Markets weekly outlook - June US NFP, Global PMIs and German Employment

Markets had been enjoying from renewed positive sentiment after the US intervened in the Israel-Iran conflict which led to the reaching of a ceasefire agreement. The news sent Equities booming higher after a choppy past two weeks.

The Nasdaq reached new all-time highs on Wednesday and the S&P 500 joined its tech-focused brother just yesterday – Both indices had been pursuing their bullish impulses before this early afternoon's change in mood.

Donald Trump just announced that he is cancelling trade talks with Canada and the resumption of trade sanctions on Iran, sending stock markets back down to re-test their previous all-time highs.

Local highs for the Nasdaq (CFD) are at 22,632 and for the S&P 500 (CFD) 6,195.

For the rest, the week had been fairly calm despite the release of a fall in the US GDP and higher Core PCE this morning, putting stagflation talks back on the table.

Markets are also waiting for the release of the US Bank Stress Test results, releasing at 4:30 PM which may be a major market mover in the case of a bad surprise – A good moment to remind that March 2023 had seen major market turmoil as the Silicon Valley Bank failed, which led to the Federal Reserve imposing new regulations.

Read More: Trump cancels trade talks with Canada, USDCAD shoots up

Next week could bring renewed surprises to financial markets, with traders closely eyeing Thursday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Typically released on the last Friday of each month, this month’s data will come a day early due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 4th, when markets will be closed.

Canada will also be observing its national holiday on July 1st, adding to what could be a week of lighter liquidity and potentially sharper moves around key data.

Next week is going to be fairly light in terms of economic data release for Asia-Pacific countries.

China will see the release of its monthly PMI releases on Sunday evening, with the most important datapoint being China's Manufacturing PMI, with the previous data releasing in the contraction territory (below 50)

For the rest, Japan will see the most action on Tuesday with Japanese Consumer Confidence with a consensus of 33.6 at 1:00 A.M. ET and later, BoJ Governor Ueda will later appear in the annual Central Bank conference in Sintra, Portugal – Speech expected at 9:30 A.M the same day.

Australia will see the release of its Balance of Trade on Wednesday 21:30 ET, which tends to move the AUD.

The beginning of this week's release will focus on individual Inflation monthly data for Italy and Germany on Monday June 30, followed by the Flash CPI release for the Eurozone the following day at 5:00 A.M.

For Euro traders, also monitor the Unemployment Rate on Tuesday at 3:55 A.M. (Eastern Time).

In North America, markets await for the US Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday at 8:30 (exp at 48.8), and JOLTS at 10:00 A.M. which only moves markets on major surprises.

However, most traders will be on the sidelines to prepare for Thursday, largely the most consequential day of the upcoming week.
Non-Farm Payrolls data for June, expected at 129K releases at 8:30 on the July 3rd, followed by the more market-moving Services PMI at 10:00 (exp at 50.3)

The US Dollar had started the week on a higher note as markets gapped all around with the US Intervention in the news, before giving back all its strength as sentiment got much better after the Ceasefire agreement.

Since, the Dollar has been on a flash sale. The DXY is closing below its previous swing lows.

Oil is by far the worst performer, giving up most of its war premium, giving back above 11%. You can access our latest analysis on the energy commodity here.

The best performers on the week however are US Stocks, which finish the week off their highs as Donald Trump shook markets again – They are still on an impressive run.