Bears take the advantage but Trump saves the day – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks erase their past day gains as the tone largely sours
• The dip-buying free lunch is now expired with the Trump deadline approaching fast. Traders are getting prepared for escalation
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Hoping for the best amid historically uncertain times is the best that one can do.

It has worked in the past, but this doesn't come without cost. This ongoing conflict in Iran has been unpredictable to say the least, and this only reflects the current US administration's erratic stance.

Both sides have reportedly sought a deal, but to what extent is the key question. A military buildup has once again amassed in the region in previous weeks to pressure the Islamic regime into a deal that would allow it to give up most of its leverage, leading to the President calling for a deadline to reach a truce by 8:00 P.M (ET).

UPDATE: Trump is considering another extension of the deadline as talks are reportedly advancing – Markets are rebounding on the news

However, just yesterday, Iran rejected the initial plan as the IRGC pleaded for reparations for the damage and denied any idea that would compromise their ballistic missile capabilities.

Two points that would be difficult to hear for the allies after the damage done across the Middle East, particularly to energy and civilian infrastructure.

While the ease in tone from the past few weeks helped soothe Stock Markets from overly short positioning, WTI Crude kept breaking new weekly highs, indicating how cloudy the situation truly remains:

While the inverted correlation between the commodity and Stock Markets ceased last week, the daily rises in Oil are hurting Equities again.

Overall, the free lunch is over for dip-buyers, with the bar consequently rising for further progress in the stock markets.

Bulls will need to see a proper truce to hope for an actual rally – 47,000 in the Dow Jones is the level to watch for a positive outlook!

To get ready for the coming deadline, let’s examine the intraday charts, scenarios, and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Markets Today: Oil retreats, Gold rises as cautious tone dominates, Trump deadline now in focus
• Chart alert: Japan’s Nikkei 225 is flashing bearish breakdown conditions below the 50-day MA
• The first War inflation tests – Markets Weekly Outlook

Today's Market picture is struggling to gather any form of positivity, particularly with the largest titles struggling.

Apple is leading to the downside, down 4.55% and leading a Mag 7 tumble – Even Tesla and Walmart are among the struggling names.

Only the Energy Sector is managing well with the ongoing persistent rally in WTI.

The Dow freshly rejected its 47,000 resistance, forming a double top as the mood progressively soured across the asset board.

Sellers are taking the immediate advantage and are currently breaking the current momentum pivot zone around 46,300.

• The next key level to test is 46,170 (4H 50-period MA), any continuation below would reinstate the major war downtrend.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (bullish above)
• Momentum Resistance 47,400 to 47,600
• Key Resistance at 48,000
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200

Support Levels

• March 8 War lows Resistance now Pivot 46,300 (breaking! Bearish below)
• 45,700 to 45,900 August Support
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280
• Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500
• Major Support 43,500 to 43,750

Some live news just changed the Market flows, with Trump reportedly considering another pushback to his deadline, easing a 2% drop in the Nasdaq back above the 24,000 key psychological level.

Uncertainty remains: Any close above 24,000 maintains a hopeful path ahead, while dropping below should see further bearish momentum

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• February Resistance 24,150 to 24,200 (immediate test)
• 24,450 to 25,550 resistance (4H 200-period MA)
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)

Support Levels

• Major 2026 Pivot (bear below) 23,800 to 24,000
• August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650
• 22,900 to 23,000 higher timeframe major support
• 22,600 August 2025 Support Zone
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

Sellers tried to push the S&P 500 back into the bear channel but Trump's latest deadline pushback helped to build a path to rebound.

As long as the action remains below 6,600, bears retain the advantage (Watch out for the 4H 50-period MA acting as support – 6,518).

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,580 to 6,610 Main Resistance (rejected)
• 6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance
• 6,740 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800

Support Levels

• 6,490 to 6,520 October lows Pivot
• 6,442 Past week dip
• 6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support & Channel Lows
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)
• January 2025 ATH 6,152

Safe Trades and a Successful Week!

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