Market relief despite Iran intervention uncertainty – North American session Market wrap for January 15

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 15

Today's session was positive compared to yesterday as the late rally continued.

The Trump administration quickly moved to new tariff deals after calling off the Iran intervention – Diplomats from Taiwan and the US agreed to a 15% tariff rate in exchange for a $500B investment pledge.

It remains difficult to estimate if the Iran intervention will materialize as conflicting signs emerge.

• The extensive communication regarding the potential attack made the event predictable.
• The administration is also debating whether an intervention would successfully achieve regime change, as the US aims to avoid a situation similar to Iraq more than 20 years later.
• However, the USS Abraham Lincoln is still traveling to the Middle East from the South China Sea and should arrive in a few days.

Internet access in Iran has been cut for over 170 hours and casualties are extremely numerous (some estimates are above +12,000).

Betting markets currently still imply a 40% chance of US intervention before January 31, rising from 30% this morning.

Equities and Oil have largely reversed the fear-driven moves from yesterday.

Oil fell 5% from its $62 peak and equities returned to recent highs in a single session.

Time will tell if this reflects complacency from ever-hungry dip-buyers. Only time will tell.

One thing is for sure, Investors are easily disregarding geopolitical noise these days.

The largest part of the 2025 rally came after the 12-Day War, so precedent is on the Bulls side.

Tomorrow's session will be interesting with weekend risk approaching.

Discover:

• Anxiety is rising in Markets – North American mid-week Market update
• Metals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook
• WTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?

Except for semiconductors and Industrials rising, the picture is still fairly mixed, expressing a confusing or at least uncertain view for Stocks.

Cryptocurrencies are decorrelating quite remarkably from Stocks as of late, with them seemingly only appreciating when Indexes correct.

The real outperformer, to the downside, naturally is Black Gold which took quite a hit after the calmer Middle East tensions. The Iran Premium remains until ~$58.50 which should stay relatively bid until that theme really goes away.

Apart from these classes, the US dollar really stands out this week, also pushing US treasuries higher as Metals see a first rough session since beginning 2026.

Get access to our latest in-detail piece to learn why.

Except for the AUD, JPY and USD, the rest of the FX space has been quite dull.

About the Aussie, it has been rising quite strongly from its correlation with the much better Chinese data and bouncing further from the better risk-sentiment in today's session.

On the other side of the performance chart, the Pound got sold off despite its decent GDP numbers, as traders capitalize from the 4,000 pips rally in GBP/USD and even greater gains against the JPY for example.

Keep a close eye on the recent US Dollar strength for clues.

Once again, tomorrow will see a very thin calendar which leaves space for headlines.

Euro traders will focus on German Industrial production for Euro clues as EUR/USD still moves in a relative downtrend.

For the rest, expect to see FedSpeak surprise as Sunday afternoon will mark the beginning of the Fed Blackout Period.

Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East developments!

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