As of this morning, January 28, 2026, the gold market is experiencing historic volatility as the Federal Reserve prepares to release its policy statement at 2:00 PM EST. A historic milestone as the market navigates a volatile landscape ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.
Gold & market performance today
- Historic Peak: Gold hit a fresh all-time high, trading near $5,312.00 earlier this morning, continuing a parabolic rally that has seen the metal gain over 15% in just seven trading sessions. As of 10 AM EST, gold is trading around $5,200–$5,280, showing some intraday volatility as traders position themselves for the FOMC decision.
- Safe-Haven Surge: The recent rally is being fueled by a "crisis of confidence" in the US dollar, which has hit a four-year low. This follows signals from the White House favoring a weaker dollar to bolster exports.
- Silver prices have mirrored gold's historic rally today, January 28, 2026, currently trading above $112.28 per ounce as the market reaches for new heights ahead of the FOMC announcement. The metal hit a fresh all-time high of $117.69 earlier this week, driven by a "perfect storm" of global supply shortages—exacerbated by China’s recent export ban—and surging industrial demand from the AI and solar sectors.
Impact of the FOMC meeting (January 28, 2026 - Expected 2:00 PM EST)
While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% (According to the futures markets' positioning - CME FedWatch tool), and since the interest rate expectations are largely priced in, the real impact will come from the Fed's "forward guidance" and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
- The "Hawkish Hold" Risk: If Powell suggests the cutting cycle is nearing an end and that 3.5% is the "neutral rate" (the floor for rate cuts), and strikes a hawkish tone on sticky inflation, gold could see a shift in sentiment.
- Dovish Signals: Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges economic cooling or signals a willingness to keep cutting rates despite current volatility, it may support the current gold status.
- Fed Independence: With an investigation into the central bank making headlines and rumors of an imminent new Fed Chair nominee, any sign of the Fed "bowing" to political pressure for lower rates could further fuel the recent appreciation..
Read more: https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/gold-fomc-rally-warning/
Technical analysis XAU/USD 4 Hour chart
Source: Tradingview.com XAU/USD 4 Hour chart Past performance is not indicative of future results.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the bottom of your chart has reached an extreme level of 77.01, significantly above the typical "overbought" threshold of 70. This suggests the market is currently "overheated" and may be vulnerable to a profit-taking correction if the FOMC announcement today provides any hawkish surprises.
- Multiple price gaps have been identified on the chart, with Gap 1 (January 2nd) and Gap 2 (January 16th) representing breakaway and runaway gaps, respectively. However, the most recent one, Gap 3, can potentially be an exhaustion gap.
- Key Levels to Watch, daily Support and resistance levels
PP: 5128.33
S1: 5066.16
S2: 4951.70
S3: 4889.52
R1: 5242.79
R2: 5304.97
R3: 5419.43
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