Forex: All News & Analysis

Dollar wavers as the Fed's two-day policy begins

Modest dollar weakness is emerging as the Fed begins their two-day policy meeting; the euro is back above the 1.07 level, while the loonie is advancing below the 200-day SMA, and as the British pound rises above the 1.24 level. Positioning into the FOMC meeting is seeing rate options traders increase hedges, which means some traders are worried that the expected mid-year pivot could be in jeopardy. FOMC Inflation has come down a lot, but the Fed’s inflation isn’t quite over yet. The market

19-09-2023 08:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve decision

Fed decision and forecasts on Wednesday could be very significant Is the Fed ready to replicate the ECB's explicitly dovish statement? Gold testing key resistance zone ahead of the meeting Gold is trading a little flat on Tuesday, perhaps showing a little caution ahead of the Fed meeting after a decent recovery in recent days. The yellow metal slipped back toward $1,900 amid resilient economic figures from the US that fed into fears of interest rates staying high for longer

19-09-2023 08:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Edges higher even as eurozone inflation is revised slightly lower

Headline HICP inflation falls to 5.2% (5.3% expected) while core HICP remains at 5.3% Further declines expected over the remainder of the year Divergence warns of potential exhaustion in the sell-off Eurozone headline inflation was slightly lower than initially reported in August while core was unrevised and is now modestly higher. Both are expected to fall going into next year and today's revisions are unlikely to alter the view of the ECB which has already decided that no more rate hikes will

19-09-2023 07:42 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD falls to one-month low

Canada's CPI expected to decline The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3441, down 0.33%.

19-09-2023 07:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar edges higher after RBA minutes

RBA minutes show that central bank considered rate hike China to announce loan prime rate decision on Wednesday The Australian dollar continues to trade quietly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6456, up 0.30%. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of this month's meeting earlier today.

19-09-2023 06:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Global stock markets are off to a shaky start ahead of the Fed's FOMC and "dot plot"

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss a pivotal week of major central banks' monetary policy decisions from the US Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Challenging moments for several central bankers as they tried to combat elevated inflation from reemerging due to rapidly rising oil prices in the past two months albeit a potentially weaker demand environment in 2024 due to lag effects from higher interest rates in terms of levels and the speed of prior hikes.

19-09-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

The Impact of the UAW Strike on the FX Market

UAW President Fain on latest offer - “It’s definitely a no-go.” A prolonged UAW strike could disrupt the US growth exceptionalism trade The impact of the strike is not as disruptive but it could lead to a lengthier period of production disruption The three Detroit automakers and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union appear to be far from ending the strike that has now entered its fourth day. It is clear that American car manufacturers, Ford (F), GM (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) will be having high

18-09-2023 16:05 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD: Loonie rallies to best levels in a month as $100 crude risks grow

Bloomberg Survey: Chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 45% Canadian swaps pricing in 27.6% chance of a rate hike at October 25th meeting Oil rally stalls as Saudis deliver cautious outlook. FX traders were not expecting significant moves to start this trading week, which is filled with several key rate decisions. One of the standout trades for September has been the rally with oil prices. Throughout large parts of the pandemic, oil exporting countries haven’t seen the str

18-09-2023 14:27 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar rises despite soft Services PMI

New Zealand Services PMI declines US manufacturing data climbs, consumer sentiment falls The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5918 in the North American session, up 0.34%. New Zealand's Services PMI declines New Zealand's Services PMI eased to 47.1 in August, down from 47.8 in July.

18-09-2023 13:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD eyes RBA minutes

The Australian dollar continues to drift as we start the new trading week. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6438, up 0.11%. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its minutes of this month's meeting on Tuesday.

18-09-2023 06:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/JPY Technical: Bulls may have reached a key bearish reversal zone

The 9-month rally seen in the EUR/JPY has reached a key major resistance zone of 158.55/159.80. Several technical elements have started to hint at signs of bullish exhaustion where the next potential movement may be a multi-day to multi-week bearish mean reversion/counter-trend within a major uptrend phase. The short-term resistance and support will be at 158.55 and 155.90 respectively. Since the start of the year, the EUR/JPY has rallied by 16.30% (2,239 pips) from its 2 January 2023 low of 13

18-09-2023 02:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD: Loonie rides oil's bullish wave

US dollar weakness emerges on as inflation expectations fall to lowest levels in over two year; November Fed rate hike odds remain a coin flip Oil rallies for a third straight week on tightness concerns US oil rig count rises by 2 to 515 The one-way move with oil prices has finally started to provide some underlying support for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency however is starting to show some signs of exhaustion as short-term risks to the outlook grow. The short-term crude demand ou

15-09-2023 13:44 GMT by Edward Moya

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Video - EUR/USD tumbles after a surprise dovish ECB rate hike

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the impact of the ECB interest rate decision and press conference on EURUSD.

15-09-2023 13:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

Week Ahead - Fed, BoE, BoJ, SNB, SARB, CBRT and more to look forward to

Federal Reserve could be cautious as data continues to show economic resilience BoE may raise rates for the last time in this cycle BoJ eyed for more clues on interest rates after recent hints

15-09-2023 12:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CHF: Franc drops despite dollar's first weekly decline since mid-July

FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to maintain benchmark lending rate target at 5.25% to 5.5%, signaling one last rate increase SNB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00% Treasury yield curve shifts higher; 10-year yield rises 4.2bps to 4.328% The Swiss franc is not attracting any safe-haven flows as China shows more signs of stabilizing and with another round of US data/reports that support the soft landing narrative. USD/CHF Daily Chart The US dollar rally is approaching a conf

15-09-2023 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD extends gains on strong Chinese data

Chinese industrial production, retail sales accelerate AUD/USD posts slight gains US to release manufacturing, consumer confidence data on Friday The Australian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6452, up 0.18%.

15-09-2023 06:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro takes a tumble after ECB's hike

ECB delivers 'dovish hike' EUR/USD sinks 0.80% on Thursday US to release manufacturing and consumer confidence reports on Friday The euro has steadied on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0665, up 0.20%. Euro slides on ECB's dovish hike The European Central Bank's rate decision went right down to the wire on Wednesday.

15-09-2023 05:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A resilient Chinese yuan is supporting Hong Kong equities and antipodean currencies

Yesterday’s significant US dollar up moves against the EUR, GBP, and CHF have not spread to the Chinese yuan and antipodean currencies. The choice of China's central bank, PBoC latest monetary policy easing measure via a cut on the required reserves ratio and upbeat retail sales and industrial production have led to a short-term “K-shaped performance” seen in the FX market. Short-term bullish momentum elements are sighted in AUD/USD and NZD/USD supported by a weakening USD/CNH. Despite the Euro

15-09-2023 04:05 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD: Pound drops as eurozone stagflation risks could threaten UK economy

Markets leaning towards possibly one last BOE rate hike (implied rate peak of 5.527% at Feb 1st 2024 meeting) UK house prices tumble to lowest levels since 2009 Doji pattern possibly invalidated as bearish momentum remains The British pound is declining as expectations grow that for the BOE to deliver one last hike as the consumer is quickly weakening. Stagflation risks are here as housing market concerns worsen and are now accompanied with a cautious consumer who is battling rising inflation

14-09-2023 13:39 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/GBP - ECB delivers dovish final rate hike of the tightening cycle

ECB raises rates another 25 basis points but signals it may be the last New forecasts show stubborn inflation but weak growth Close above 55/89-day SMA band suggests breakout still valid The ECB raised interest rates again today, probably for the last time in the tightening cycle although it did leave itself some flexibility on that front. This certainly falls into the dovish hike category, with the ECB acknowledging inflation remains too high but also that growth is suffering.

14-09-2023 13:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

Forex: all news & analysis