Trump TACO on the menu – North American session Market wrap for January 21

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 21

Markets just got their latest shot of surprise with Trump's latest comments, backing off on his recent Greenland rhetoric.

In a mid-afternoon Truth Social post, the President stated that he will not pursue the purchase of Greenland, having, during the recent tensions and discussions, formed a key arrangement for the Arctic region and Denmark, particularly concerning the Golden Dome.

With tariffs expected to be levied, the Stock Market is bouncing sharply higher, and the risk premium seen in Gold and Platinum is easing.

Silver could also be showing signs of a correction, as the parabolic trend stalled despite today's initial risk-off action – keep a very close eye on the commodity, as traders can expect significant volatility there if the asset-specific bubble pops.

So nothing happened? Looking at the recent Market movement, it seems like it.

Nevertheless, angst will remain as unpredictability from the US President stays extreme.

It will be interesting to see how global leaders react to the announcement.

Most speeches at the WEF revolved around the New World Order – Traders are just happy to receive their TACO order.

Bulls are back strong in today's Stock Market action, and even the struggling Crypto class is rallying.

Overall, it's not like things will just go back to the way they were over the past 25 years.

Nevertheless, our Rules-Based international system isn't just going to collapse like this, at least as long as the US is still a democracy.

Still, there are many reasons to be concerned about the recent geopolitical madness. Let's see how things go and pray for the best.

Discover:

• A New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market update
• Metals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook
• Stocks pump but doubts remain – Dow Jones and US Stock Index Outlook

Most of the Stock Market shined green in today's rebound session.

Volatility and uncertainty remain very high, which isn't the best for the Stock Market and Investor sentiment – I don't think that today's rebound will just lead to a one-way ride to new all-time highs, things could still get bumpy.

With the latest flows suddenly switching, Metals have given back their premium.

They now stand at pretty fragile territories, a good moment to check back on our recent Metals piece.

Except for Natural Gas which is once again squeezing higher by a huge 30% (!), all other asset classes have mean-reverted from their early week action.

Volatility should largely subside except if anything else happens – Keep a close eye on upcoming trading as it should resemble to next week's action, all the way to the January 28 FOMC.

FX Flows are taking a more concrete direction, with the CHF giving back its premium from earlier this week and the AUD & NZD combo elevating once again to new cycle highs.

Antipodeans could remain strong for a while, as strong fundamentals and their position on the globe isolates them from the volatile European and American tensions, without even mentioning the Middle East.

The US Dollar is now unchanged on the session – Its outlook is going to be confusing, and they will surely remain like this until the FOMC.

There will be high expectations for Intel and Proctor&Gamble.

Wednesday’s evening session is loaded with APAC action.

Japan releases its full December trade data slate — exports, imports and the trade balance — offering a fresh read on external demand and yen sensitivity.

Shortly after, Australia takes centre stage with its December labour market report, where employment, participation and the jobless rate will be key for near-term RBA expectations.

Thursday then pivots decisively back to Europe and the US.

Early on, Germany’s Buba report and ECB monetary accounts set the euro tone before US markets are hit with a dense macro block: Q3 GDP and price components, jobless claims, and a full run of PCE inflation, income and spending data for October and November.

With core PCE at the heart of Fed reaction functions, this cluster has the potential to drive rates and FX into the weekend – Next week will welcome the January FOMC Meeting (Decision on Wednesday 28!)

Looking ahead, tomorrow’s evening session could be especially eventful, as the Bank of Japan steps into focus.

While any move is far from guaranteed, markets are increasingly alert to the risk of a potential (not-so-surprising) rate hike — a scenario that could boost recent JPY volatility even further

Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier