Ceasefire uncertainty clears and Wall Street persists – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks are stuck due to recent heightened uncertainty regarding the US-Iran ceasefire
• Stock bulls remain in control with Indexes remaining rangebound despite back-and-forth action in Crude Oil
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

The US-Iran Ceasefire is a fragile one to say the least, but this doesn't prevent ever-hungry Stock Markets to remain strong.

Sentiment quickly turned from extreme fear to what could be considered to be relative greed: Indexes have bounced between 7% to 10% from their War lows in a matter of a few sessions after the rumors, then realization of an actual US-Iran-Israel truce.

The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in fear territory – but this indicator is quite dodgy.

The issue comes from pre-existing disagreements between US and Iranian demands for a proper peace process to engage, as the current ceasefire only aims to find common ground between the Allies and the Islamic regime.

Hezbollah activity has not ceased, leading to pursued Israeli operations in Lebanon and this is a contentious terrain for the brittle negotiations.

The latest news saw US President Trump putting pressure on its Israeli counterpart to de-escalate this battle, and PM Netanyahu just announced that they will be starting direct discussions with the Lebanese Government – A material turn in narrative.

After rallying back above the key $100 level, Crude Oil has started to ease its run higher and this is a soothing development for Stock Markets.

The action was quite muted and uncertain since 9:30 Opening Bell, but the flash news is for now acting as a fresh breeze for buyers to step back in – The move continuing higher will be contingent on how Iran responds and if the situation can really progress from here.

At least, recent pressure from Trump shows that the US is serious about this ceasefire, which should help Market sentiment ahead.

With recent uncertainty freshly clearing, we will look at the short-timeframe intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Oil just doesn't want to correct with persistent Ceasefire uncertainty – WTI Technical analysis
• Markets Today: Reality check hits markets as ceasefire fragility weighs, US PCE data in focus
• The Ceasefire trade is on, but clouds remain – North American Session Market Wrap for April 8

The morning Stock Market Heatmap shows quite a fractured activity, hinting at index and individual equity plays rather than sectorial positioning.

A clear performer of recent action have been Produce Manufacturing stocks that are getting relieved from the better sentiment and cleaner Crude Oil outlook.

One particular winner though is Amazon, flashing higher from the news that their progress on AI in-house chips is going well.

As long as uncertainty reigns, focusing either on the big picture (Indexes) or individual stocks is the way to go.

Dow Jones has entered a consequent bull trend since forming its lows at the beginning of April trading.

The recent Israel-Lebanon talks headlines have preceded yet another bounce in the Index, but traders will have to be cautious as prices now reach a significant resistance level (March 4 war Resistance at 48,250).

• Breaking back above would leave the bull-trend intact
• Rejecting the resistance however would hint at a retracement
  • The first stop would be at the 50-Hour MA (47,610)
  • The second stop is the 47,000 Psychological support

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• March 4 Resistance 48,250 to 48,300
• Mini-resistance 48,700
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200

Support Levels

• Bull/Bear Momentum Pivot at 48,000
• Major Pivotal Support 47,400 to 47,600 (50-Hour MA)
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,300
• 45,700 to 45,900 August Support
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq is now showing relative weakness after its significant 10% rally, failing to breach its past session's 25,100 highs.

The 25,000 to 25,250 higher timeframe is acting as a restrictive signal which will need to be breached for the action to have higher odds to reach all-time highs in coming times.

• Rejecting lower from here would point to a retest of the 24,700 Pivot area.
• Breaking 25,100 would point at 25,250
  • Next stop will be 25,400

A proper truce will be necessary for further progress, as always, keep track of the headlines.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,250
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistance
• Major resistance 25,700 to 25,850

Support Levels

• 24,750 to 24,900 Momentum Pivot
• 24,450 to 24,550 Pivotal Support
• Feb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200
• Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000
• August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 has, like the Dow Jones, broken its previous day's highs after the Israel-Lebanon talks news, but the action is stalling at the key 6,840 resistance.

Breaching it would be a stronger sign for times ahead, with the next stop at 6,880.

Rejecting current levels however would also point to a retest of the 50-Hour Moving Average (6,750).

• Breaking below this hints at 6,700.

Keep track of the bull channel!

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Early March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840
• Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975

Support Levels

• Major Momentum Pivot 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Pivotal Support (4H 200-period MA)
• 6,580 to 6,610 Support
• 4H 50-period MA 6,550
• 6,490 to 6,520 October lows
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

The narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

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