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EUR/JPY Technical: On the verge of a potential bearish breakdown after 6 months of consolidation

The recent Euro strength in the past week has fizzled out. The ongoing trend of the 2-year yield premium shrinkage between the 2-year German Bunds over Japanese Government Bonds reinforced further potential downside in EUR/JPY. Watch the 155.45 downside trigger level of the EUR/JPY. After a multi-month downtrend in the Euro Currency Index from the September 2024 high of 112.14 to the January 2025 low of 101.92, the Euro has started consolidating due to speculative net short positioning. The Eur

19-02-2025 20:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Oil Price Forecast: Supply Concerns and Technical Analysis

Supply concerns are supporting Brent crude oil prices. OPEC+'s decision on whether to maintain or adjust oil supply cuts beyond April is uncertain, with factors like US oil stockpiles and potential policy changes by the Trump administration influencing their deliberations. US crude oil inventories have been increasing, which could pressure oil prices.

19-02-2025 19:57 GMT by Zain Vawda

UK inflation jumps to 3%, pound eyes FOMC minutes

The British pound continues to have an uneventful week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2595, down 0.13% on the day. UK inflation hits 3% in January Consumer inflation in the UK rose to 3% y/y in January, a sharp rise from the 2.5% gain in December and higher than the market estimate of 2.8%. This was the highest level since March 2024 and was driven by price increases in transportation, fuel and food. Monthly, CPI decreased by 0.1%, following a 0.4% gain in December and abov

19-02-2025 08:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand central bank lowers rates by 50 bps, New Zealand dollar gains ground

The New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5721 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day. RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps as expected The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 3.75%. The markets had priced in the cut at 90% so there was no surprise at the jumbo cut. This lowered the cash rate to its lowest level since Nov. 2022. The RBNZ demonstrated again that it can be aggressive, as it h

19-02-2025 05:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

S&P 500 Records All-Time Highs Led by Chipmakers, Dow Jones (DJIA) Seesaw Continues

The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, driven by a late-session rally in chipmakers, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed mixed movements. President Trump has proposed new tariffs, potentially targeting the Pharmaceuticals and Automobiles sectors with a 25% tariff rate. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and S&P PMI data releases are upcoming and expected to provide further insights into the Fed's monetary policy stance.

19-02-2025 03:32 GMT by Zain Vawda

Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Fresh Highs, US-Russia Talks Fail to Quell Haven Demand

Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices despite talks between the US and Russia, and a potential phase two deal between Israel and Hamas. Gold has held above the $2900/oz level to start the week, but the RSI indicates it is in overbought territory. The article identifies key support levels for gold at 2924, 2913, and 2882, and resistance levels at 2937, 2942, and 2950.

18-02-2025 11:41 GMT by Zain Vawda

New Zealand dollar slips ahead of expected RBNZ cut

The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5700 in the North American session, down 0.62% on the day. RBNZ expected to chop rates by 50 basis points The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday for the first time this year. The RBNZ lowered rates by a half-point at the last meeting on Nov. 27 and the markets have priced in another half-point cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.75%.

18-02-2025 09:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canada's CPI expected to remain under 2 percent

The Canadian dollar is calm on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4194, up 0.08%. Canada's CPI expected to creep up to 1.9% Canada releases the January inflation report later today and headline inflation is expected to edge higher to 1.9% from 1.8% in December, which was a three-month low. Headline inflation has remained at or below the 2% target for five consecutive months but that does not mean that inflation worries are over.

18-02-2025 07:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

RBA finally lowers rates, Aussie shrugs

The Australian dollar is drifting on Tuesday after three straight days of gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.63671, up 0.09% on the day. RBA lowers rates to 4.1% The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday to 4.10%. The decision was widely expected and the Australian dollar has shown little reaction. Still, the move is a milestone, as the RBA delivered its first rate cut in over four years.

18-02-2025 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/NZD: Further Aussie outperformance over Kiwi supported by a weaker New Zealand labour market

New Zealand's unemployment rate has accelerated to 5.1% in Q4 2024, a whisker below its Covid peak of 5.2% while Australia’s unemployment rate remained stable at 4%. A further steepening of yield spreads between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds may trigger further upside in the AUD/NZD cross rate. Watch the 1.0980 key medium-term support on AUD/NZD. This week, the Antipodean countries’ central banks will decide their respective monetary policy; Australia’s RBA on Tuesday, 18 February,

17-02-2025 12:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong

British pound eye jobs report

The British pound is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.06% on the day. UK job growth expected to plunge The markets are bracing for a sharp decline in employment in the three months to December, with a forecast of -130 thousand. This follows an increase of 36 thousand in the three months to November. Job growth has posted eight consecutive three-month periods of growth and the resilient labor market has eased pressure on the B

17-02-2025 10:02 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen extends gains on strong GDP

The Japanese yen continues to roll against the US dollar and has posted gains for a third straight trading day, gaining 1.9% during that time. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.43, down 0.53% on the day. Japan's Q4 GDP beats estimate Japan's GDP in the fourth quarter rose 0.7% q/q, blowing past the market estimate of 0.3% and above the upwardly revised 0.4% gain in the third quarter.

17-02-2025 08:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

RBA poised to cut rates, Aussie edges higher

The Australian dollar is higher for a third consecutive trading day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6363, up 0.25% on the day. Earlier, AUD/USD climbed as high as 0.6373, its highest level this year. RBA expected to cut rates to 4.1% The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Feb.

17-02-2025 06:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Swiss franc soars as Trump pushes off tariffs

The Swiss franc has steadied on Friday after sliding 1.1% a day earlier. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9016, down 0.16% on the day. The US dollar beat a hasty retreat against the major currencies on Thursday, after the White House announced that the US would not impose reciprocal tariffs before April 1.

14-02-2025 07:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZ dollar extends gains after strong mfg. data

The New Zealand dollar continues to rally on Friday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5702 in the European session, up 0.43% on the day. Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expands New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in January, up sharply from the December reading of 45.9 and above the market estimate of 46.0. This was a milestone reading as it marked the first expansion in almost two years and was the highest level since September 2022. All key sub-categories posted growth, including new

14-02-2025 06:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen roller-coaster ride continues

The Japanese yen continues to take investors and traders on a roller-coaster ride. After climbing 1.2% on Wednesday, USD/JPY gave almost all of those gains on Thursday, declining 1.05%.

14-02-2025 05:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie inflation expectations jump, AUD higher

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6292, up 0.22% on the day. Australian consumer inflation expectations jump Consumer inflation expectations in Australia climbed sharply to 4.6% in February, compared to 4% a month earlier. This blew past the forecast of 3.8% and marked the highest reading since April 2024.

13-02-2025 11:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

UK GDP beats forecast, gives sterling a lift

The British pound has edged higher on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2460, up 0.15% on the day. UK GDP beats forecast The UK economy ended 2024 on a high note, as GDP rose 0.4% m/m in December. This was the fastest pace of growth in nine months and blew past the market estimate of 01.%.

13-02-2025 07:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar calm after inflation expectations ease

The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5639 in the European session, down 0.04% on the day. NZ inflation expectations dip to 2.06% in Q1 2025 New Zealand business inflation expectations didn't show much change in the first quarter. Two-year inflation expectations, which are closely monitored by the central bank, edged lower to 2.06%, compared to 2.12% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and higher than the forecast of 1.8%. The business sector expects inflat

13-02-2025 05:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Germany DAX Technical: Bullish acceleration towards fresh all-time highs

The current bullish trend in the German stock market is supported by positive momentum, market breadth & intermarket dynamics. The DAX and Hang Seng Index (HSI) have a high direct correlation where a further bullish move in HSI may trigger a positive feedback loop into the DAX. Watch the 21,100 key medium-term pivotal support on the DAX. The latest key economic data for January such as manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence in the Eurozone and Germany, one of the anchor European economies a

13-02-2025 05:10 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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