The Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the Dollar

As Macron noted, this trading week initiates what many call the new world disorder – "A world without rules".

This shift arguably began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the precedent has only deepened. With Trump landing in Davos tomorrow for the WEF, global leaders are voicing strong concerns about the current geopolitical landscape.

The latest Board of Peace initiatives from the Trump administration appear designed to further sideline the UN.

Consequently, the US Dollar is facing further rejection as market participants diversify away from erratic US policies. Confidence in the Greenback as a stable reserve currency is eroding as fears from 2025 materialize.

These fears include tariffs, provocations against allies, and attacks on Federal Reserve independence. Despite the US Economy's and Fed's resilience, capital is flowing away from the Dollar.

Gold hit new record highs this morning (to $4,750) as a direct beneficiary.

Conversely, the Japanese Yen remains in a steep downtrend driven by debt burdens and rising yields, hence it can't really sustain its safe-haven reputation.

In this environment, the Swiss Franc has emerged as the primary safe haven.

With SNB rates at 0%, it is also becoming a target for the carry trade. As risk assets like stocks and crypto face rejection alongside the Dollar, the Franc is up another 1% in today's session.

Let's explore the multi-timeframe chart analysis for USD/CHF to see where these flows might take the high-volume traded pair.

Explore:

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USD/CHF has been stuck in a broader range since July 2025, unable to manage a proper rebound or continue to the downside as the geopolitical and economic dynamics completely eased in the second half.

Volatility is now back to some extremes in FX Markets, particularly in a pair normally held in a ~400 pip average daily range – Today's 1.10% max movement took USD/CHF down some monthly lows and prompting a further breakdown.

Indeed, the action had completely waned out but bears could retake the upper hand looking at the ongoing themes, combined with a 200-Day Moving Average which just caught up with prices.

Sellers also used the 50-Day MA (0.7987) as selling signal and will act as key pivotal indicator for bull/bear action going forward.

Dip-buyers are now attempting a retracement from the key support.

Still, some key supports which quickly turned into resistances will now have to be breached for a further rebound (without counting a strong turn in current fundamentals).

• Look for key reactions at the 0.7950 - 0.7960 resistance.

Levels of interest for USD/CHF Trading

Resistance levels

• 0.7925 Minor Pivot
• 0.7950 - 0.7960 Key Resistance
• Short-timeframe pivot 0.7990 and 4H 50-period MA (yesterday's highs)

Support levels

• 0.79 (+80 pips) 2025 main support (Immediate Bounce
• Current Session Lows 0.7878
• 2011 support 0.7830 to 0.7860
• 2025 Lows 0.7830

Looking closer shows how steep the current move is, with dip-buyers re-entering the pair.

When watching the current pace of the selloff, mean-reversion is not suprising but might also not be long-lived.

• A 15 point rally to the 0.7925 Pivot is not far away, and forming a pullback-top here will test the session lows.
  • Below that, the next major point will be found at the 2025 0.7830 lows
• If bulls manage a rebound above, the 0.7950 Resistance looks like a decent entry for sellers to retake the advantage
• USD/CHF can really breakout higher only in the event of another Trump TACO.
  • Keep a close eye on the WEF headlines!

Safe Trades!

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