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AUD drifting ahead of retail sales
The Australian dollar started the week with gains of close to one percent, but has been mostly drifting since then. AUD/USD is trading quietly, just below the 0.71 line. It hasn't been a very good week on the Australian release front, raising concerns that the economy may be slowing down.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil steady, gold dips as US dollar rises
Oil markets slumber Oil prices had another comatose session by their standards, barely rising from the day before. Nevertheless, both Brent crude and WTI have held on to all their recent gains, suggesting the weaker side is the upside in prices for now.
by Jeffrey Halley
Currency markets are quiet
US dollar edges higher after FOMC minutes The US dollar staged a modest relief rally overnight after the FOMC Minutes came out. Nevertheless, some decent ranges were seen across the majors.
by Jeffrey Halley
 ​FOMC minutes settle nerves
FOMC to stick to 50bps moves The FOMC Minutes, released overnight, settled a few nerves temporarily, signalling another couple of 50bps rate hikes in June and July before a pause in September. The dreaded 75bps hike threat was off the agenda and with some slowdowns in recent US data, notably in the housing market, it was enough to spur a relief rally of sorts in US equities and the US dollar. Once again, that is translating to an uneven response by Asian markets thanks to China nerves.
by Jeffrey Halley
Oil higher, gold pares losses after minutes
Oil Crude prices were little changed after the EIA crude oil inventory report showed stockpiles are declining again as refiner activity picked up. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw a big draw of 6 million barrels, with crude stocks now at the lowest levels in over thirty years.
by Edward Moya
Fed minutes confirm half-point hike expectations for next 2 meetings, another round of soft US data, RBNZ hikes again, bitcoin stuck below USD 30k
US stocks edged higher as investors anticipate a quickly weakening economy will force the Fed into tapping the breaks with their tightening cycle. ​ The FOMC minutes are over three weeks old, but they did give a glimmer of hope that they could adjust their policy tightening stance later in the year. ​ The Fed mostly sees 50 basis point increases appropriate at the next couple of meetings as they are behind the curve with fighting inflation. ​ The Fed is optimistic about the economy, but they are
by Edward Moya
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 333)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya previews the day's market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed markets, the latest round of US economic data, President Biden's comments on China, the RBNZ rate decision and cryptos.
by Edward Moya
Swiss franc rally takes a breather
Swiss banks are traditionally known for avoiding publicity, and the same can be said for the Swiss franc, which is usually fairly steady and doesn't make the headlines. Earlier this month, however, the Swissie hit a milestone, as it achieved parity with the US dollar, the first time that's happened since December 2019. Swiss franc flirts with parity The Swiss franc was steamrolled by the US dollar in April, as USD/CHF surged by 5.48%, its best one-month performance since May 2012.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil consolidates, gold dips ahead of FOMC
Risks remain tilted to the upside in oil Oil prices are continuing to consolidate around the upper end of their trading range over the last couple of months. Concerns about Covid cases in Beijing and global growth are continuing to prevent a much larger rally in oil prices as a result of the undersupply in the market, a potential EU ban on Russian imports and the reopening in Shanghai. We're seeing gains again today of around 1% but these are still relatively small and represent a slowing of mom
by Craig Erlam
Awaiting FOMC minutes
Stock markets are a little flat on Wednesday as investors await minutes from the May FOMC meeting. I'm not sure what exactly investors are holding out for. A lot has changed in the markets over the last few weeks and we've had a lot of Fed commentary in that time that is arguably more relevant than almost anything we can take from the minutes. That said, this is nothing new and investors are always wary of what could happen.
by Craig Erlam
Euro rally hits a wall
Euro falls sharply The euro has reversed directions on Wednesday and is sharply lower. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0663, down 0.67% on the day.
by Kenneth Fisher
NZ dollar jumpy after RBNZ decision
The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday. NZD/USD posted strong gains in the Asian session but has surrendered most of those gains. RBNZ shows hawkish teeth The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered on expectations, with a 0.50% rate hike which brings the cash rate to 2.0%, its highest level since 2016.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil and gold head higher
White House unnerves oil markets Oil prices continued to range trade overnight, finishing almost unchanged in New York. Asia, though, has seen both Brent crude and WTI rise.
by Jeffrey Halley
US dollar’s orderly retreat continues
Recession jitters send US dollar lower The US dollar eased once again overnight, as US recession fears continue to lead to a repricing lower of Fed tightening expectations. With quantitative tightening starting next week and no signs of inflation falling, that may be more hope than reality.
by Jeffrey Halley
A mixed day for Asian equities
Nasdaq slides, Asia in mixed mood Overnight, a procession of poor US data delivered another kidney punch to US equities, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq bearing the brunt once again, as the more value-heavy Dow Jones remained steady. The S&P 500 fell by 0.80% as the Nasdaq slumped by 2.35%, while the Dow Jones managed a tiny 0.16% gain.
by Jeffrey Halley
Least worst choices
RBNZ hikes by 50-bps The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised policy rates by 0.50% to 2.0% this morning, with Governor Orr setting a hawkish tone in the press conference afterwards. In the statement itself, the RBNZ’s “least worst choices” policy seemed to imply that although external risks remained, the domestic economy was strong and could tolerate tighter monetary conditions.
by Jeffrey Halley
Oil rangebound, gold shines
Oil looking for direction Oil prices remain directionless as energy traders try to assess how significant the deceleration in economic activity will be for the short-term crude demand outlook. The oil market remains tight but the COVID situation in China points to a gradual pickup in demand and that might keep this market rangebound a while longer. Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan noted that the kingdom has done what it can for global oil markets and that should mean production increases will rema
by Edward Moya
Oh Snap, wrath of US data misses, stock selling resumes, bitcoin in danger
US stocks are quickly giving up yesterday’s gains after a wrath of US economic data signaled broad weakness across large parts of the economy. ​ Everything is weakening at a faster clip than anyone expected and that does not bode well for the US consumer and for short-term outlooks for equities. ​ The dollar is sliding as Treasury yields plunge as risk aversion returns following a gloomy outlook from snap and disappointing US PMI and housing data. Snap slides Snap shares plunged after the social
by Edward Moya
USD/JPY - Head and shoulders breakout?
Major correction on the cards? The rally in USDJPY from early March to early May was huge, driven by a combination of a soaring greenback and a BoJ determined to support its yield curve control policy tool. But the last couple of weeks have brought some relief in the pair, driven primarily by the dollar paring gains against the broader market. And the pair may have just broken below an interesting technical support level that could signal a more significant correction. A head and shoulders a
by Craig Erlam
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