.

This geopolitical dynamic will essentially hold markets hostage: If tomorrow's talks break down, this historic, surprising run could quickly evaporate into a painful bear trap.

Keep a close eye on the headlines.

Read More:

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The Stock Market picture is continues to show outperformance from the Tech Services Mega Caps while defensive stocks lag behind.

Microsoft and Tesla are the leaders of this enormous bull run, respectively closing up 4.56% and 7.84%.

Tomorrow's Stock Market action will definitely be exciting.

Tomorrow's key earnings will look at TSM, BNY, Netflix and Pepsico.

The final reports for financials are underway, but these pale in importance compared to the huge Mega cap numbers releasing next week.

What a run in Tech-linked assets!

Cryptos and Nasdaq continue to push higher (despite some end-session profit-taking in the former) and keep outperforming the other asset classes.

Metals and Safe-Havens are not able to withstand the euphoric sentiment – An important test will be coming after them in tomorrow's session.

FX movement remains quite muted, but the Aussie Dollar is doing its own thing, elevating above its Currency counterparts ever since the Ceasefire started.

As a risk currency, it will also face an important test with tomorrow's US-Iran talks.

The next 24 hours will prove to be an important test for Markets, with once again a fleet of Central Bank speeches – The most important one will be from Fed's Williams (8:35 A.M ET).

Some key releases are coming up for Australia (Employment), Chinese & UK GDP to conclude with European CPI figures.

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.

Safe Trades!

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