Gold (XAU/USD) bounces despite the Oil rally, a first since the US-Iran War – In-depth outlook

The progressive explosion in Crude prices, driven by failed hopes of a resolution to the Middle East conflict, has sent global assets struggling.

Investors and traders have been wondering how Gold, as a safe-haven and a traditional hedge against inflation, has been struggling so much throughout the entire month with bombs thrown around the Gulf.

Metals were actually large victims of their own prior success – After consistently rallying since October 2024, the asset class burnt its own wings.

Heavily chased commodities can see brutal swings when demand dampens: as money flows rushed into Crude and the fundamental backdrop turned more hawkish, investors turned away from the shiny metals.

With most asset managers already long the asset class, as expressed in the February BoFA Survey, no one was there to withhold the pressure.

But after a 25% correction in Gold, we could see the Bullion actually dominate its peers in the coming days – So why now?

A few technical patterns are providing some demand for it, like the 200-Day MA acting as support (see below). Still, more importantly, Gold is the only asset rallying while stocks, bonds, and other metals like Silver and Platinum are tumbling.

It has been a rough stretch for Metals, but Goldie could rise from the ashes, particularly if investors start to price in further escalation (as seen with Oil rallying back to $98 today).

After large corrections, it wouldn't be surprising to see the ultimate safe-haven gain back some demand with global economy projected to struggle .

Let's attack a high-level intraday analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) as it attempts to break its curse amid the ongoing war.

Read More:

• Chart alert: WTI crude oil minor pullback over, start of new bullish leg for breakout above $102.25
• Markets Today: Risk-Off sentiment supports the Dollar as US consumer sentiment data lies ahead
• Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overview

It would definitely not be crazy to assume that the correction for Gold has come a long way, particularly as the selling erased most of the extension the Metal did in 2026.

Weekly RSI is now back to neutral, allowing future movement to flow with less resistance.

Tumbling close to 25% to $4,100 lows, the Bullion rejected its support in an attempt to regain its Major momentum pivot – Also forming a dragonfly doji (more bullish than bearish, but also a sign of hesitancy).

• Breaking above $4,500 and closing there on the daily could easily relaunch the commodity towards $5,000 – with the current state of Markets, that would mostly happen on a slow grind higher.

• But with dojis, one also has to consider the downside – A daily close below the 50-Week MA $3,965 opens the door for a larger correction to $3,500 (less probable for now).

Looking closer, Gold did find significant support at its 200-Day MA, and after its previous day's failed dip below the key $4,400 level, bulls are now taking the advantage, particularly after a Daily bullish RSI divergence.

Momentum still seems hesitant, and it will stay the same as long as prices remain within the $4,300 to $4,500 range –Any daily close above $4,550 (December 2025 record) would launch the commodity higher.

After the large correction however, it would be difficult to see it suddenly explode (as said before, a progressive grind higher would make more technical sense).

Resistance Levels:

• $4,550 December 2025 record (intraday resistance)
• February Wick Pivot $4,675 - $4,725 (bullish above)
• $4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• Pivotal Support $4,355 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support & 200-Day MA $4,100
• Next Support $3,880 to $4,000
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support

Gold is getting back to a more bullish momentum from seller exhaustion – currently contained by its 2H 50-period MA on the intraday, bulls will want to push above in order to materialize a more significant rebound.

Keep a close eye on the triangle formation for upward and downward breakout boundaries – When Markets reopen next week, traders can expect significant movement, hence, watch out for your size and orders!

Safe Trades and keep track of the conflict progress over the weekend!

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