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Monetary Policy Divergence and FX Exchange Rate Impacts: EURCAD & AUDCAD Analysis

Talking Points ECB and BOC Monetary Policy Divergence - EURCAD Exchange Rate Fluctuations RBA and BOC Monetary Policy Divergence - AUDCAD Exchange Rate Fluctuations Canada and Australia Inflation Data and Interest Rate Expectations AUDCAD Technical Analysis: Trend Break and Support Following the inflation peak of 2022 and as central banks globally began raising interest rates, the global disinflation process has progressed at different paces for each economy.

25-02-2025 08:16 GMT by Moheb Hanna

USD/CAD Eyes Breakout as Tariff Deadline Approaches

● The US Dollar's recovery on tariff talk is causing the USD/CAD pair to bounce. ● The main events to watch out for this week are the US PCE data and Canadian GDP for Q4. ● A close above 1.43100 on the daily candle chart would signal a structural shift that could empower bulls. USD/CAD has enjoyed a bounce to start the week as the US Dollar eyes a recovery. The pair has been caught in a tight range since February 14, but does appear to be consolidating ahead of a potential breakout.

25-02-2025 08:07 GMT by Zain Vawda

Japanese yen steady as producer price inflation unchanged

The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.68, down 0.01% on the day. The yen has shown recent strength against the US dollar and gained 2% last week. On Monday, the yen strengthened to 148.84 per dollar, its strongest level this year.

25-02-2025 05:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold (XAU/USD) Retreats From Fresh All-Time Highs, Bulls Remain in Control

Gold is nearing the $3000/oz mark, potentially reaching it briefly before a pullback. Concerns about the stock market and a murky Fed outlook are driving investors towards gold. Key economic data releases this week include US GDP and PCE data. Most Read: Global Market Outlook 2025: Trends, Risks, and Opportunities for Traders Risk aversion persisted in the markets today, as the end of February draws to a close.

24-02-2025 12:10 GMT by Zain Vawda

Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Bulls got spooked by stagflation fears

The recent steep rise in the US 5-year breakeven inflation rate to 2.61%, a two-year high coupled with the unexpected contraction seen in the S&P Global flash US Services PMI for February has increased the odds of a stagflation environment. An increasingly less dovish monetary policy stance is likely to be adopted by the US Federal Reserve, in turn, tighten liquidity conditions that may trigger a medium-term negative feedback loop into the US stock market. Bearish technical elements in terms of

24-02-2025 10:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Germany moves to the right, euro pares gains

The euro rose as much as 0.55% on Monday but has pared most of these gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0467, up 0.11%. Merz's conservatives win German election Germany has voted and Friedrich Merz is slated to become the next president.

24-02-2025 10:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar steady as retail sales sparkle

The New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Monday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5745 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day. NZ retail sales hit 3-year high The week started on a high note in New Zealand, as retail sales jumped 0.9% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, after a revised flat reading in the third quarter and above the market estimate of 0.6%.

24-02-2025 06:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EURJPY Market Analysis: ECB, BOJ, and Technical Outlook

ECB Rate Decision: Inflation, Tariffs, and Market Sentiment Impact on EURJPY The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its interest rates and monetary policy statement on March 6th, 2025, followed by its standard press conference. The meeting occurs during a period of heightened market uncertainty due to trade wars and tariff implications.

22-02-2025 15:49 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Markets Weekly Outlook - US PCE, Japanese Inflation & Tariffs in Focus

US equity markets experienced a slight downturn due to concerns about inflation impacting consumer spending, highlighted by Walmart's cautious outlook. The upcoming US PCE data is crucial as the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Japanese inflation data will also be key this week as markets eye the Bank of Japans next move.

21-02-2025 14:13 GMT by Zain Vawda

Canadian dollar eyes retail sales

The Canadian dollar is showing small losses on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.4196 in the European session, up 0.14%.

21-02-2025 06:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

UK retail sales jump, British pound steady

The British pound has steadied on Friday against the US Dollar after climbing 0.6% a day earlier. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2655 in the European session, down 0.1% on the day. UK retail sales jump 1.7% UK retail sales sparkled in January, climbing 1.7% m/m. The reading crushed the market estimate of 0.3% and bounced back from an upwardly revised -0.6% in December. This was the fastest pace since May 2024 and was largely driven by a sharp increase in food store sales.

21-02-2025 04:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Aussie hits 2025 high on strong jobs data

The Australian dollar has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6377, up 0.55% on the day. Australia's job growth beats forecast Australia's labor market continues to shine. The economy created 44 thousand jobs in January, blowing past the market estimate of 20 thousand. This followed an upwardly revised gain of 60 thousand in December. Impressively, full-time employment jumped 54.1 thousand and part-time employment decreased by 10.1 thousand. The

20-02-2025 06:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast - Gold hits record high, UK inflation higher than expected, Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashes rates

Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets.

20-02-2025 04:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY Technical: On the verge of a potential bearish breakdown after 6 months of consolidation

The recent Euro strength in the past week has fizzled out. The ongoing trend of the 2-year yield premium shrinkage between the 2-year German Bunds over Japanese Government Bonds reinforced further potential downside in EUR/JPY. Watch the 155.45 downside trigger level of the EUR/JPY. After a multi-month downtrend in the Euro Currency Index from the September 2024 high of 112.14 to the January 2025 low of 101.92, the Euro has started consolidating due to speculative net short positioning. The Eur

19-02-2025 20:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Oil Price Forecast: Supply Concerns and Technical Analysis

Supply concerns are supporting Brent crude oil prices. OPEC+'s decision on whether to maintain or adjust oil supply cuts beyond April is uncertain, with factors like US oil stockpiles and potential policy changes by the Trump administration influencing their deliberations. US crude oil inventories have been increasing, which could pressure oil prices.

19-02-2025 19:57 GMT by Zain Vawda

UK inflation jumps to 3%, pound eyes FOMC minutes

The British pound continues to have an uneventful week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2595, down 0.13% on the day. UK inflation hits 3% in January Consumer inflation in the UK rose to 3% y/y in January, a sharp rise from the 2.5% gain in December and higher than the market estimate of 2.8%. This was the highest level since March 2024 and was driven by price increases in transportation, fuel and food. Monthly, CPI decreased by 0.1%, following a 0.4% gain in December and abov

19-02-2025 08:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand central bank lowers rates by 50 bps, New Zealand dollar gains ground

The New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5721 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day. RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps as expected The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 3.75%. The markets had priced in the cut at 90% so there was no surprise at the jumbo cut. This lowered the cash rate to its lowest level since Nov. 2022. The RBNZ demonstrated again that it can be aggressive, as it h

19-02-2025 05:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

S&P 500 Records All-Time Highs Led by Chipmakers, Dow Jones (DJIA) Seesaw Continues

The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, driven by a late-session rally in chipmakers, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed mixed movements. President Trump has proposed new tariffs, potentially targeting the Pharmaceuticals and Automobiles sectors with a 25% tariff rate. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and S&P PMI data releases are upcoming and expected to provide further insights into the Fed's monetary policy stance.

19-02-2025 03:32 GMT by Zain Vawda

Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Fresh Highs, US-Russia Talks Fail to Quell Haven Demand

Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices despite talks between the US and Russia, and a potential phase two deal between Israel and Hamas. Gold has held above the $2900/oz level to start the week, but the RSI indicates it is in overbought territory. The article identifies key support levels for gold at 2924, 2913, and 2882, and resistance levels at 2937, 2942, and 2950.

18-02-2025 11:41 GMT by Zain Vawda

New Zealand dollar slips ahead of expected RBNZ cut

The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5700 in the North American session, down 0.62% on the day. RBNZ expected to chop rates by 50 basis points The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday for the first time this year. The RBNZ lowered rates by a half-point at the last meeting on Nov. 27 and the markets have priced in another half-point cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.75%.

18-02-2025 09:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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