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Nasdaq 100: Sandwiched, watch the US 10-year Treasury yield next
Nasdaq 100 has exhibited short-term intraday wild gyrations of 3% to 4% in opposite directions since last week. Today’s data focus will be on US non-farm payrolls and ISM Services PMI for April to offer clues on whether the stagflation risk narrative is still alive. Macro factors such as the movement of the US 10-year Treasury yield are likely to take over the driver's seat over micro factors (earnings results) in the next two weeks. Key levels on the US 10-year Treasury yield to watch are 4.70
03-05-2024 05:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD jumps after Fed says rate hike unlikely
The Australian dollar has steadied after two straight days of sharp swings. AUD/USD is up 0.14%, trading at 0.6532 at the time of writing in the North American session. It has been a roller-coaster for the Australian dollar this week.
02-05-2024 10:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Canadian dollar edges higher as Fed pauses again
USD/CAD is steady on Thursday and is trading at 1.3720, down 0.14% at the time of writing. Powell says inflation still too high to lower rates The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark rate in the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% for a six straight time at the Wednesday meeting. Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed was not yet ready to lower rates, pointing the finger at high inflation.
02-05-2024 08:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY slides – did Tokyo intervene?
It has been a remarkable week for the yen, which has exhibited sharp swings throughout the week. The Japanese yen fell as much as 1% earlier and on Thursday but has pared most of those losses. USD/JPY has risen 0.38% to 155.19 at the time of writing. In the Asian session, the yen fell as low as 157.55 but then recovered to precisely 153.
02-05-2024 06:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY calm ahead of Fed decision
Japanese yen is trading quietly on Wednesday. USD/JPY is trading at 157.68, down 0.07% at the time of writing. Fed expected to hold rates The Federal Reserve meets later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for a sixth straight time.
01-05-2024 11:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD stabilizes after taking a tumble, Fed next
The Australian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after sliding 1.4% a day earlier. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6489 at the time of writing in the North American session. Australian dollar slides after soft retail sales Retail sales in Australia fell 0.4% m/m in March, following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in February and shy of the market estimate of 0.2%.
01-05-2024 09:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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NZ dollar shrugs after soft jobs report
The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Thursday, after a sharp decline of 1.5% a day earlier. NZD/USD is trading higher 0.08% on the day at 0.5890, at the time of writing. New Zealand’s employment declines New Zealand’s labor market is showing signs of cracks.
01-05-2024 06:02 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Euro dips as eurozone GDP expands
The euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0703, down 0.17%. Eurozone GDP climbs, inflation dips The eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the highest rate since the third quarter of 2022.
30-04-2024 10:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD: Sideways within a medium-term downtrend
Eurozone preliminary core CPI rate for April continued to inch lower at 2.7% y/y, its slowest pace of inflationary pressure since February 2022. 2-year and 10-year Eurozone sovereign bonds/US Treasuries yield spread discounts have continued to widen which supports a potential medium to long-term bearish trend on the EUR/USD. Watch the 1.0740 key short-term resistance on the EUR/USD ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision on 1 May. Since its December 2023 high of 1.1140, the EUR/USD has tra
30-04-2024 07:16 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY: An overextended intraday rally makes it vulnerable to a squeeze down with rumoured talks of FX intervention
USD/JPY extended its rally to hit 159.60 key long-term resistance (also the April 1990 secular swing high). Today’s Asian session's swift upmove in USD/JPY has led to an increase in its volatility condition which increases the risk of FX intervention. Abrupt intraday movement in USD/JPY that wiped out earlier intraday gains has the hallmark of a suspected FX intervention. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY: Persistent JPY bearish trend intact despite growing intervention
29-04-2024 03:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/JPY: Persistent JPY bearish trend intact despite growing intervention risk
Tokyo’s core-core inflation for April came in at 1.8% y/y, its slowest pace of increase since September 2022 & below BoJ’s inflation target of 2%. The latest set of softer-than-expected Tokyo’s CPI may push back the timing of the next BoJ’s interest rate hike. Widening of US Treasuries-JGBs yield spread premium is likely to support a further potential upmove in the USD/JPY. The current upmove in USD/JPY since mid-March 2024 has been accompanied by a lower volatility condition versus its more abr
25-04-2024 22:38 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Pound edges higher after soft US GDP
The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down?
25-04-2024 10:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Euro rises after German consumer confidence improves
The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0726, up 0.25%. German consumer confidence hits two-year high Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved in April and again in the May forecast, as the German consumer is showing signs of optimism.
25-04-2024 05:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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