Metals suffer from their upside fake-out – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook

• Silver, Gold, and other Metals completely faked out to the upside in the past week and are now suffering from their weak tops
• Long yields are exploding, and this adds further pressure to the non-yielding precious commodities
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD

Precious metals surged higher last week, only to quickly reverse and drop due to weak price levels. It looked like metals were gaining control, with strong rallies reaching new two-month highs. But this momentum turned out to be a classic bull trap.

The main reason for this big reversal is the fast rise of the Warsh Trade. After Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, markets quickly adjusted for a major tightening of monetary policy. This change led to a strong, lasting increase in the US Dollar and a sharp drop in bond prices.

As a result, long-term treasury yields are rising quickly. This big jump in yields makes interest-bearing assets much more appealing to large investors. Because gold and silver do not pay interest, they are under heavy pressure

Why hold a zero-yield metal when government paper is offering increasingly rising risk-free returns?

Looking ahead, if the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape remains frustratingly cloudy and deadlocked, Gold may still see occasional safe-haven demand to cushion its downside.

However, higher-beta, industrial-leaning alternatives like Copper and Silver may continue struggling under the sheer weight of a surging US Dollar and restrictive financial conditions. Crucial, trend-defining price action is rapidly approaching for the entire asset class.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for the action ahead.

Read More:

• The Warsh Trade and the US Dollar – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview
• Is the Stock Markets rally over? – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday Levels
• Asia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rally

Gold is rejecting its resistance and now struggling at the $4,500 support – With the descending RSI, the odds are towards a support break.

Any break back above $4,600 on momentum would undo the bearish outlook.

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Daily Momentum Pivot $4,650 - $4,700
• $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (Testing, bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100
• Next Support $3,880 to $4,000

Silver completely erased its past week's progress and back right within its longer-run $70 to $84 range.

Buyers are weakly stepping in at the $74 support, but with the descending RSI and weak candles, odds for a break lower are high.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Pivot $79 to $80
• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50
• Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• Micro support $74 - $76
• $70 - $71.50 April Support (Bearish below)
• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier