Any progress in negotiations? Markets are stuck – North American Session Market Wrap for March 25

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 25

We are now concluding a second very passive trading session in Markets, with Participants still digesting the crazy past week and Monday developments.

Sentiment remains more positive than it ever was since the beginning of the month, marking definite progress; However, like the French philosopher August Comte said, "everything is relative" (FYI, it actually isn't an Einstein quote).

Markets can bloom on just the simple fact that the situation is not getting worse. Pricing Markets is a game of uncertainty, or lack thereof – And the confirming US-Iran discussions are what led to the overnight drop in Oil prices to ~$90 (from $95) in WTI.

Once again, as long as WTI doesn't close above $100, the panic in Markets remains controlled.

Global asset's inverse correlation with Crude prices remains the most important element in Markets, which allowed a positive session across Metals, Stocks, Bonds and Cryptos.

Traders can expect the situation to remain confusing and see no concrete avancements until Friday evening, so timid rebounds may still prevail – but watch out for Thursday's which have emerged as seasonally tough on assets since early 2026.

Read More:

• Fragile optimism stands in Equities, what's next? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• A better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market Update
• Global markets swing on US–Iran war headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crude

Except for Nvidia and Amazon outperforming other mega caps, defensive stocks seem to take the lead in the recent cautious Market rebound.

Look for broad sector plays instead of individual stocks, which haven't shown any form of consistency since Monday – at least, as long as clouds remain.

As you can see on the chart above, the inverse correlation between Oil and other assets remains the key to understand Market flows.

But one asset class has emerged as the best performers, and understandably considering their extended moves on Monday – It's the Metals.

WTI is rebounding towards $93 as we speak (Brent towards $100) so we are entering a area of risk ahead; Make sure to be flexible on your biases in case the situation changes in a flash.

Surprisingly, the US Dollar is remaining resilient despite the overnight correction in WTI, so FX traders will have to watch out for this decorrelation.

The Aussie Dollar could find interesting plays ahead as it has now been trending lower in the past few session, with the RBA potentially moving towards a slower or ceased hike cycle ahead, particularly after the (small) CPI miss yesterday.

Tomorrow will focus heavily on Central Bank speeches as no major data releases (except for the Jobless Claims) are to be expected.

Traders will focus on the headlines and WTI instead.

Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.

Safe Trades!

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