Nvidia Beats, Dollar surges from Hawkish FOMC Minutes – Market wrap for the North American session - November 19

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 19

Markets were already going back and forth in anticipation of the Nvidia earnings, but they got even more food for thought with a double-header of macro and micro shocks.

US Equity futures, particularly the Nasdaq, are raging higher after Nvidia (NVDA) published yet another beat on some already sky-high expectations.

Nvidia shares have surged to $191.90 in after-close trading, up about 3% and counting.

This beat provides exactly what the market needed in uncertain times, serving as a potent counter-narrative to the doubts on how sustainable the Stock Market rally is.

On a more gloomy note for Equity bulls, the FOMC Minutes turned more hawkish as traders were already pricing out the December cut aggressively, and the latest Fed report put a nail in the coffin—at least for now.

The minutes revealed a distinct lack of confidence in immediate easing, with the report stating: "Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."

This revelation likely takes out dreams of further cuts for 2025 and brings back a rough question for Markets:

Is the "higher for longer" narrative making a comeback?

Read More:

• North American mid-week Market update – US Data is finally back!
• NFP Preview: BLS Announces No October Report, November Report Delayed to After Fed Meeting. Rate Cut Bets Tumble Further, Implications for the DXY
• US Market Outlook – Nasdaq attempts a run higher, but Bulls can't go too far

Today saw some relief in Equities, particularly for the post-close Nasdaq which caught fire after the huge Nvidia Earnings.

Now participants will expect further continuation higher tomorrow. If not, things will look ugly.

Bitcoin and Cryptos got sold off quite harshly again today, but some return of appetite in Tech after the NVDA numbers could put some hype back on the table. Everything will be in play tomorrow.

The US Dollar largely led the dance in Forex today, with an initial strong move magnified by the Hawkish FOMC minutes which put chills in all participants who thought it was going to be an easy path towards the Neutral Rate.

Among the laggers today, the Antipodean currencies which are seeing consecutive outflows.

Tonight's PBoC Rate Decision (21:30 ET) is having its impact on the selling in the AUD and NZD, so keep an eye on that.

Tomorrow's session is stacked with finally, a return of US data.

The early bird session begins with the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (3:00 A.M. ET), checking on the inflation pipeline, followed by German Buba report.

However, the day truly starts with the North American session (8:30 A.M. ET), which will see the release of a massive tranche of US labor data:

• A late September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) with Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. The data will be outdated but still watched closely by all the traders.
• Also releasing is the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the influential Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.

To compliment the data, Markets are awaiting comments from several influential FED members (Cook, Goolsbee, Miran) and BoE's Dhingra.

The evening session should also be busy for JPY traders, who are focused on the Japanese National CPI (19:30 ET) tomorrow evening. This inflation figure is absolutely critical in shaping expectations for the Bank of Japan's future policy. Also on watch are the preliminary Australian S&P Global PMIs (18:00 ET) for the AUD.

Don't forget the Walmart earnings right at the pre-open!

Safe Trades!

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