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Equities unwinding the “reduced operations” rally Equity markets spent most of last night unwinding the Russian “reduced operations” knee jerk rally, as even the most ardent FOMO bull came to realise the statement didn’t amount to much. Going forward, we can still expect more of these “peace in our time” knee jerk rallies at the slightest hint of progress in peace talks, no matter how tenuous the reasoning. The S&P 500 fell by 0.63%, the Nasdaq slumped by 1.21%, while the Dow Jones eased by 0.

31-03-2022 04:34 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Oil slides on SPR, gold drifting

Oil tumbles on Biden SPR hopes Oil prices moved sideways overnight, Brent crude rising just 1.25% to USD 112.60, and WTI rising 2.25% to USD 107.45 a barrel. Both contracts modestly unwound the Ukraine knee jerk trade yesterday. In Asia, oil prices have slumped as stories started circulating that US President Biden will announce a multi-month SPR release today that could total 180 million barrels, with suggestions that other IEA members could join in a reserve release after their meeting on Fr

31-03-2022 04:29 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar index testing support

The US dollar retreated overnight once again, even as Ukraine hopes faded as quickly as they began. US bond yields moved lower once again, undermining the greenback.

31-03-2022 04:19 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

SPR Rumours Send Oil Lower

Biden expected to release oil from reserves Asian markets are being dominated today by the news that US President Biden is apparently considering a material release of oil from its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), which could total a million barrels a day and potentially total 180 million barrel. That is roughly 1/3rd of the total SPR.

31-03-2022 03:48 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

USD/JPY - BoJ on the defensive

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam talks about USDJPY as the Fed and BoJ head on diverging monetary policy paths.

30-03-2022 16:52 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Close: Stocks edge lower, ADP in-line, Oil pares gains as gas demand continues to fall, Gold rallies as de-escalation optimism fades, Bitcoin hovers

US stocks declined as investors watched March inflation skyrocket in Europe, while waiting for any progress towards a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal. Stocks are going to have trouble rallying as geopolitics and inflation risks won't be going away anytime soon.

30-03-2022 15:52 GMT by Edward Moya

Pound gains ground on broad USD retreat

The British pound is finally in positive territory, after a nasty slide over most of the past week. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3145, up 0.39% on the day. On Thursday, the UK releases Final GDP for the fourth quarter, which is expected to confirm the initial reading of 1.0%.

30-03-2022 12:22 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 313)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the latest on the markets in light of progress in Ukraine/Russia talks and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

30-03-2022 11:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZ bus. confidence soft, but NZ dollar rises

The New Zealand dollar has extended its rally as it closes in on the symbolic 70 level. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6975, up 0.59% on the day. NZ business confidence remains ice cold Business confidence for March posted a reading deep in negative territory.

30-03-2022 10:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rebounds, gold stabilizes

Oil recovers ahead of OPEC+ meeting Oil prices are heading higher once more on Wednesday as the prospect of a ceasefire being close quickly faded and the economic war between Russia and its "unfriendly" trading partners ramped up. The Kremlin's decision to demand gas payments in roubles and threaten similar actions on other commodities that its trading partners rely upon risks stoking shortages and recessions. There's seemingly no end in sight for the increasingly tight oil market and should R

30-03-2022 08:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

Ceasefire hopes short-lived

Stock markets are giving back some of their gains on Wednesday, as scepticism grows around Russia's intentions following yesterday's announcements. Reports on Tuesday suggested we're finally seeing a de-escalation in Ukraine, as Russia indicated its intentions to scale back certain military operations. While that was initially viewed as a first step towards a ceasefire, it wasn't long before doubts started to creep in which weighed on sentiment once more. All we're seeing here is cautious opti

30-03-2022 08:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil and gold pare losses

Lots of noise, little substance for oil Oil prices did the Neville Chamberlain's “peace in our time” gag reflex overnight after Russia’s “reduced operations” comments. Oil prices traded in a 10-dollar range and initially tumbled after the announcement, Brent crude touching USD 105.00, and WTI USD 98.50 a barrel.

30-03-2022 04:19 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Dollar falls on higher risk sentiment

Ukraine talks weigh on dollar The US dollar retreated overnight, led by USD/JPY which collapsed to 122.00. Hopes of an improvement in the Ukraine situation, after comments by Russia also lifted market sentiment, reducing the US dollar's haven bid.

30-03-2022 04:10 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

“Reduced operations” sparks Neville Chamberlain relief rally

Ukraine talks send equities up, dollar down I mentioned yesterday that even the slightest hint of any good news emerging from the Ukraine-Russia talks would spark a relief rally. So, it came to pass as Russia offered to “reduce operations” in the north of Ukraine around Kyiv.

30-03-2022 03:52 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asia equities are mostly higher

Ukraine talks spark equity stampede The first sign of good news, no matter how tenuous, from the Ukraine-Russia talks resulted in a mass stampede into equities with the FOMO gnomes pricing in “peak-Ukraine.” European markets soared and the rally continued into New York, where excellent data and lower US yields boosted sentiment. The S&P 500 closed 1.23% higher, the Nasdaq jumped by 1.84%, and the Dow Jones finished 0.97% higher.

30-03-2022 03:49 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Oil tumbles, gold pares losses

Oil Crude prices pared losses after a pivotal round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks did not lead to a ceasefire. Initially, oil had a precipitous fall after Moscow said they would reduce military presence near Kyiv.

29-03-2022 16:19 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks rally as Russia-Ukraine talks advance, 2s10s curve briefly inverted, bitcoin exhaustion

US stocks rallied after Russia-Ukraine talks brought hope that a potential de-escalation is nearing. Initially, risk appetite roared higher after Russia negotiator Medinsky said Russia will 'drastically, cardinally' cut military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv. Progress in talks was not widely expected so Wall Street delivered a strong reaction.

29-03-2022 16:18 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY - Running into major resistance

Interventions on the way? The rally in USD/JPY has massively accelerated in recent weeks as markets and the Fed have become increasingly hawkish on US interest rates. This has happened at a time when many central banks are heading in that direction, even the ECB which at one point looked years away from interest rates above 0%. While they haven't yet conceded on the kind of rate hikes that the markets are pricing in, they're certainly heading in that direction. The BoJ is the outlier here.

29-03-2022 12:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro surges on Ukraine talks

It's been a dramatic afternoon, as EUR/USD has rocketed in the North American session, gaining 1.16%. The pair is currently trading just above the 1.11 level. Euro flies as peace talks show progress The euro has been showing limited movement for a week, which led me to caption Monday's post as, "Euro looking for direction".

29-03-2022 09:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil edges higher, gold eases

Oil higher as political OPEC+ prepares to continue gradual output increases Oil prices are a little higher today, slightly paring heavy losses on Monday sustained on the back of intensifying lockdowns in China as the government has enacted harsh measures to contain the Covid outbreak. The country remains committed to its zero-Covid policy which will ultimately weigh on crude demand in the near term.

29-03-2022 08:46 GMT by Craig Erlam

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