Stocks reach new lows as War goes on – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks reach new War lows as Oil continues to explode with Brent back above $110
• Hopes for a peace deal were short-lived, with Markets now pricing an escalation over the weekend
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Equities are feeling the intense heat of the swift return to risk-aversion.

US stock benchmarks have dropped to new lows since the conflict began, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 under the most severe pressure (while the Dow Jones is not there yet).

Across the board, major indices are down 1% and more for the session, with the pump-fake from Monday now turning against itself: Any hopes for a quick peace deal have proven short-lived, and the market's previous easing in sentiment was merely a timid pause.

Bulls who bought that dip are now paying the consequences.

The cause: A classic, violent rebound in Energy markets: Oil continues to surge, with Brent crude pushing back above the critical $110 per barrel mark. This spike in energy costs is logically reawakening inflation fears and dragging down risk assets – But this time, Gold is actually faring better.

The particular turn comes from the fact that traders are actively pricing in the risk of a severe escalation over the weekend: The impending arrival of a 4,500-strong Marine fleet in the Middle East is adding to the immense geopolitical anxiety.

Investors are tracking headlines by the minute, waiting to see if an anticipated Iranian counter-proposal to a security deal actually materializes.

As traditional markets close, all eyes will turn to Bitcoin over the weekend. Because it trades 24/7, it will act as the primary real-time barometer for global sentiment.

Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Gold (XAU/USD) bounces despite the Oil rally, a first since the US-Iran War – In-depth outlook
• Chart alert: WTI crude oil minor pullback over, start of new bullish leg for breakout above $102.25
• Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overview

Today's selloff is surprisingly pulled by the largest Cap Stocks and isn't so widespread, with Energy Stocks naturally appreciating form the bounce in commodities, but Utilities and Industrials are somehow rising despite the broad pessimistic mood – A turn to defensives?

Among the laggards, some large-cap Finance Stocks are getting hammered, including JP Morgan, Visa and Mastercard, while virtually all the Mag 7s are also dropping, and Amazon being the worst performer of them all.

DJIA has officially re-entered its bear channel after a failed attempt to break above – Bulls could no hold the 4H 50-period MA, rejecting the Major 46,600 intraday level signaled throughout our analysis from this week.

Now 300 point shy from its War lows, the Index will face pressure ahead if the narrative doesn't get better, particularly with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq breaking their own lows.

A short-term target for the current selloff would be the lows of the channel around 44,500-44,600.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 45,700 to 45,900 August Pivot
• 46,300 intraday momentum resistance (4H 50-period MA)
• Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)
• Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650
• Key Resistance at 48,000
• 48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistance

Support Levels

• January 2025 Highs and War Lows 45,280
• Channel lows 44,600
• Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500
• Major Support 43,500 to 43,750

Nasdaq is now testing a pivotal support that preceded the rally to its end-2025 records.

The ongoing selloff is a brutal one, with a measured move hinting at 23,000 if bulls fail to hold the current levels. Watch out for a gap lower to there depending on weekend narratives.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• August 2025 Pivot at 23,500 to 23,650
• Major 2026 range lows 23,800 to 24,000
• 24,450 to 25,550 resistance
• Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)

Support Levels

• September 2025 pivotal Support at 23,300 to 23,400
• Session lows 23,290
• Next Main Support at 23,000 higher timeframe support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 now officially broke its prior war lows, extending within its Major downward channel.

The next support is at 6,360 to 6,380; if bulls can't manage to show up significantly there, the Index may be doomed for a harsher correction ahead (Currently only -8.50% from its ATH)

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,442 War Lows Current Pivot
• 6,570 to 6,600 Double Bottom Pivot
• 6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance
• 6,740 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800

Support Levels

• 6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support & Channel Lows
• 6,300 psychological level
• January 2025 ATH 6,152

Safe Trades and Keep track of headlines and Bitcoin over the weekend!

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