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Flip-flop
It was another night of tail-chasing overnight, this time led by Goldman Sachs who said a US recession is a real possibility and that the US dollar might fall as a result. That of course would lead to terminal Fed Funds rates sooner, so sell US dollars and buy US bonds.
by Jeffrey Halley
US Close - Mixed start for stocks, Empire disappoints, Oil rallies, Gold rebounds, Bitcoin struggles
US stocks traded mix as investors assess soft Chinese and US data and the potential for stagflation risks and a much sooner recession.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold onto the 4,000 level as a six-week decline seems a bit overdone. There is a lot of value on the table right now and some investors are starting to look at a steady stream of weaker-than-expected economic data as a likely catalyst that will force central bankers to ease up on the hawkish talk.  Empire The Empire State index posted a
by Edward Moya
Oil recovers, gold flat
Oil near recent highs after falling on Chinese data Oil prices have recovered earlier losses that came in the wake of the Chinese figures. While lockdowns have been priced in over the weeks, the numbers were much worse than expected which weighed heavily on crude.
by Craig Erlam
Further pressure on central banks
It's been a relatively calm start to trading this week, with Europe a mixed bag at the close and the US a little lower. The weaker Chinese figures overnight will be of some concern at a time of slowing economic activity around the world. Still, as has been the case so often in recent years, the lockdowns will have heavily distorted the data.
by Craig Erlam
Pound yawns after Bailey warnings
The British pound is trading quietly on Monday, as the currency markets have started the week with a whimper. BoE's Bailey says dark times ahead BoE Governor Bailey testified before lawmakers earlier today, and his message was a grim one. The BoE has predicted that soaring inflation could top 10%, and Bailey today admitted that "this is a bad situation to be in".  Bailey said that the Ukraine war could cause a further energy shock and that his concern about the surge in food prices was "apocal
by Kenneth Fisher
CAD rallies on US consumer confidence
The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Monday, as it trades at the 1.29 line. Weak US consumer confidence boosts Canadian dollar The Canadian dollar ended the week in splendid fashion, with gains of over 1 per cent. This marked the Canadian dollar's best one-day performance this year and recovered all of the week's losses.
by Kenneth Fisher
EU forecast: growth down, inflation up
The euro is drifting at the start of the week, as EUR/USD trades slightly above the 1.04 level. The euro remains under pressure, as it continues to weaken against the US dollar. EUR/USD hasn't mustered a winning week since March and hit a dubious milestone on Thursday, closing below the 1.04 line for the first time since January 2003.
by Kenneth Fisher
Week Ahead – Wall Street Whipsawed
It was a tremendous week of market volatility for every asset class on Wall Street.  It is still all about inflation and what will be the reaction from central banks.  A challenging inflation and growth mix have driven investor concerns that the Fed won’t be able to deliver a soft landing.
by Edward Moya
US Close - A terrible week ends on a positive note, Crude prices rallying hard on optimism over China's COVID situation, Gold pummeled
Wall Street is ready to close the books on this trading week.  US stocks are finishing on a high note as investors take comfort from a round of Fed speak that suggests financial markets won’t have to price in even more tightening of financial conditions over the next couple of FOMC decisions.  Fed’s Daly supports the idea of sticking with 50 basis-point rate hikes at the next two meetings.  Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his support for raising rates at the June and July policy meetings,
by Edward Moya
Euro under pressure, falls below 1.04
The euro has stabilized on Friday, after a dreadful Thursday in which EUR/USD fell 1.26%. Russian announces sanctions The euro continues to struggle and is trading at lows last seen in January 2017. The Ukraine war has taken a bite out of the eurozone economy and sent the euro tumbling.
by Kenneth Fisher
British pound's woes continue
The British pound can't seem to find its footing. GBP/USD hasn't had a daily winning session since May 4th and closed on Thursday below the 1.22 line, for the first time since May 2020.
by Kenneth Fisher
New Zealand dollar stabilizes
The New Zealand dollar is headed for its seventh consecutive losing week.  NZD/USD has declined 2.51% this week and the currency is trading at July 2020 lows. The currency plunged 1.01% on Thursday but has steadied on Friday and is trading at 0.6244. New Zealand's Manufacturing Index slowed to 51.2 in April, down from 53.8 in March.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil in choppy waters, gold slides
Oil markets remain volatile Oil prices finished modestly higher overnight, after another chop-fest session which saw Brent crude and WTI fall nearly four dollars intraday. Powell’s soothing comments around 0.50% rate hikes stabilised sentiment in New York, but it is likely that the Russian natural gas sanctions on some European importers were the reason that oil rebounded.
by Jeffrey Halley
Asian currencies stage a technical rebound 
Japanese yen pares gains The US dollar index shrugged off a plunging USD/JPY overnight, climbing an impressive 0.72% to 104.75 overnight, where it remains in Asian trading. The heavy weighting of the euro in the index explains the dollar index rally overnight, assisted by sterling easing as well.
by Jeffrey Halley
Asian equities stage a technical rebound
Asian markets rally on Powell comments Asia-Pacific equities are staging a relief rally today after Wall Street stabilised late in the session as Jerome Powell calmed nerves over potential 0.75% rate hikes. The rebound of cryptos and stable coins also lifted sentiment.
by Jeffrey Halley
Damage control
New York had another tumultuous session overnight, dominated by noise from the crypto sector where (un)stable coins continued to suffer from untethering. Either the crypto noise was pushing equities down, or vice versa, I know not.
by Jeffrey Halley
Oil edges lower, gold hurt
Oil Oil prices remain a volatile trade as the crude demand outlook grows more uncertain as inflation remains uncomfortably high and has accelerated global growth concerns. ​ The risk-off tone on Wall Street is leading to a much stronger US dollar which is weighing on oil prices. Many energy traders remain fixated over the EU’s potential ban on Russian crude, which now seems to be losing momentum. ​ The EU is struggling to get Hungary’s support, which could suggest this embargo won’t happen anyti
by Edward Moya
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