- Stock Indexes rebound across the world but anxiety remains
- Having passed a few tests from CPI, PPI and NFP, the uncertain environment is preventing a full-blown bullish momentum.
- Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500
The picture is mixed but red in US stocks today, even after the remarkable turnaround from mid-week turbulence, as prospects of a US intervention in Iran rattled investor sentiment.
This week gave participants a lot to work with, hammered by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the DOJ's investigation into Chair Powell, which delivered a combo-punch to markets that had been rising in a one-way upside end-December 2025.
The geopolitical threat has subsided, but it has definitely not withered away. US President Trump stated in an interview on Wednesday afternoon that the "killing [was] stopping," implying that a US intervention would no longer be necessary. Still, comments from American diplomats suggest a passive-aggressive approach for the time being.
As noted in our Oil market analysis from yesterday, while the odds of an intervention before the end of January are still hovering around 30%, the most immediate intervention threats appear to be behind us.
Odds of a US Intervention in Iran before January 31 – Source: Polymarket
Traders should still keep a close eye on WTI prices. The fact that Oil is holding above $58.50 suggests the market is retaining an intervention premium. At the same time, Iranian revolts continue – You can see that in the rebound in Oil today (up to $60 at its highs today).
Any surprise attack by the US would trigger a strong reaction, likely bearish for equities and bullish for commodities.
With the political headwind largely removed, stocks are trading in confusion, far from bearish, as Indexes remain close to all-time highs but can't seem to discount the uncertainty looming across Markets.
Current picture for the Stock Market (11:15 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 16, 2026
Except for Product Manufacturing, performing well throughout the week despite the risk-aversion, the rest of the Stock Market picture is red.
We will explore as we dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.
Dow Jones 4H Chart
Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView
After the Dow's huge reversal on Wednesday, confusion remains: Moving Averages are flat-lining (indicating sideways action) and the current session's 4H Candle forms a huge doji.
This also comes as bulls couldn't maintain the main 2026 upward trendline.
The price action is forming a large range between 49,000 to 49,700 (ATH) which provides clear boundaries for a breakout or breakdown.
- Breaking above the session highs would surely lead to some new all-time highs. Looking at the current themes, it would mostly happen on some positive news.
- Except for the Davos Meeting next week, not much is on the line for US data next week.
- Breaking below the session lows would see a test of the 49,000 Mini-Support zone but below this, the price action will get bearish.
Dow Jones technical levels for trading:
Resistance Levels
- 49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH Resistance
- All-time Highs 49,710
- 50,000 Potential Psychological Resistance
Support Levels
- session lows 49,259
- Short-term Pivot 49,200 to 49,300 (daily support)
- 49,000 Minor Support
- 48,600 to 48,800 Major Support and November Channel Lows
- Psychological Support at 48,000
- 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)
Nasdaq 4H Chart
Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Nasdaq is still remaining quite rangebound between 24,500 and 25,800.
The issue for bulls at this point is that we are reaching the upper bound of the range and now forming some bearish RSI divergences.
On the other hand, the action is remaining resilient as seen with today's rebound from the lows and the forming of a 4H doji.
- Breaking above (25,760) means further upside a regaining the All-Time Highs.
- Below (25,450) could see a new test of the December lows around 24,500.
Nasdaq technical levels of interest:
Resistance Levels
- intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 CPI fakeout
- Session highs 25,760
- All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
- Current ATH 26,182
Support Levels
- Momentum Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 pts – Session lows 25,450
- Minor Support 25,000 to 25,250
- 24,500 Main support
- Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support
S&P 500 4H Chart
S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView
The S&P 500 is the best looking index overall but also forming indecision patterns.
Now in a large triangle formation, similar breakout scenarios can be estimated to put odds on your side:
- Breaking above (6,980) should easily lead to new all-time highs.
- Below (6,930) should at least test the Wednesday lows at 6,894. Below this, the action gets more bearish.
S&P 500 technical levels of interest:
Resistance Levels
- Session highs 6,970
- Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
- Current ATH Resistance at 7,000
Support Levels
- Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900
- Session lows 6,930
- 6,800 Psychological Support
- Support 6,720 to 6,750
- 6,400 Major psychological support
Safe Trades!
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