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European equity markets are a little flat on Wednesday, with inflation data this morning once again offering a reminder of the struggles that lie ahead. Not that we need reminding given all of the data we've seen recently. And then there are the gloomy forecasts from central banks, with even the Fed now targeting a softish landing which feels very much like the stage before a mild recession.

18-05-2022 09:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar dips after WPI

After three successive winning sessions, the Australian dollar has reversed directions on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading slightly above the symbolic 70 level. Wage growth ticks higher It wasn't all that long ago that RBA Governor Lowe would reiterate that there would be no rate hikes until wage growth hit 3%.

18-05-2022 07:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil falls on Venezuala and EU, gold dips

Venezuela/Europe send oil lower Overnight, oil prices touched multi-week highs until the US announced it was starting a process, potentially leading to an easing of sanctions on Venezuela. That immediately saw oil reverse all its impressive intraday gains and both Brent crude and WTI finished slightly lower on the day.

18-05-2022 04:51 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar falls as risk sentiment rises

US dollar retreats on higher risk appetite The US dollar weakened overnight despite US yields moving higher and hawkish Fed officials. Like equity markets, currency markets concentrated on positive US data, and a fall in oil prices which lifted risk-seeking sentiment, although I believe this is all part of a bull market correction.

18-05-2022 04:44 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities are mostly higher

Asia markets ex-China show gains US equities rallied strongly overnight as US retail sales, industrial production, and manufacturing outperformed, while hawkish comments from Powell and former Chair Bernanke were ignored. The S&P 500 shot higher by 2.02%, the Nasdaq leapt 2.76%, and the Dow Jones gained 1.35%.

18-05-2022 04:15 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Multiple directions

Opposing inputs have sent asset classes in different directions, each choosing, it seems, the information that supported their respective paths of least resistance. Former Fed Governor Ben Bernanke warned about stagflation overnight, quite the statement from a former heavyweight.

18-05-2022 03:58 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Japanese yen remains directionless

The Japanese yen has posted slight gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.32, up 0.17% on the day. The US dollar pummelled the yen in the months of March and April, but the yen has held its own in May.

17-05-2022 13:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound soars on strong jobs data

The British pound continues to rally on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2463 in the European session, up 1.15% on the day. UK employment numbers sparkle The tight UK labor market is getting even tighter, as reflected in the March employment report.

17-05-2022 11:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All about retail today, stocks rebound, dollar drop, bitcoin follows risk rally

US stocks are rallying as traders got to digest a steady stream of positive news across the world. Turnaround Tuesday started when China took the first steps to lockdown exit in Shanghai and as the nation’s top regulators discussed easing its regulatory crackdown. The US session got started with big retail earnings that suggest the consumer is still strong and showed surprisingly underlying strength within the home improvement category. A solid retail sales report and key earnings from Home

17-05-2022 10:48 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil surges, gold stronger

Oil Crude prices initially surged as China’s fight against COVID appears to be headed in the right direction, but gave up a good amount of gains after US officials signaled that the strategy on Russian crude could switch from embargo to tariffs. If the West decides to slap tariffs on Russian crude instead of an embargo, that would keep supplies on the market, which should put a cap on the recent crude rally. The oil market remains tight but if the EU embraces the strategy of putting tarif

17-05-2022 10:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Rebound continues

Stock markets are in positive territory once more on Tuesday as investors continue to see value after a substantial sell-off in recent weeks. I'm not particularly convinced about the sustainability of such a move against the backdrop of high inflation, much higher interest rates and probable recessions but there's no doubting that the scale of the declines recently was bound to attract some back in. There's plenty of economic data and central bank speak to come this week that could easily make i

17-05-2022 10:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil moving higher, gold stable

Oil could go much higher Oil prices have hit their highest levels since early March as Europe continues to work towards a Russian embargo and China looks to ease Covid restrictions. The lockdowns have offset some of the concerns over supply disruptions amid Russian sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.

17-05-2022 10:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie storms past 70 line

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7034, up 0.93% on the day. Australian dollar recovers After falling to a June 2020 low late last week, the Australian dollar has stormed back with a gain of 230 points since Thursday.

17-05-2022 07:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil has support, gold recovers

Oil prices remain firm Oil prices have remained near multi-week highs this week, supported by surging gasoline and distillate prices in the US, and fears around an EU ban on Russian oil imports remaining in play. If markets start pricing in peak-Shanghai-lockdowns, that will be an additional supportive tailwind for oil prices. Brent crude rose by 2.45% to USD 113.85 a barrel overnight, where it remains in subdued Asian trading.

17-05-2022 05:50 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar edges lower

Modest US dollar strength in range-trading Asian session The dollar index fell again overnight, as recessionary concerns appear to be prompting the start of a long-overdue short-term correction to US dollar strength. Resistance at 105.00 held fast on Friday and overnight, the index continued its modest descent, falling 0.27% to 104.19, where it remains in Asia.

17-05-2022 05:37 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities edge higher

Asian markets rise on hopes that China will ease lockdowns The seeds of a general relief rally didn’t land on Wall Street equities overnight, which had a mixed session, likely because it was driven elsewhere by recession concerns. The S&P 500 fell by 0.39%, the Nasdaq fell by 1.20%, and the Dow Jones edged 0.12% higher.

17-05-2022 04:18 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Flip-flop

It was another night of tail-chasing overnight, this time led by Goldman Sachs who said a US recession is a real possibility and that the US dollar might fall as a result. That of course would lead to terminal Fed Funds rates sooner, so sell US dollars and buy US bonds.

17-05-2022 04:00 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US Close - Mixed start for stocks, Empire disappoints, Oil rallies, Gold rebounds, Bitcoin struggles

US stocks traded mix as investors assess soft Chinese and US data and the potential for stagflation risks and a much sooner recession. The S&P 500 is trying to hold onto the 4,000 level as a six-week decline seems a bit overdone. There is a lot of value on the table right now and some investors are starting to look at a steady stream of weaker-than-expected economic data as a likely catalyst that will force central bankers to ease up on the hawkish talk. Empire The Empire State index posted a

16-05-2022 15:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil recovers, gold flat

Oil near recent highs after falling on Chinese data Oil prices have recovered earlier losses that came in the wake of the Chinese figures. While lockdowns have been priced in over the weeks, the numbers were much worse than expected which weighed heavily on crude.

16-05-2022 13:06 GMT by Craig Erlam

Further pressure on central banks

It's been a relatively calm start to trading this week, with Europe a mixed bag at the close and the US a little lower. The weaker Chinese figures overnight will be of some concern at a time of slowing economic activity around the world. Still, as has been the case so often in recent years, the lockdowns will have heavily distorted the data.

16-05-2022 13:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

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