Fed's Warsh and Ceasefire-end triggers Market Double tops – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks are now correcting after holding strong in the morning session with To-be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking
• The US-Iran Ceasefire is at the center stage with Iran's confirmation for talks still awaited
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

U.S. stock benchmarks attempted a run above recent highs in the morning, even without any clearer picture on the US-Iran issue.

This is largely the most influential factor in Markets this morning's action, with the US reconfirming that it will travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, for the second round of talks only if Iran confirms, but Iran has been dodging the question for quite some time now.

From what the Iranians said, they do not want to participate in talks as long as the US Blockade on Hormuz continues, but this is the pressure point that the Trump Administration is applying to chokehold the Islamic regime into a deal.

Odds for an April 30 peace deal dropped from 60% last Friday to below 30%, pressuring Stock Markets.

Major US Indexes are now forming intraday double-tops, which could prove uncomfortable for current heavily bullish pricing.

All-time highs in current periods are hard to justify amid current economic pressures (even if the US winning on the mid-term macroeconomic side from the spike in American Crude oil orders).

Add to this the ongoing Senate interview of Kevin Warsh, who is being heavily questioned about his independence (and also doing his fair share of navigating the questions), and the markets are facing a pressure point.

The nominee is strongly advocating reforming the inflation outlook and the Fed Balance Sheet, with a focus primarily on Monetary Policy.

His comments on the balance sheet have weighed on rebounding equity prices and supported the US Dollar's continued rebound.

The Clock to Wednesday, the end of the ceasefire, is still ticking, and this is starting to weigh on previously undefeated Stock Market bulls.

Below, we analyze intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

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• To be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking at the US Senate
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The Stock Market is now falling with a broad struggle, not focused on a particular sector except for the Health Sector taking a general hit and a few big names like Apple and Nvidia pulling back.

The DJIA somehow extended above its weekend gap despite the uncertainty, but the action isn't anymore pretty because of this, quite the contrary, having failed to retest the 50,000 level.

After breaching the Friday top, the Dow marked a fakeout and turned lower aggressively, with 1H RSI momentum quickly turning bearish – forming a double-top looking price action.

The 50-Hour MA is getting tested, any extension below 49,260 would break the upward channel and hint at further downside ahead, notably re-entering the Pivot Zone.

Any breach of 49,000 would see bearish acceleration to 48,500.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Weekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 & 50-Hour MA
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq has now formed a clear double top at previous session highs and is now falling below its 50-hour MA (26,630).

If bearish pressures continue, the action could easily lead to a re-test of the 26,200 October Record levels.

Any extension below points to a larger correction (25,500 seems like a decent intraday target if selling accelerates). Flows will heavily depend on Iran.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 50-Hour MA 26,630
• Daily resistance 26,600 to 26,750
• New all-time highs 26,736
• Potential Resistance at 27,000

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday Support
• War Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is also trading below its 50-hour MA which caught up fast to the current action (7,115) and sellers are now pushing the index below 7,100.

Coming close to the lower bound of the bull-channel, look for a break particularly if Iran fails to confirm their participation in talks ahead of the Ceasefire.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Week-end gap 7,100 resistance
• 7,115 50-Hour MA
• New all-time resistance 7,150
• Next key potential resistance 7,200

Support Levels

• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

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