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Some positives for the BoE from UK jobs data, Chinese figures less good

Stock markets are treading water on Tuesday, with jobs number from the UK not inspiring and Chinese data also highlighting weakness in the recovery. Some positives for the BoE to cling to UK jobs data was a mixed bag this morning as wages accelerated again to 6.7%, excluding bonuses, while unemployment also ticked higher as inactivity fell. The Bank of England will no doubt be concerned about the pace of wage growth, with it not being consistent with inflation returning to 2%.

16-05-2023 07:04 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices steady, debt ceiling stalemate could boost gold

Oil settles in lower range and further declines may prove challenging Oil prices are marginally higher on Tuesday but remain below the December to March range. The risks remain tilted to the downside amid a sluggish recovery in China, uncertainty around the US economy and banking system, and the impact of much higher interest rates on demand. The primary bullish case for oil prices comes from OPEC+ and the prospect of another output cut in a couple of weeks but even that has been downplayed.

16-05-2023 06:55 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie shrugs off RBA minutes, weak consumer confidence

RBA minutes state further rate hikes possible Australian consumer confidence sinks Australian wage growth to be released on Wednesday The Australian dollar has taken investors on a wild ride over the past few days but has settled down on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6687 in Europe, down 0.13% on the day. RBA minutes indicate more rate hikes possible The RBA released the minutes of its meeting earlier this month.

16-05-2023 06:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Technical: Potential push up within a major range

Two conflicting fundamental factors are driving the short-term movement of the Aussie dollar. RBA’s hawkish rhetoric has provided a potential floor but a weak external environment due to China prevents bulls from taking an aggressive stance. AUD/JPY key short-term support stands at 90.30 with major range resistance coming in at 92.10/92.80. The Aussie dollar seems to be trapped by two conflicting fundamental factors in the short to medium-term horizon. Firstly, the positive factor that suppor

16-05-2023 01:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil pushes higher, gold steady

Oil pushing higher but economic fears continue to weigh Oil prices are rebounding today but how long will that last? The oil price was hammered once more by US banking fears earlier this month and I'm not sure those have yet receded to the extent that oil can make a full recovery without another OPEC+ intervention. If credit conditions ease over the coming months, allaying economic fears for the world's largest economy, oil prices could bounce back without assistance but it seems a little premat

15-05-2023 14:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

Erdogan looks likely to cling to power but will need a run-off to secure victory

It's been a relatively quiet start to the week for markets but the election in Turkey and economic forecasts from Europe have given us plenty to think about. The Turkish election has been front and centre at the start of the week and the race for President is set to continue with a runoff in two weeks. President Erdogan performed better than the polls were expecting but fell short of the 50% needed to secure victory. The big winner was arguably Sinan Ogan who received 5.2% of the vote and could

15-05-2023 14:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD ends slide, employment report next

Empire State Manufacturing Index plummets Markets await UK employment, US retail sales on Tuesday British pound rebounds after sharp slide GDP/USD has started the week in positive territory, after a two-day slide that saw the pound lose 1.5%. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2514, up 0.54%. On the economic calendar, it's a fairly quiet start to the week.

15-05-2023 11:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rebounds on weaker dollar, Gold wavers, Bitcoin off two-month lows

Oil falls $10 since beginning of the year Gold steadies after three-day drop Crypto ETFs see $163 million in net outflows in the past month Oil Crude prices pared gains after a disappointing Empire State manufacturing report showed the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking campaign is starting to really knock down the economy. Turkey’s Ceyhan port has yet to resume flows with Baghdad, and government approval might take longer given the lack of clarity with the presidential election. The dollar rally h

15-05-2023 11:21 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks boosted on premature debt ceiling deal hope

Empire Survey: 49% report that conditions worsened Fed's Kashkari "We at the Federal Reserve probably have more work to do on our end to try to bring inflation back down" President Erdogan will face Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a run-off ballot on May 28 US stocks are stuck in wait-and-see mode until we get the next debt ceiling talk update. Over the weekend, President Biden provided optimism that a deal could be reached, but no meaningful concessions have been made from either side. Until we have Re

15-05-2023 09:43 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar stems bleeding, RBA minutes eyed

Australia to release RBA minutes and consumer sentiment US debt crisis pushes US yields and the US dollar higher AUD/USD has rebounded on Monday, after a steep slide of 2% over the previous two sessions. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6689, up 0.71% on the day. Markets await RBA minutes RBA minutes are often on the dull side, but Tuesday's release could be an exception.

15-05-2023 08:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar rebounds after sharp losses

New Zealand dollar rebounds after sharp losses on Friday New Zealand Services Index contracts US consumer confidence slips, inflation expectations rise The New Zealand dollar has started the week with strong gains. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6218, up 0.46% on the day.

15-05-2023 05:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Week Ahead - Turkey heads to the polls, US retail sales eyed, China ponders rate cut

US Wall Street will remain focused on debt ceiling drama, a plethora of Fed speak, retail earnings, and bank stress. It will be a busy week filled with economic releases, with most of the attention falling the Empire manufacturing survey, a retail sales report that is expected to show a rebound in spending, weekly jobless claims, and existing home sales. Debt ceiling talks were delayed and are expected to resume this week.

12-05-2023 14:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

Podcast - Dollar poised for best week since February as stagflation risks return

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They recap this week's key drivers for dollar strength, a strong surge with inflation expectations, the BOE's rate hike, oil's bad week, gold's macro backdrop, and cryptos.

12-05-2023 14:08 GMT by Edward Moya

Strong dollar takes down oil, gold, and crypto

US SPR hovers around 362 million barrels, down from 593 million seen at beginning of 2022 Gold ETFS net purchases post largest one-day increase since mid-April Bitcoin falls to a 2-month low Oil Crude prices are getting punished as the dollar rally extends. Several oil headlines have provided mixed signals for energy traders; Iraq and Canadian supplies have seen some disruptions, while Iraq signals that there will be no additional reduction from OPEC+. Iraq oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani als

12-05-2023 13:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Mountain of risks has dollar poised for best week since February

Dollar index rises to best levels since April 10th (euro falls to one-month low) Rising inflation expectations keeps future Fed rate hike risks in play Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% as recession worries persist US stocks are softer as banking jitters persist and after a steady dose of reminders of all the risks that remain on the table; Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that a default would be “an economic and financial catastrophe.”, while Fed’s Bowman warned that they will likely need to r

12-05-2023 13:28 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil slightly higher, gold continues to drift lower

Oil settled into lower range but focus remains on banks and OPEC+ Oil prices were drifting lower earlier in the day but have recovered to trade modestly higher as we near the end of the trading week. It would appear traders are waiting for one of two events to dictate the path of travel going forward; another bank failure or an OPEC+ production cut.

12-05-2023 08:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

Uninspiring UK first-quarter growth and we shouldn't expect it to get better

A day after the Bank of England upgraded growth and inflation forecasts for the UK, economic data confirmed the country posted growth (just) in the first quarter but it wasn't all good news. The UK economy squeezed out a tiny amount of growth in the first quarter but it didn't end it in a promising way, with the monthly number unexpectedly posting a 0.3% contraction.

12-05-2023 08:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

The Aussie takes a tumble, UoM Consumer Sentiment next

Australia's inflation expectations higher than expected US inflation unlikely to sway Fed UoM consumer sentiment expected to ease AUD/USD is down 0.19% today, trading at 0.6688. Australia's consumer inflation expectations rise Australia's consumer inflation expectations climbed to 5.0% in May, matching the estimate and above the April reading of 4.6%. This is not what the Reserve Bank of Australia wants to hear - if inflation expectations keep rising and become entrenched, it can manifest int

12-05-2023 07:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD flat as UK GDP a mixed bag

UK GDP remains steady at 1% in Q4 BoE raises rates by 25 bp BoE revises upwards its growth, inflation forecasts UoM consumer sentiment expected to slow GBP/USD is trading at 1.2517 in Europe, almost unchanged. In the UK, GDP declined by 0.3% in March m/m, below the 0.1% estimate and the February reading of 0.0%. Still, the economy managed to gain 0.1% in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4 2022 and matching the estimate. BoE raises rates by 25 bp, revises inflation, GDP forecasts There was

12-05-2023 05:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZ dollar slide continues as inflation expectations ease

New Zealand Inflation Expectations falls to 2.79% US unemployment claims rise UoM consumer sentiment to be released later today The New Zealand dollar is getting pummelled by the US dollar and is trading at 0.6240, down 0.93% on the day. This follows a drop of 1.07% on Thursday. New Zealand inflation expectations decline The week is ending on a high note for policy makers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

12-05-2023 05:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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