Another red wave – Dow Jones & Nasdaq higher timeframe Outlook

• Stock Benchmarks now all drag lower after the past few sessions of divergence
• With recent tech sector outflows, risk-assets are taking a hit
• Exploring High Timeframe Technical Levels for the Dow Jones and Nasdaq.

Risk assets are not enjoying their 2026 resolutions.

Kevin Warsh’s impact on markets remains unclear, but the immediate price action since his nomination has been far from reassuring. For clarity, he will only officially become the next Fed Chair after Senate confirmation.

Equity indexes had already been flashing warning signs, with a persistent and sharp divergence between heavy outflows from Tech and Semiconductors — despite record earnings — and inflows into more defensive sectors.

What stood out in today’s session is that even dovish data failed to lift sentiment (compared to how Markets reacted to them in 2025).

This morning’s releases showed a sharp drop in job openings (JOLTS at 6.542M vs 7.2M expected), while layoffs surged at the highest pace for January since 2009, according to the latest Challenger report.

Markets will get more clarity next week with the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls release (Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.), but until then, uncertainty dominates.

What appears to be weighing most on markets is a broad deleveraging from extreme Debasement Trades that became heavily one-sided throughout 2025.

Bitcoin is now trading below $70,000 (more on this later today), and Metals are also under pressure.

As profits are taken and stop-losses are triggered, price moves can become exaggerated.

Looking at current flows and higher-timeframe charts, this selloff still looks like a profit-taking phase — suggesting there may be more to come.

In that aspect, let's dive into a Higher timeframe analysis and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones and Nasdaq.

Read More:

• Metals are turning bearish – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook
• Markets Today: German factory orders surge, silver slumps, NFP release delayed as BoE & ECB Meeting lie ahead
• WTI in focus with US-Iran talks cancelled – US Oil Outlook

The picture is not a good looking one. Selloffs are widespread across the board and aren't solely focused on Tech.

Some names including Broadcom, Meta and Costco are holding resilient but not seemingly helping the broad sentiment.

The Dow is actually not showing signs of weakness on its higher timeframe charts despite the current rough session – Keep a close look to see if the 48,600 to 49,700 intraday range holds.

Still evolving in a major upward channel since June 2025, the 48,000 Weekly pivot has been acting as key support in the ongoing consolidation.

Consolidating at relative highs is not considered a sign of weakness, nevertheless, a bullish push towards 50,000 might be required to avoid profit-taking from breaking the lower bound of the Channel.

Any break of this major level could face a quick test of the 45,000 which is the next main support.

Dow Jones Higher timeframe technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Session highs 49,614
• High timeframe 49,000 to 50,000 resistance
• All-time Highs 49,710 (CFD) – Index ATH is at 49,653
• Potential resistance at 51,000

Support Levels

• 48,840 session lows
• 48,000 short-timeframe Support, High timeframe Pivot
• Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700
• 45,000 Main psychological Support
• 42,600 to 42,800 Main Support Zone

Nasdaq is looking much less resilient compared to its older brother.

A volatile range is holding the action between 24,000 and 26,000 but the failure to retake new all-time highs after last week's rebound point to further downside.

The 24,500 to 25,000 pivot acts as a Major momentum guide, hence closing below on the week may trigger further profit-taking cascade.

This would go along with the high-paced outflows happening in Tech.

If nothing too extreme develops, an interesting dip-buying opportunity could emerge at the 50-week Moving average (23,000).

Failing to rebound from there can easily open the door to 20,000 in the Nasdaq – For now this remains far, but the shorter timeframe price action isn't looking so bright either.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-Time High resistance 26,000 to 26,330
• Momentum Weekly Pivot from 24,500 to 25,000 (testing)
• 26,246 FOMC highs
• Potential resistance on a breakout at 27,220

Support Levels

• Range lows and Minor Support 24,000
• 23,000 Major July Support
• 22,000 to 22,229 (early 2025 ATH) Key Support Zone
• 20,000 May Bounce Support

Safe Trades and keep an eye on headlines in the Middle East!

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