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Gold - Will the Fed hint at a March cut or just leave the door slightly ajar?
Fed statement and press conference key Will they hint at a rate cut in March? Gold hovering between $2,000 and $2,500 It's been a relatively slow start to trading on Wednesday which isn't surprising considering what's to come later in the day. On another day, earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft may have dictated sentiment in the broader markets but as it is, investors are more focused on events in Washington, so tech aside markets are relatively flat.
by Craig Erlam
Canadian dollar recovers after strong GDP report
The Canadian dollar started the day with slight losses but recovered after Canada's GDP was stronger than expected. In the North American session, USD/CAD is unchanged at 1.3397. Canada's GDP rises 0.2% Canada's economy has been flat in recent months, which meant that the November GDP reading of 0.2% was a welcome, albeit modest improvement.
by Kenneth Fisher
A dovish Fed guidance may not reverse the rout in China and Hong Kong stock markets
China and Hong Kong benchmark stock indices have almost erased last week’s gains. NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI sub-components for January are indicating feeble service activities in China. A weaker US dollar via a dovish forward monetary policy guidance from the Fed is not enough to act as a bullish catalyst for China and Hong stock markets. Technical analysis advocates further potential weakness in the Hang Seng Index in the short to medium term.
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/GBP - Eurozone narrowly avoids recession as UK sees more progress on inflation
Eurozone records zero growth in Q4 UK shop prices rise at a slower pace in January EURGBP rebounds near 2023 lows Economic data confirmed what we already knew earlier today, that the eurozone is not growing and its largest economy - Germany - is on the brink of technical recession. The bloc as a whole could have already been in recession if the data came in as expected but as it turns out that was just avoided, barring any revisions in the coming months.
by Craig Erlam
Euro steady despite German GDP decline
The euro has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0850, up 0.16%. German GDP declines by 0.2% Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, continues to weigh on the bloc with its weak economy.
by Kenneth Fisher
Aussie shrugs off soft retail sales, inflation next
The Australian dollar showed little reaction to the release of Australian retail sales earlier today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6600, down o.15%. Australia's retail sales sink in December The markets were braced for a soft December retail sales but the damage was worse than expected.
by Kenneth Fisher
Market Insights Podcast - FOMC, BOE, and US NFP to stand out in this busy week
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this pivotal week's key economic data and events which may trigger higher volatile movements in the global markets due to the anticipation of market participants' dovish expectations on the forward guidance from the Fed and Bank of England due on Wednesday (31 January), and Thursday (1 February). Also, keep a lookout for the potential negative ramifications of China Evergrande Group's liquidation order by a Hong Kong court, a ma
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/USD - Consolidation as traders eye BoE and Fed meetings
Fed could signal a March rate cut is on the cards Will the BoE forecasts offer any insight on interest rates? Cable continues to consolidate ahead of central bank meetings This is widely expected to be the year of rate cuts for major central banks after a period of aggressive tightening that will soon get inflation back to target. Going into 2024, traders became incredibly optimistic about how many rate cuts we could see this year.
by Craig Erlam
Euro starts week with losses
The euro is lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/US is trading at 1.0806, down 0.44%. When will ECB cut rates? There were no surprises from the European Central Bank, which maintained the benchmark rate at 4.0% at last week's meeting.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD eyes retail sales
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday after an uneventful week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6603, up o.41%. Australian retail sales expected to downturn The markets are braced for a soft retail sales report on Tuesday, with December's consensus estimate standing at -1.0%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Swiss franc recovering, but will SNB shift policy?
The Swiss franc has edged higher on Monday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8618, down 0.25%. SNB concerned about Swiss franc's surge The Swiss National Bank isn't shy about intervening on the currency markets, as it views intervention as an important tool to keep the Swiss franc competitive for export purposes.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold: Pivotal week after being sandwiched by opposing factors
Higher US 10-year Treasury real yield and rising geopolitical risk premium have created a floor and cap for Gold (XAU/USD) at US$2,000 and US$2,040 respectively. Historical volatility of Gold (XAU/USD) has slipped to a 4-month low, increasing the odds of an impending volatility breakout scenario. The direction of the volatility breakout is likely to be reinforced by this Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy guidance. Positive momentum has started to emerge ahead of FOMC.
by Kelvin Wong
USD/CAD - US spending data boost the greenback
US PCE m/m 0.2%, core PCE m/m 0.2%  US spending increases 0.7% in December USDCAD doesn't break double top neckline Inflation, income and spending data for the US was released on Friday and broadly speaking the numbers were in line with expectations, with one outlier. Spending last month increased 0.7%, comfortably exceeding the 0.5% that was expected. It also came on top of the upward revision to the November reading, which increased to 0.4% from 0.2% previously.
by Craig Erlam
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