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Fed minutes confirm half-point hike expectations for next 2 meetings, another round of soft US data, RBNZ hikes again, bitcoin stuck below USD 30k

US stocks edged higher as investors anticipate a quickly weakening economy will force the Fed into tapping the breaks with their tightening cycle. The FOMC minutes are over three weeks old, but they did give a glimmer of hope that they could adjust their policy tightening stance later in the year. The Fed mostly sees 50 basis point increases appropriate at the next couple of meetings as they are behind the curve with fighting inflation. The Fed is optimistic about the economy, but they are

25-05-2022 16:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 333)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya previews the day's market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed markets, the latest round of US economic data, President Biden's comments on China, the RBNZ rate decision and cryptos.

25-05-2022 15:46 GMT by Edward Moya

Swiss franc rally takes a breather

Swiss banks are traditionally known for avoiding publicity, and the same can be said for the Swiss franc, which is usually fairly steady and doesn't make the headlines. Earlier this month, however, the Swissie hit a milestone, as it achieved parity with the US dollar, the first time that's happened since December 2019. Swiss franc flirts with parity The Swiss franc was steamrolled by the US dollar in April, as USD/CHF surged by 5.48%, its best one-month performance since May 2012.

25-05-2022 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil consolidates, gold dips ahead of FOMC

Risks remain tilted to the upside in oil Oil prices are continuing to consolidate around the upper end of their trading range over the last couple of months. Concerns about Covid cases in Beijing and global growth are continuing to prevent a much larger rally in oil prices as a result of the undersupply in the market, a potential EU ban on Russian imports and the reopening in Shanghai. We're seeing gains again today of around 1% but these are still relatively small and represent a slowing of mom

25-05-2022 11:15 GMT by Craig Erlam

Awaiting FOMC minutes

Stock markets are a little flat on Wednesday as investors await minutes from the May FOMC meeting. I'm not sure what exactly investors are holding out for. A lot has changed in the markets over the last few weeks and we've had a lot of Fed commentary in that time that is arguably more relevant than almost anything we can take from the minutes. That said, this is nothing new and investors are always wary of what could happen.

25-05-2022 11:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro rally hits a wall

Euro falls sharply The euro has reversed directions on Wednesday and is sharply lower. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0663, down 0.67% on the day.

25-05-2022 09:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZ dollar jumpy after RBNZ decision

The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday. NZD/USD posted strong gains in the Asian session but has surrendered most of those gains. RBNZ shows hawkish teeth The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered on expectations, with a 0.50% rate hike which brings the cash rate to 2.0%, its highest level since 2016.

25-05-2022 06:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil and gold head higher

White House unnerves oil markets Oil prices continued to range trade overnight, finishing almost unchanged in New York. Asia, though, has seen both Brent crude and WTI rise.

25-05-2022 05:33 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar’s orderly retreat continues

Recession jitters send US dollar lower The US dollar eased once again overnight, as US recession fears continue to lead to a repricing lower of Fed tightening expectations. With quantitative tightening starting next week and no signs of inflation falling, that may be more hope than reality.

25-05-2022 05:25 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

A mixed day for Asian equities

Nasdaq slides, Asia in mixed mood Overnight, a procession of poor US data delivered another kidney punch to US equities, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq bearing the brunt once again, as the more value-heavy Dow Jones remained steady. The S&P 500 fell by 0.80% as the Nasdaq slumped by 2.35%, while the Dow Jones managed a tiny 0.16% gain.

25-05-2022 04:45 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Least worst choices

RBNZ hikes by 50-bps The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised policy rates by 0.50% to 2.0% this morning, with Governor Orr setting a hawkish tone in the press conference afterwards. In the statement itself, the RBNZ’s “least worst choices” policy seemed to imply that although external risks remained, the domestic economy was strong and could tolerate tighter monetary conditions.

25-05-2022 04:32 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Japanese yen rises on strong BoJ CPI

After several days of trading sideways, the yen has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 126.58, down 1.02% on the day.

24-05-2022 13:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rangebound, gold shines

Oil looking for direction Oil prices remain directionless as energy traders try to assess how significant the deceleration in economic activity will be for the short-term crude demand outlook. The oil market remains tight but the COVID situation in China points to a gradual pickup in demand and that might keep this market rangebound a while longer. Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan noted that the kingdom has done what it can for global oil markets and that should mean production increases will rema

24-05-2022 12:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Oh Snap, wrath of US data misses, stock selling resumes, bitcoin in danger

US stocks are quickly giving up yesterday’s gains after a wrath of US economic data signaled broad weakness across large parts of the economy. Everything is weakening at a faster clip than anyone expected and that does not bode well for the US consumer and for short-term outlooks for equities. The dollar is sliding as Treasury yields plunge as risk aversion returns following a gloomy outlook from snap and disappointing US PMI and housing data. Snap slides Snap shares plunged after the social

24-05-2022 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY - Head and shoulders breakout?

Major correction on the cards? The rally in USDJPY from early March to early May was huge, driven by a combination of a soaring greenback and a BoJ determined to support its yield curve control policy tool. But the last couple of weeks have brought some relief in the pair, driven primarily by the dollar paring gains against the broader market. And the pair may have just broken below an interesting technical support level that could signal a more significant correction. A head and shoulders a

24-05-2022 11:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/GBP - Further gains to come?

Hawkish ECB boost the single currency The euro has caught a strong bid against the pound in recent days on the back of some very hawkish commentary from the ECB and poor economic data in the UK. The ECB will become the latest central bank to concede on the inflation argument and raise rates in July and September, as per President Christine Lagarde's blog, although some support an even more aggressive approach. That's boosted the euro at a time when the UK economy is facing the prospect of a r

24-05-2022 11:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro rises to 1-month high on Lagarde

The euro has extended its gains on Tuesday. EUR/USD has broken above the 1.07 line for the first time since April 26th. ECB's Lagarde sends euro soaring The euro was red hot on Monday, as EUR/USD jumped 1.29%, its best one-day showing this year.

24-05-2022 10:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil drifting, gold edges higher

Oil rally stalls Oil prices are relatively flat on Tuesday as global economic fears and the prospect of tighter restrictions in Beijing take some of the heat out of the rally. Brent and WTI are trading right at the upper end of the range they've been within the last couple of months, with tight supplies, easing restrictions in Shanghai and a potential EU ban on Russian oil imports driving the price higher. As has been the case for months now, there are so many countering forces in the market tha

24-05-2022 07:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

Growth concerns weigh once again

Stock markets are back in the red on Tuesday, with US futures also pointing to a negative start on Wall Street in a couple of hours. These wild swings from one day to the next have become the norm as investors try to pick the bottom in the markets only to be dealt another blow from one negative headline or another. And they continue to come thick and fast, leaving equity markets vulnerable to further drops. Pessimistic Chinese growth forecasts and a profit and revenue warning from Snap appear to

24-05-2022 07:30 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar rally fizzles

The New Zealand dollar has reversed directions after a solid 3-day rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6432, down 0.55% on the day. China jitters weigh on NZ dollar New Zealand's number one trading partner is China, and it's no exaggeration to say that when China sneezes, New Zealand catches a cold.

24-05-2022 07:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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