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Nikkei 225 Technical: At the risk of a multi-week pull-back

Nikkei 225 recorded a month-to-day return of +5.80% for May and hit a 33-year high. Nikkei 225 outperformed the MSCI All Country World Index on a year-to-date basis (17% vs. 9%). Overbought conditions below 30,835 key resistance. The Japanese stock market has continued to rally and outperformed the rest of the world.

18-05-2023 01:52 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Debt ceiling, gold correction, BoE inflation concerns

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the market stories of the day including the US debt ceiling, gold, and BoE Governor Bailey's comments about a potential wage-price spiral.

17-05-2023 12:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound drifts lower, markets eye Bailey testimony

BoE Governor Bailey to testify before Treasury Committee on Thursday Fed says remains open to rate hikes JP Morgan expects Fed to cut rates Will monetary hearings shake up British pound? The Bank of England will be in the spotlight on Thursday, as Governor Bailey testifies before the Treasury Committee. Lawmakers will likely pepper the Governor with questions about red-hot inflation, which remains in double-digits despite the BoE's aggressive tightening.

17-05-2023 11:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY - Japan's GDP improves but yen slips

USD/JPY climbs above 137 Japan's GDP surprises to the upside JP Morgan expects Fed to trim rates The Japanese yen is on a four-day losing streak and is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, the yen is trading at 137.39, up 0.74% on the day. Japan's GDP beats estimate Japan's GDP in the first quarter was higher than expected.

17-05-2023 10:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar calm after wage growth accelerates

Australia wage growth accelerates in Q1 JP Morgan expects Fed to trim rates The Australian dollar is steady on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6650 in Europe, down 0.06% on the day. Australian wage growth rises Australia's wage price index jumped in the first quarter.

17-05-2023 06:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

MSCI Singapore: Under downside pressure from weak external demand

Singapore’s weak manufacturing PMI & non-oil domestic exports for April are pointing to a risk of contraction for Q2 GDP growth. China’s recent lacklustre key leading macro data and inaction by PBoC may reinforce further contraction of Singapore’s economic growth in H2 2023. Singapore’s Straits Times Index’s underperformance against the rest of the world may persist. More signs are pointing to a potential contraction in Singapore’s economic growth (GDP) in Q2 2023. where several key leading eco

17-05-2023 02:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Stocks lower on Home Depot's warning and looming debt ceiling drama

10-Year Treasury yield rose 5.1bps to 3.553% Canadian inflation delivers first annual pace acceleration in 10 months Fed's Mester notes they have yet to reach significantly restrictively rates US stocks are declining after Home Depot delivered a downbeat outlook for the retail consumer and Speaker McCarthy said debt ceiling negotiations have had no progress. Wall Street is bracing for something bad to happen, but no one has an idea on what will be that catalyst. It could be a debt ceiling imp

16-05-2023 13:08 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY continues rally ahead of Japanese GDP

USD/JPY continues to rally Japan releases GDP on Wednesday Fed members warn that more rate hikes on the table USD/JPY continues to rally and is up for a fourth straight day and has gained an impressive 230 points during that time. USD/JPY is up 0.37% on the day, trading at 136.62. Japan releases GDP for second-quarter growth early on Wednesday.

16-05-2023 12:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD calm after mixed UK jobs report, US retail sales

UK wage growth, unemployment claims accelerate Fed members warn higher rates still on the table After three straight days of sharp movement, the pound has settled down on Tuesday and is slightly lower, trading at 1.2496. UK wages accelerate, unemployment rises Is the UK labour market showing signs of strain? Today's employment numbers are pointing in that direction.

16-05-2023 11:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Decent UK jobs data, China's unbalanced recovery, Turkish election

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart to discuss the latest data from the UK and China and react to the Turkish election.

16-05-2023 09:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Some positives for the BoE from UK jobs data, Chinese figures less good

Stock markets are treading water on Tuesday, with jobs number from the UK not inspiring and Chinese data also highlighting weakness in the recovery. Some positives for the BoE to cling to UK jobs data was a mixed bag this morning as wages accelerated again to 6.7%, excluding bonuses, while unemployment also ticked higher as inactivity fell. The Bank of England will no doubt be concerned about the pace of wage growth, with it not being consistent with inflation returning to 2%.

16-05-2023 07:04 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices steady, debt ceiling stalemate could boost gold

Oil settles in lower range and further declines may prove challenging Oil prices are marginally higher on Tuesday but remain below the December to March range. The risks remain tilted to the downside amid a sluggish recovery in China, uncertainty around the US economy and banking system, and the impact of much higher interest rates on demand. The primary bullish case for oil prices comes from OPEC+ and the prospect of another output cut in a couple of weeks but even that has been downplayed.

16-05-2023 06:55 GMT by Craig Erlam

Aussie shrugs off RBA minutes, weak consumer confidence

RBA minutes state further rate hikes possible Australian consumer confidence sinks Australian wage growth to be released on Wednesday The Australian dollar has taken investors on a wild ride over the past few days but has settled down on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6687 in Europe, down 0.13% on the day. RBA minutes indicate more rate hikes possible The RBA released the minutes of its meeting earlier this month.

16-05-2023 06:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Technical: Potential push up within a major range

Two conflicting fundamental factors are driving the short-term movement of the Aussie dollar. RBA’s hawkish rhetoric has provided a potential floor but a weak external environment due to China prevents bulls from taking an aggressive stance. AUD/JPY key short-term support stands at 90.30 with major range resistance coming in at 92.10/92.80. The Aussie dollar seems to be trapped by two conflicting fundamental factors in the short to medium-term horizon. Firstly, the positive factor that suppor

16-05-2023 01:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil pushes higher, gold steady

Oil pushing higher but economic fears continue to weigh Oil prices are rebounding today but how long will that last? The oil price was hammered once more by US banking fears earlier this month and I'm not sure those have yet receded to the extent that oil can make a full recovery without another OPEC+ intervention. If credit conditions ease over the coming months, allaying economic fears for the world's largest economy, oil prices could bounce back without assistance but it seems a little premat

15-05-2023 14:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

Erdogan looks likely to cling to power but will need a run-off to secure victory

It's been a relatively quiet start to the week for markets but the election in Turkey and economic forecasts from Europe have given us plenty to think about. The Turkish election has been front and centre at the start of the week and the race for President is set to continue with a runoff in two weeks. President Erdogan performed better than the polls were expecting but fell short of the 50% needed to secure victory. The big winner was arguably Sinan Ogan who received 5.2% of the vote and could

15-05-2023 14:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD ends slide, employment report next

Empire State Manufacturing Index plummets Markets await UK employment, US retail sales on Tuesday British pound rebounds after sharp slide GDP/USD has started the week in positive territory, after a two-day slide that saw the pound lose 1.5%. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2514, up 0.54%. On the economic calendar, it's a fairly quiet start to the week.

15-05-2023 11:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rebounds on weaker dollar, Gold wavers, Bitcoin off two-month lows

Oil falls $10 since beginning of the year Gold steadies after three-day drop Crypto ETFs see $163 million in net outflows in the past month Oil Crude prices pared gains after a disappointing Empire State manufacturing report showed the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking campaign is starting to really knock down the economy. Turkey’s Ceyhan port has yet to resume flows with Baghdad, and government approval might take longer given the lack of clarity with the presidential election. The dollar rally h

15-05-2023 11:21 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks boosted on premature debt ceiling deal hope

Empire Survey: 49% report that conditions worsened Fed's Kashkari "We at the Federal Reserve probably have more work to do on our end to try to bring inflation back down" President Erdogan will face Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a run-off ballot on May 28 US stocks are stuck in wait-and-see mode until we get the next debt ceiling talk update. Over the weekend, President Biden provided optimism that a deal could be reached, but no meaningful concessions have been made from either side. Until we have Re

15-05-2023 09:43 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar stems bleeding, RBA minutes eyed

Australia to release RBA minutes and consumer sentiment US debt crisis pushes US yields and the US dollar higher AUD/USD has rebounded on Monday, after a steep slide of 2% over the previous two sessions. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6689, up 0.71% on the day. Markets await RBA minutes RBA minutes are often on the dull side, but Tuesday's release could be an exception.

15-05-2023 08:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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