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Hang Seng Index: Positive momentum overrides lackluster fundamentals

The emergence of China's AI start-up, DeepSeek has triggered a positive feedback loop into the Hang Seng Index. Mixed consumer spending and weak factory activity in China suggest deflationary pressures are likely to persist. Momentum and trend have turned positive for the Hang Seng Index in the medium term. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Hang Seng Index: Transforming into a medium-term bearish trend despite improving Services PMI from China” dated 8 January 2025.

10-02-2025 23:09 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook: $3000/oz Target Possible as Safe Haven Demand Rises

Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above $2900/oz, fueled by safe-haven demand amid new tariff announcements. The World Gold Council report indicates that geopolitical risks significantly contribute to gold's rise. Additionally, European ETF inflows have been substantial. A sharp rise in US inflation could either push prices down or further increase safe-haven demand, creating a complex market situation.

10-02-2025 15:39 GMT by Zain Vawda

Australia dollar eyes confidence data

The Australian dollar has started the week with gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6275, up 0.60% on the day. Australia releases business and consumer confidence on Tuesday, with the markets expecting some improvement. Westpac Consumer Sentiment is expected to rebound and gain 0.4% in February after a 0.7% decline in January. The National Australian Bank business confidence index is projected to improve to zero in January, after a -2 reading in December. China's i

10-02-2025 12:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Can. dollar shrugs after strong Can. jobs report

The Canadian dollar is drifting on Monday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4334, down 0.11% on the day. Canada's employment blows past market estimate Canada posted stronger-than-expected growth on Friday, but the Canadian dollar showed little reaction. The economy created 76 thousand jobs in January, crushing the market estimate of 25 thousand and following a December gain of 90 thousand. This marked the sixth straight monthly increase as the labor market remains strong desp

10-02-2025 06:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Markets Weekly Outlook - Inflation Fears Rise with Tariffs Ahead of US CPI Release

Inflation expectations are rising, driven by tariff concerns and impacting consumer sentiment. US job growth was lower than expected, adding to market concerns. Key events for the week ahead include the US CPI release and testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

07-02-2025 13:41 GMT by Zain Vawda

Can. dollar lower ahead of US, Canada jobs data

The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement for third consecutive day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4328, up 0.14% on the day. The week wraps up with January employment reports from both Canada and the US, which could mean USD/CAD will be active in the North American session. Canada and the US are coming off sparkling job growth numbers in December and it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the January data, which is expected to be much lower. Employme

07-02-2025 06:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen eyes US payrolls, Japan household spending jumps

The Japanese yen is in negative territory on Friday. This follows a two-day rally which saw the yen jump 1.9% and hit a three-month high. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.94, up 0.39% on the day. On the data front, Japan's household spending was much stronger than expected and the US releases nonfarm payrolls. Japan's household spending hits 2.5-year high Japan's household spending has been struggling as inflation remains relatively high. This made the December report a p

07-02-2025 05:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Dollar Index (DXY) and the NFP Jobs Report: What to Expect

Consensus forecasts predict an increase of 169,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Strong numbers (over 190,000 jobs) could strengthen the dollar, while weak numbers (less than 135,000 jobs) could weaken it. (DXY) currently has support levels around 107.00, 106.13, and 105.76, and resistance levels at 108.00, 108.49, and 109.52.

06-02-2025 16:37 GMT by Zain Vawda

Bank of England cuts rates, British pound slips

The British pound is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2434, down 0.56% on the day.

06-02-2025 12:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar dips, services PMI beats estimate

The Australian dollar has snapped a three-day rally on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6266, down 0.27% on the day. After sliding to a 5-year low on Monday, the Aussie has recovered and gain 0.9% this week. Australia's PMI stronger than expected It's been a good week for Australian PMIs. On Monday, Manufacturing PMI climbed back into positive territory in January and rose to a revised 50.2

06-02-2025 07:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD Technical: BoE’s hawkish cut is being priced in, but GBP bulls are now approaching a key resistance

GBP/USD has rallied by 2.1% from Monday, 3 February swing low. The 2-year yield premium shrinkage between UK sovereign fixed income over the US Treasury Note may trigger a bearish reversal on the GBP/USD. Watch the key medium-term resistance of 1.2610 on the GBP/USD. Since its swing low of 1.2249 printed on Monday, 3 February, the GBP/USD has rallied for three consecutive sessions with a gain of 2.1% and hit an intraday high of 1.2550 on Wednesday, 5 February.

06-02-2025 04:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD Analysis: Bank of England Decision Looms - What to Expect?

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to announce a 25 bps rate cut on February 6, 2025. Weak UK Data and ongoing trade war and geopolitical risks pose threat to BoE policy. Key levels to watch are 1.2500 (resistance) and 1.2466 (support). Governor Bailey comments and press conference are key to future policy hints. The Bank of England (BoE) is to announce its latest monetary policy decision on February 6, 2025, in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched meetings recently

06-02-2025 03:46 GMT by Zain Vawda

Market Insights Podcast - US services growth slows, oil slide continues

Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets.

05-02-2025 13:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Trading Outlook: Testing Support at 100 & 200-day MA

USD/JPY is testing a crucial support level. BOJ rate hike expectations are growing on the back of strong data. Key support levels are at 151.53 and 150.00, while resistance levels are at 153.91, 155.00, and 156.27. Most Read: Brent Crude Oil Analysis: Iran Tensions, OPEC+ and Price Trends USD/JPY has found some support following a 150 pip drop during the Asian and early European sessions. The pair has found some support at a key confluence level where both the 100 and 200-day MA rests. Will we

05-02-2025 10:27 GMT by Zain Vawda

Gold: Stagflation fears are supporting fresh new all-time highs

5-year and 10-year US breakeven inflation rates have just staged a major bullish breakout from a two-year plus of basing formation. Trade War 2.0 involves the US and other major trading partners that may disrupt international trade and dampen global economic growth. The resurgence of stagflation risk has triggered bullish movements on Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the US$2,716 key medium-term support on Gold (XAU/USD).

05-02-2025 04:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Crude Oil Analysis: Iran Tensions, OPEC+ and Price Trends

Brent Crude oil prices recovered supported by potential "maximum pressure" on Iran by the US. OPEC+ maintained its current production policy, with a planned gradual increase in supply depending on market conditions. Technical analysis indicates Brent Crude Oil faced support at the 100-day moving average. Key support levels for Brent Crude Oil are identified at $76.35, $75.00, and $72.38, while resistance levels are at $77.68, $78.43, and $80.00.

04-02-2025 13:31 GMT by Zain Vawda

New Zealand dollar eyes NZ employment

The New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5608 in the European session, down 0.35% on the day. On Monday, NZD/USD fell as much as 1.2% but managed to recover most of these losses. New Zealand employment expected to decline New Zealand releases its employment report on a quarterly basis and we'll get a look at data for the fourth quarter 2024 later today. The market estimate stands at -0.2% q/q, following a reading of -0.5% in the third quarter. Unemployment has been climbing and is expecte

04-02-2025 06:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Bloodshed in commodities currencies (AUD and CAD) as Trade War 2.0 starts, more weakness ahead or bullish reversal on sight?

Trade War 2.0 may trigger a stagflation narrative as it involves not only US-China trade but with other major trading partners. Commodities currencies may face further headwinds due to deteriorating global economic growth prospects. Watch the 0.6330 key medium-term resistance on the AUD/USD and the 1.4300 key medium-term support on the USD/CAD. On 1 February, US President Trump officially “fired” his flagship trade tariffs policy by imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10

04-02-2025 05:56 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD slides on tariff turmoil, euro CPI rises

The euro has weakened at the start of the new week. EUR/USD slumped over the weekend and dropped as low as 1.0141, its lowest level since Nov.

03-02-2025 13:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie falls to five-year low on Trump, China data

The Australian dollar is coming off a nasty week, declining 1.6%, and the slide has continued on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6146, down 1% on the day.

03-02-2025 06:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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