Forex: All News & Analysis

JPY bearish positioning is getting overstretched

Better than expected US non-farm payrolls for April have failed to ignite US dollar bulls. Two outliers; the safe haven currencies, CHF and JPY underperformed against the US dollar due to the resurgence of risk-on behaviour in the US stock market. JPY future’s bearish positioning has highlighted a risk of a short-term revival of JPY’s strength. Last Friday, the better-than-expected US official non-farm payrolls data (labour market) for April failed to trigger a meaningful rally in the US dollar

08-05-2023 01:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Labor Market remains resilient (for both the US and Canada)

Hot US NFP report shows 253,000 jobs created in April, prior months massively revised down Robust Canadian employment data doubles forecast Banking worries ease as Regional bank stocks rebound US stocks extended gains after the US nonfarm payroll report showed the labor market remains resilient. Stocks were off to a good start after decent results from Apple and as the regional banks rebounded after getting a nice upgrade from JPMorgan and as some banks/brokerages continue to show deposits are

05-05-2023 12:28 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Another hot US jobs report, ECB slows rate hikes, BoE next week

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US jobs report, the ECB rate hike, and the week ahead.

05-05-2023 12:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

Week Ahead - US CPI data eyed while BoE seeks to get inflation back below 10%

US The labor market is showing signs of resilience, but now the focus shifts back to inflation, with focus on the banking space. The banking system doesn't look ‘sound and resilient’ as more banks come under stress. US regulators will eventually be forced to act as the banking crisis worsens and that could mean the further unwinding of more banks. The April inflation report is expected to show that the disinflation process is starting to lose momentum.

05-05-2023 11:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CHF - Swiss franc sinks on SNB's Jordan, nonfarm payrolls

SNB's Jordan says cannot exclude further hikes US nonfarm payrolls rise unexpectedly USD/CHF soars by 100 points The Swiss franc has taken riders on a roller-coaster ride this week. On Wednesday, USD/CHF plunged 1% but it has recovered all of these losses on Friday, courtesy of Swiss National Bank President Jordan and a strong nonfarm payrolls release. SNB's Jordan says rate hike on the table.

05-05-2023 09:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD -Euro shrugs off weak eurozone, German data

Eurozone, German data disappoint ECB raises rates by 25 bp US nonfarm payrolls expected to decline EUR/USD is drifting on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1028, up 0.13% on the day. Today's eurozone and German data were a disappointment.

05-05-2023 07:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD extends slide ahead of job reports

Canada's employment change expected to slow US nonfarm payrolls projected to fall to 179,000 Canadian dollar rallies for third straight day The Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st. Canadian employment change expected to ease The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today.

05-05-2023 05:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CNH: Animal spirits are in control of China’s equities

China equities & its proxies are resilient against a lacklustre macro environment. Sentiment-driven animal spirits are playing a key role in the recent rebound of China equities. USD/CNH (part of the sentiment-driven factor) has flashed exhaustion conditions after failing to break above the key 200-day moving average. The past four days of performances seen in the China stock market and its proxies seem to be more driven by animal spirits rather than fundamentals. Let’s discuss a bit about th

05-05-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar edges higher as Ivey PMI expansion continues

Canada's Ivey PMI expands for fourth month in a row Fed raises rates, markets expect a cut in September US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall below 200K In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3585, down 0.23% on the day. Canada's Ivey PMI expands for 4th straight month Canada's Ivey PMI, a key indicator of business activity, continued to show expansion, with readings above 50.0 for a fourth successive month. The PMI eased from 58.2 to 56.8 in April but beat the consensus of 54.

04-05-2023 11:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CHF - Swiss franc hits 16-week high on dovish Fed

Swiss inflation expected to rise to 0.5% Swiss franc's appreciation raises concerns at SNB Fed raises rates by 25 bp USD/CHF is trading at 0.8872 today, up 0.32%. The pair is recovering after the Swiss franc surged by 1% a day earlier. USD/CHF falls close to 0.88 line The Swiss franc pummelled the US dollar on Wednesday and USD/CHF fell as low as 0.8820 today, its lowest level since January 21st.

04-05-2023 09:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro craters after the ECB signaled they are almost done tightening

ECB will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive ECB expects to discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July ECB slows rate hiking pace to 25bps (as expected), bringing key rate to 3.75% The ECB kept the door open for more hikes, but it looks like they are positioning for the June or July meeting to take rates to a restrictive level.

04-05-2023 08:40 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD edges lower, ECB expected to raise rates

ECB expected to raise rates by 25 bp Federal Reserve hikes rates by 25 bp Powell signals a pause in June EUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today. ECB expected to hike, but by how much? All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today's meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points?

04-05-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Asian stock markets rejoiced post-FOMC

US stock indices spooked by Fed Chair Powell’s “hawkish” comments. USD sold off while safe haven currencies, JPY & CHF in demand. Asian stock market outperformed while Hong Kong indices rebounded from the key 200-day moving average. No surprise from the US central bank, Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome yesterday where the Fed hiked its policy Fed funds rate by 25 basis points as expected, its 10th hike in this current tightening cycle to a target range of 5% to 5.25%. Most importantly,

04-05-2023 02:01 GMT by Kelvin Wong

The Fed is done hiking rates, dollar bears in control, Commodities mixed

Pricing of swaps were volatile during the FOMC decision, settling at a 6.3% for a quarter-point hike at the June 14th meeting Dollar weaker across the board as the yen surges 1.1% Oil crushed as supply and demand indicators remain bearish The Fed’s tenth straight rate hike will likely be the last one in this cycle. The Fed is concerned that tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity and hiring, while helping maintain disinflation trends. Credit tightening is about to cripple th

03-05-2023 15:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - US ISM Services and ADP seal the deal for the Fed's last hike

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and our new co-host Trader Nick. They discuss the ISM Services report, an impressive private payrolls report, Oil's bearish drivers, and cryptos.

03-05-2023 14:50 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY - Yen surges ahead of Fed rate decision

Fed likely to raise rates by 25 bp Bank turmoil continues as two US regional banks see shares plunge USD/JPY has declined by 1% The Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility, which started on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 135.14, down 1.04% on the day. Fed expected to deliver final rate hike The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later today, and the markets are confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the

03-05-2023 11:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar hits 2-week high, Fed poised to hike

New Zealand's job numbers beat estimates Fed widely expected to deliver 25-bp hike NZD/USD extends gains NZD/USD has extended its gains and is trading at 0.6219, up 0.18%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a high of 0.6249, its highest level since April 19. New Zealand employment data shines New Zealand's labour market hasn't missed a step, despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's aggressive tightening campaign.

03-05-2023 08:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar pares back gains, RBA's Lowe defends rate hike

RBA Governor Lowe defends rate hike Fed expected to hit rate trigger The Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday, with AUD/USD trading at 0.6658. RBA's Lowe says rate hike was needed The RBA decision to raise rates by 25 basis points caught the markets off guard, as expectations were high that the central bank would pause rates for a second straight month. The move has raised eyebrows, as just one month ago, the RBA took a pause, saying it needed to monitor the effects of 10 consec

03-05-2023 06:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand Dollar higher ahead of employment data

New Zealand to release employment for Q4 NZD/USD hits 2-week high Fed expected to raise rates NZD/USD is considerably higher on Tuesday, trading at 0.6203, up 0.57%. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.6218, its highest level since April 19th. New Zealand job numbers expected to remain strong New Zealand's labour market has remained robust, despite relentless tightening from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has raised rates to 5.25%.

02-05-2023 10:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD shrugs as Eurozone inflation steady

Eurozone inflation almost unchanged German retail sales fall by 2.5% Markets upwardly revise odds of Fed hike to 96% EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0966, down 0.09%. German retail sales fall by 2.5% The German consumer continues to hold tight to the purse strings, as March retail sales declined by 2.4%, compared to a consensus of 0.4% and -1.3% in February. This marked the fourth decline in five months.

02-05-2023 07:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Forex: all news & analysis