Forex: All News & Analysis

USD/JPY Technical: At risk of a minor bounce before bearish tone resumes

Medium-term uptrend of USD/JPY in place since 16 January 2023 at risk of breakdown. Steep decline from last Thursday, 6 July 2023 has reached oversold condition. Minor bounce cannot be ruled out at this juncture above 140.60 support. Watch the 142.50/142.80 intermediate resistance zone. This is a follow-up on our prior analysis “USD/JPY surged to a 7-month high, but fundamentals diverge” published on 23 June 2023. We have highlighted the risks of the overextended rally exhibited in the USD/JPY

10-07-2023 22:02 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD eyes UK employment report

UK jobs report expected to show strong employment and wage growth US nonfarm payrolls declined in June The British pound has drifted lower on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2827 in the European session, down 0.09%. UK employment data expected to remain strong The UK labour market remains resilient despite a cooling economy and high interest rates.

10-07-2023 11:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD slips as NFP falls, Canada adds jobs

US nonfarm payrolls decline Canada adds 60,000 jobs Bank of Canada expected to raise rates on Wednesday The Canadian dollar is trading quietly at the start of the week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3286, up 0.07%.

10-07-2023 09:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar slips after soft Chinese inflation data

AUD/USD slides 1% China's CPI and PPI slow in June The Australian dollar continues to show sharp volatility. AUD/USD is down 0.80% on Monday, trading at 0.6637.

10-07-2023 07:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

China equities bulls are still on the waiting list

Deflationary spiral risk has negated confidence in China equities. US dollar has continued to hold steady against the yuan despite a broad-based sell-off against other major currencies ex-post US non-farm payrolls. The key intermediate support to watch on the USD/CNH will be at 7.2160. Weak China inflation data offset positive China Big Tech news flow The dreaded fear of a deflationary spiral in China has reached “code red” where the latest consumer inflation rate for June has flattened to 0% y

10-07-2023 02:34 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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EUR/USD - Dollar strengthens after hawkish FOMC minutes

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam analyses EURUSD in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes.

07-07-2023 10:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Week Ahead - US inflation data the headline, BoC ponders another hike, possible RBNZ pause

This week is all about inflation. Annual inflation will tumble as energy prices drop and due to base effects, but many traders will pay close attention to the core readings.

07-07-2023 08:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro steady ahead of nonfarm payrolls, Lagarde speech

EUR/USD is unchanged in the European session, trading at 1.0893. Nonfarm payrolls expected to decline All eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to decline for June. However, this week's employment numbers have been mixed, and it will be interesting to see which direction the nonfarm payrolls release takes. The ADP employment report, which precedes the nonfarm payrolls release by a day or two, tends to get glossed over, as it is not considered a reliable precursor to nonfarm

07-07-2023 06:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen jumps on wage growth, nonfarm payrolls next

Japanese wage growth rises, household spending declines US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall USD/JPY is sharply lower The Japanese yen has climbed sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.02, down 0.72%.

07-07-2023 06:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar on a roll ahead of US, Canada job reports

US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop, but massive ADP jobs report is making investors nervous Canada's labour market is expected to rebound with a 20,000 gain The Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378. It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports. Will nonfarm payroll

07-07-2023 04:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

No summer lull for global equities

Bullish breakout seen in US Treasury 10-year yield above 3.90%, next resistance at 4.46%. Long-duration assets (fixed income & growth stocks) sold off and underperformed in the past two days. Record low level of implied correlation among S&P 500 stocks may lead to a spike in VIX. Asian stocks underperformed reinforced by a weak yuan despite subtle interventions by PBoC. Déjà vu, it’s all about government bond yields again In the past two days, we have seen several significant movements in the g

07-07-2023 02:30 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD rises on strong US jobs and services data

ADP employment surprises with a huge gain of 497,000 On Friday, US releases nonfarm payrolls and Canada publishes the employment report Nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall to 225,000, Canada projected to add 20,000 jobs The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, down 0.58%.

06-07-2023 11:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Fed hawks in control after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services reading

ADP shows 497,000 jobs created in June, biggest gains in over a year ISM Services Index makes 4-month high ISM Prices paid declined from 56.2 to 54.1, lowest since March 2020 US stocks extend losses after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services report raised the odds the Fed might have to do deliver more rate hikes beyond the July FOMC meeting. The dollar pared losses as Fed rate hike odds rose on expectations the NFP report will deliver its 15th straight beat.

06-07-2023 10:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie pares gains as US ADP jobs report sparkles

Australia posts strong trade surplus US ADP employment surprises with massive gain US unemployment claims and ISM Services PMI will be released later on Thursday Thursday has been a busy day for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar rose after a strong Australian trade balance report but has reversed directions following a sparking US ADP employment release.

06-07-2023 09:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY gains ground, Fed minutes show policy divisions

FOMC minutes highlight policy divisions USD/JPY falls sharply Japan releases Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings on Friday The Japanese yen is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.82, down 0.57%. Fed minutes point to disagreement over rate path The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening rates in order to curb inflation but took a pause in June after ten consecutive hikes.

06-07-2023 07:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Soft open for US stocks ahead of key labor/service data

China President Xi tells military to firmly safeguard sovereignty and to strengthen military drills Tesla and China's top car manufacturers pledge to avoid 'abnormal pricing' Fed rate hike expectations for the July 26th meeting stand at 85.3%, up from 81.1% at the end of last week. Us stocks are poised for a soft open as global recession fears sink risk appetite ahead of a few key labor and service economic reports. The Fed Minutes did no favors for sentiment as officials favor a July rate inc

06-07-2023 07:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Fed Minutes send bond yields higher

The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the hawks will still want to deliver more tightening. Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight throughout the rest of the year. If inflation remains persistent, that could be a gamechanger for inflation expectations. Wall Street was getting comfortable with higher for a little bit longer, but they are not ready to price in more than a half-point in rate hikes. In order to conquer inflation the Fe

05-07-2023 17:39 GMT by Edward Moya

Technicals and Triggers - USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD

The first half of the year was rather choppy for the US dollar as massive bets of weakness were scaled down. Many on Wall Street expected the dollar to weaken as most of the other major currencies were about to deliver significantly more tightening. Regional growth rotations on an improving outlook from a roaring Chinese economy were also supposed to support the case for strengthening commodity demand. The dollar might be positioned for a little more short-term strength here as the odds for m

05-07-2023 17:01 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Rough Waters Ahead in H2

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to analyze the RBA rate decision, what the latest factory data says about the economy, and what is driving both oil and gold prices.

05-07-2023 15:04 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie falls as China PMI weakens, FOMC minutes loom

AUD/USD slips after a four-day rally China's Services PMI eases in June Australia's retail sales jump 0.7% in May FOMC minutes will be released later on Wednesday The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday, after a four-day rally that saw the Aussie climb 100 pips. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6663, down 0.42%. China's Services PMI eases but indicates expansion China is Australia's largest trading partner, making the Aussie sensitive to

05-07-2023 11:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Forex: all news & analysis