Is a March rate cut from the ECB still possible? UK surveys eyed as the economy falls into recession.
16-02-2024 10:39 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6110, up 0.08%.
Orr pushes back against rate cut expectations
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has made inflation its top priority and the Bank’s steep rate-hiking cycle has brought inflation lower.
16-02-2024 08:02 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2578, down 0.17%.
UK retail sales rebound with 3.4% gain
UK retail sales were more than impressive, surging 3.4% m/m in January.
16-02-2024 05:18 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Japanese yen has improved on Thursday, despite a disappointing GDP report. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.12, down 0.31%.
15-02-2024 12:41 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US retail sales below expectations at -0.8% in January
November and December also revised lower
USDCAD falls after briefly breaching resistance
There was a big data drop from the US ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street today, with one report in particular getting people's attention.
The retail sales data for January were poor. Not only that, they were much poorer than already low expectations.
15-02-2024 10:32 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The markets await the Empire State Manufacturing Index this morning; the index is based on surveying a monthly sample of the State’s manufacturing executives and is handled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The index is considered a leading indicator; a reading above zero reflects expansion, and below zero reflects contraction.
15-02-2024 07:51 GMT
by Moheb Hanna
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6496, up 0.07%.
Australian job growth flatlines
Australia’s employment report was softer than expected, but the Australian dollar didn’t show much reaction.
15-02-2024 06:31 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK GDP -0.3% in Q4 and -0.1% in December
BoE not concerned about recession
GBPUSD momentum fading near February lows?
The UK fell into recession in the second half of last year after GDP figures for the fourth quarter showed a steeper contraction than expected.
While a recession was expected ahead of the release, the fourth quarter number was slightly worse despite December performing better than anticipated.
15-02-2024 04:58 GMT
by Craig Erlam
JPY weakness failed to materialize after Japan’s Q4 GDP came in way below expectations.
Fear of looming BoJ’s intervention to put a halt to recent JPY weakness after MoF’s vice finance minister Masato Kanda’s warnings yesterday on the recent rapid moves in the FX markets ex-post hotter than expected US CPI data release.
Short-term upside momentum of US dollar strength against JPY has started to ease.
Flash Q4 2023 GDP data for Japan has indicated that the Japanese economy slipped into a technic
15-02-2024 01:16 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
Aussie rebounds, employment data looms
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, up 0.54%.
14-02-2024 13:33 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US inflation data boosts the dollar
Retail sales eyed on Thursday for signs of strong demand
USDCAD may remain rangebound
The US dollar reached a two-month high against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday on the back of some stronger economic data.
The inflation figures from the US propelled the greenback higher as traders were forced to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
14-02-2024 09:00 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The British pound continues to lose ground on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2546, down 0.35%.
UK inflation holds steady at 4.0%
The January inflation report showed that inflation didn’t budge but was lower than expected.
14-02-2024 08:55 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK inflation unchanged in January
Markets expect BoE rate cut in Q2
GBPJPY pares gains after hitting 8.5 year high
UK inflation data this morning will have been a welcome surprise for the Bank of England but there's still a long way to go.
Unfavorable base effects were expected to lift headline and core CPI last month but in both cases, they stayed at the same level. A small win but a win nonetheless for the BoE.
It was already expected to fall back to target in the second quarter before rebo
14-02-2024 06:42 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US inflation report hits gold
Fewer Fed rate cuts priced into markets
A loss of major technical support
US inflation data finally took its toll on gold which, after holding strong above $2,000 this year, finally crumbled under the pressure of higher rates.
How much worse it gets for the yellow metal will ultimately depend on how bad the data gets but, under the circumstances, we're certainly back in a "good news is bad news" scenario ahead of the retail sales data.
13-02-2024 13:26 GMT
by Craig Erlam
US inflation falls less than expected
Fed rate cuts scaled back in markets
EURUSD falls and momentum builds
This is not the inflation report that the Federal Reserve wanted to see and markets have responded accordingly.
Inflation in January was hotter than expected across the board. The headline and core monthly readings printed at 0.3% while the annual readings came in at 3.1% and 3.9%, respectively.
While an improvement at the headline level, it's less so than markets were positioned for an
13-02-2024 12:45 GMT
by Craig Erlam
It has been a hectic day for the British pound, after key releases on both sides of the pond. In Tuesday’s North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2594, down 0.26%.
13-02-2024 12:33 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK wage growth slows to 5.8% (inc bonus) and 6.2% (exc bonus) in December
CPI eyed tomorrow with UK expected to be confirmed as in recession on Thursday
EURGBP sell-off accelerates in key support zone
The UK continues to make progress toward being able to cut interest rates but as has been the case throughout the last couple of years, the process is not straightforward.
The good news is that wage growth is slowing at a good pace after peaking last summer and near-term trends are very p
13-02-2024 09:20 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The New Zealand dollar has declined after New Zealand inflation expectations decelerated in the fourth quarter. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6114, down 0.25%.
13-02-2024 07:38 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
UK wage growth key to BoE sustainably hitting inflation target
GBPJPY struggling near recent highs
Divergence points to loss of momentum
The coming days offer several important data points for the UK that could help determine when the Bank of England starts cutting interest rates and, by extension, where the currency is headed in the coming months.
The jobs report on Tuesday is always widely followed but with the unemployment component less reliable than normal, it's the average earnings that
12-02-2024 15:36 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.12%.
Australia kicks off the week with consumer and business confidence data, both of which have been weak.
12-02-2024 11:40 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher