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Another day, another rollercoaster ride
Volatility is the only thing that appears to be certain in the markets right now, as European stocks pare losses to even sneak into positive territory on the day while US futures now eye only a small decline after the bank holiday weekend. The old adage goes that the market hates uncertainty and while that has clearly been evident at times over the last couple of weeks, there's no doubt that investors continue to be tempted back in at the slightest hint of diplomacy winning the day. Even after
22-02-2022 10:43 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil and gold jump on Ukraine news
Oil prices leap higher as Ukraine crisis worsens If you’ve read the note this far, you know what comes next. Oil prices surged higher overnight on thinned US holiday liquidity after President Putin crushed the summit olive branch and commenced “security operations” in his breakaway satellite provinces of the Ukraine.
22-02-2022 04:35 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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Dollar rises on Ukraine developments
Ukraine jitters raise risk apprehension With US markets closed for a holiday overnight, volumes and volatility were muted in currency markets, sparing them the worst of the ravages seen elsewhere. Still, the US dollar did receive a modest haven bid, and the old adage of always buying US dollars in a war is as good today as it was all those decades ago when I started my trading career.
22-02-2022 04:27 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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Asia equities slump on Ukraine developments
Putin moves in 'peacekeepers' into Eastern Ukraine The incipient rally seen yesterday has been snuffed out overnight after President Putin pushed back on US summit hopes and then recognised the two breakaway areas of the Ukraine and began “security” operations there. That dose of reality in dealing with the Russian President saw European stocks slump and with US markets closed, US index futures tumbled.
22-02-2022 04:02 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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Russian “peacekeepers" move sink markets
Putin recognises breakaway regions The clutching at straws rally we saw in Asian and early European hours yesterday quickly came to an end as Russian President Vladimir Putin quashed any certainty over a US summit regarding Ukraine. He followed that up by recognising the two Ukrainian separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as sovereign states.
22-02-2022 03:46 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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Oil rises, gold in choppy waters
Oil marches higher as optimism fades around Ukraine It's been another volatile session in the oil market, with doubts over US-Russian diplomatic efforts lifting prices. Oil prices were declining early in the day at the prospect of a Biden-Putin meeting but as hopes around that have unravelled, the price of oil has climbed. This is despite a nuclear deal between the US and Iran seemingly being close which could bring 1.3 million barrels per day back into the markets, alleviating some of those p
21-02-2022 11:50 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Another rollercoaster ride
The rollercoaster ride that is 2022 is continuing at the start of the week as European equities relinquish early gains to make heavy losses. The week got off to a decent start, following reports of France brokering a meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. While the West has continued to warn of an imminent invasion, with Russia apparently following the playbook for such a move, a meeting between the two leaders increases the potential for a diplomatic resolution. But as we've seen so of
21-02-2022 11:46 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Yen steady ahead of BoJ Core CPI
The Japanese yen has started the week quietly and is trading slightly below the 115 line. Investors eye Japanese inflation releases The focus will be on Japanese inflation indicators in the coming week, with three events on the economic calendar. Like other major economies, Japan is dealing with a rise in inflation, although the pace has been much more moderate than what we're seeing in the UK or the US.
21-02-2022 09:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Pound rises on strong Services PMI
The pound has posted gains at the start of the week, punching above the 1.36 line. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3634, up 0.35% on the day. PMIs points to UK rebound The UK economy continues to grow and has rebounded after a bump from Omicron in January.
21-02-2022 05:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Oil eases, gold drifting
Oil eases on potential Ukraine summit A potential reduction of Ukraine tensions following the US/Russia summit announcement this morning has seen some sellers emerge in oil in Asia. Oil has had quite the rally in my absence, driven by the predicted Ukraine tensions, and a world economy that appears to be moving quickly towards living with omicron.
21-02-2022 04:55 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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Dollar dips on talk of Biden/Putin meet
US/Russia summit lifts FX risk sentiment Most of the major currencies appear to be around their year-end levels as the end of the month approaches, having weathered a US dollar storm over the first five weeks of 2022. The prospect of interest rate rises outside of the US, and a stubborn long end of the US curve has seen the US dollar retreat in the past two weeks, as the kitchen sink buy-US dollar-trade was slowly squeezed out.
21-02-2022 04:19 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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The kitchen sink trade passed sooner than expected
A belated good morning from Jakarta where I am on day two of managed isolation and where, unfortunately, my hotel room’s internet ceased functioning last night. Back home in New Zealand, it’s been nearly two months since I looked at the markets closely, but the effects of the pandemic behind the Great Wall of Jacinda have been clear to see and most certainly have played out similarly in other parts of the world. The ham-fisted quantitative easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has caused on
21-02-2022 04:03 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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Equities jump on Ukraine talks
Asia equities mixed US equities closed lower on Friday as heightened Ukraine tensions weighed on sentiment, complicated by a long weekend with the US closed for President’s Day today. The S&P 500 fell by 0.72%, the Nasdaq by 1.23%, and the Dow Jones by 0.68%.
21-02-2022 03:55 GMT by Jeffrey Halley
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US Close: Tough to hold risk into long weekend, Housing Sales Impress
Investors are having a hard time holding onto risk as the likelihood that the standoff between the West and Russia will ultimately lead to some ground conflict. US stocks gave up earlier gains after the Russian press confirmed reports of the evacuation of residents from East Ukraine to Russia and then turned negative after reports over an explosion in Donetsk.
18-02-2022 13:47 GMT by Edward Moya
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Week Ahead - Markets remain volatile
There's been no shortage of volatility in the markets so far this year and it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon. The focus has shifted slightly in recent weeks from monetary policy to geopolitics as Russian troops have built up on the Ukrainian border and the West has warned of an imminent invasion.
18-02-2022 13:33 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil falls while gold sparkles
Oil slides as the US nears nuclear accord with Iran Reports of the US and Iran nearing a new nuclear deal couldn't have come at a better time and oil prices are slipping at the prospect of more than a million barrels of crude re-entering the market. In the absence of a deal, we could already be talking about triple-figure oil prices. Of course, the risk of a Russian invasion remains heightened so there's plenty of potential for oil prices to head higher once more if troops do cross the border
18-02-2022 08:12 GMT by Craig Erlam
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