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Is a recession now inevitable?
Equity markets are experiencing another day of pain on Thursday as central banks continue to signal a willingness to sacrifice the economy in order to get inflation under control. Drama from the central banks Central banks are full of surprises this week whether it's the Fed accepting a recession as the cost of price stability, the SNB raising rates by 50 basis points out of nowhere, the ECB holding an emergency meeting or the BoE seemingly crossing its fingers and hoping 11% inflation goes away
by Craig Erlam
Oil steady, gold under pressure
IEA offers a bleak outlook for crude Oil prices are relatively flat on Thursday, after once again edging lower earlier in the session. Crude has been paring gains in recent days after a huge run higher over the previous month but prices are still extremely high.
by Craig Erlam
Swiss franc soars after SNB surprise hike
The Swiss franc has posted massive gains today after the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 0.50%. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9720, down 2.29% on the day. It has been a week of central bank drama, which started with the Federal Reserve delivering a massive 0.75% rate hike.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil edges lower, gold range-trades
Oil fall on higher inventories Oil prices had another big intraday range overnight, but ultimately, booked only a small retreat, continuing a theme of energy mostly ignoring the noise in equity and bond markets this week. Oil prices finished lower after US official crude inventories recorded another 2 million-barrel gain, and as the FOMC later that evening downgraded its US growth outlook. Still, by oil’s standards, the falls were modest.
by Jeffrey Halley
US dollar remains firm post-FOMC
US retreats after FOMC mega-hike The US dollar gave back some recent gains overnight post-FOMC as Powell’s comments post-meeting were interpreted as implying a less aggressive scale of rate hikes. To me, that is a flawed interpretation, as the FOMC signalled a higher terminal rate and lifted its end-of-2022 target rate as well.
by Jeffrey Halley
Asian markets mixed after FOMC
Asian equities struggle to follow Wall Street higher Wall Street rallied post-FOMC as Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments were interpreted as a consistent, but less aggressive pace of rate hikes through the rest of the year. That was all the excuse that the ever-present pent-up buy-the-dip demand needed.
by Jeffrey Halley
Markets like their rate hikes rare
Wall Street up, US dollar down after Fed's 0.75% hike Unless you were living on Mars, and even there they probably heard the news, the FOMC hiked the Fed Funds rate by 0.75% overnight to a target range of 1.50%-1.75%, as anticipated by the market. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 but remained adamant there would be no recession.
by Jeffrey Halley
US Close - Happy Fed/ECB Day, Traders breathe a sigh of relief, Oil drops on demand outlook, Gold shines, Bitcoin in trouble
Risky assets got their groove back after the Fed restored confidence that they are serious about fighting inflation but that a steady stream of supersized hikes would be unlikely. Wall Street made this an easy policy decision for the Fed as the two-year Treasury yield surged from 2.83% to over 3.40% since Friday’s inflation report.  The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points, the largest increase since 1994, and signaled more hikes are coming, but that trend won't last beyond 2023.  Th
by Edward Moya
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 341)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the emergency ECB meeting and preview the upcoming Fed, BoJ and BoE monetary policy decisions.
by Craig Erlam
New Zealand dollar fights back
NZD/USD is in positive territory on Wednesday, after an extended slide. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6244, up 0.46% on the day. The New Zealand dollar received a boost today from an unexpected source, the European Central Bank.
by Kenneth Fisher
ECB calms markets ahead of the Fed
We're seeing a modest recovery in equity markets ahead of some key central bank meetings but investors remain wary of what's to come. It's become very clear that central banks are going to have to be very aggressive in countering mounting price pressures around the globe and that the probability of recessions has increased. Stagflation is not yet here but the risks around it have risen considerably in recent months which makes central bank responses all the more critical.
by Craig Erlam
Aussie surges ahead FOMC, jobs report
The Australian dollar has reversed directions on Wednesday and climbed sharply. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6937, up 0.98% on the day. If your fancy is a currency with wild swings, then stay put and don't change the channel.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil drifting, gold dips lower
Oil is noisy but sideways Oil prices traded in a very wide range overnight, but like currency markets, once the histrionics passed and the dust settled, didn’t do a lot, remaining near to recent highs. Brent crude ranged between USD 119.00 and USD 125.00 before finishing just 1.05% lower at USD 120.85 a barrel.
by Jeffrey Halley
US dollar consolidates pre-FOMC
Dollar eyes FOMC rate decision Currency markets had a choppy but ultimately range trading session overnight, as higher US yields once again supported the US dollar modestly, while pre-FOMC caution limited its gains. The Asian session is being marked by similar price action, the US dollar easing today as investors lighten their exposure.
by Jeffrey Halley
Noisy pre-FOMC consolidation
The sell-everything trade has mostly paused for breath over the last 24 hours, with US equities finding their feet overnight, Asian equities rallying today, and the US dollar giving back some of its recent gains. Bond markets remain the exception.
by Jeffrey Halley
Morning rebound faded as PPI remains elevated, Oracle impresses, MicroStrategy all-in on bitcoin, bitcoin holding above USD20k
Wall Street was quick to fade the morning rebound that stemmed a modest improvement with producer prices, possibly providing some hope that core inflation continues to ease for businesses. Wholesale prices are still climbing higher and while they are slightly off the record annual pace, this report does not change anything for the Fed.  Aggressive tightening over the next handful of policy meetings is the only course of action for the Fed. PPI PPI rose 0.8% for the month and 10.8% over the pas
by Edward Moya
Oil market remains tight, gold lower ahead of Fed
Oil gains on tight supplies, China concerns Crude prices rallied as energy traders focus on the supply-demand imbalance that shows no signs of easing and shrugs off China COVID concerns and the early signs of crude demand destruction in the US. Gasoline prices are above five dollars a gallon nationally and no relief is expected anytime soon.  Refiners need to get diesel inventories higher otherwise we could see some shortages in the near future. President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia in the m
by Edward Moya
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