Forex: All News & Analysis

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Podcast - Geopolitical angst likely to keep market volatility elevated in the coming weeks

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss the recent bond market volatility, the start of earnings season, surging inflation expectations, and the impact the war in Israel is having on commodities.

13-10-2023 16:35 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - US retail sales and earnings, major Chinese data, and UK inflation and employment readings

This week Wall Street will learn how quickly the US consumer is weakening and if the manufacturing part of the economy is close to entering recovery mode. The US retail sales report for September is expected to show monthly sales increased 0.3%, down from the 0.6% in the previous month.

13-10-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

Global growth concerns send Commodity Currencies lower despite surge in oil and prices

Dollar remains strong on safe-haven flows spurred by the Israel-Hamas war Gold volatility surges the most since March Oil prices surge on disruption concerns The Canadian currency and Australian are both weaker against the greenback as fears of rising global market turmoil grow as the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates. Oftentimes a surge in commodity prices provide a boost to key countries that deal with surging commodities, but that isn't happening here. Oil Crude prices are surging as the oi

13-10-2023 14:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Mideast tensions send the Swiss franc, oil and gold sharply higher

Univ of Mich: Short- and longer-run inflation expectations surge (1-year rises to 3.8% and 5-10 year rise to 3.0%) Consumer sentiment plunges from 68.1 to 63.0, worst slide since June 2022 Bank stocks initial rally faded It has been a very busy Friday on Wall Street. Stocks traded mostly lower as investors digested an impressive start to earnings, surging inflation expectations and rising tensions with the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

13-10-2023 14:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie stabilizes after sliding on US inflation

China inflation dips to 0.0% Australian dollar sinks after US inflation and employment data The Australian dollar is unchanged on Friday, trading at 0.6312. The Aussie was roughed up by the US dollar a day earlier and plummeted 1.56%, its largest one-day decline since August. The sharp downswing was driven by US inflation and unemployment reports on Thursday.

13-10-2023 07:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY heads closer to 150 after US inflation report

The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.63, down 0.12%. The US inflation report for September was unchanged at 3.7% y/y, but this was higher than the market estimate of 3.6% y/y and the market reaction sent the US dollar higher against all the major currencies.

13-10-2023 06:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar extends losses after plunge

US headline CPI higher than expected US jobless claims remain low New Zealand Manufacturing Index declines The New Zealand dollar is lower on Friday after a massive plunge a day earlier. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5911, down 0.25%. The US inflation report was stronger than expected, and the US dollar responded with sharp gains against the major currencies.

13-10-2023 05:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: Surging Treasury yields bring back the pressure onto Japanese officials

Dollar holds onto gains as projected rate hike bets hold firm Treasury 30-year auction sees soft demand as concerns grow over rising deficits Yen's October rally nearly completely erased as US growth exceptionalism remains in place The BOJ must be frustrated that the yen's rally at the start of the month has quickly evaporated. Pressure is growing for the Japanese officials to act otherwise, the yen could see another significant devaluation. Last night, Bank of Japan board member Noguchi note

12-10-2023 14:24 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD sinks after US CPI report, NZ Mfg. Index next

US CPI unchanged, core CPI declines NZD/USD falls 1.2% New Zealand to release Mfg. Index on Friday The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Thursday.

12-10-2023 12:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD: Hot US CPI and Claims data send Treasury yields and the dollar higher

Treasury curve rises across the board; 2-year rises 9.7bps to 5.079%, 5-year higher by 10.3bps to 4.680%, the 10-year increases by 10.3bps 4.662%, and the 30-year jumped 10.5bps to 4.799% Sticky inflation and steady claims send USD higher against all its major trading partners; yen only 20+ pips away from 150 Fed fund futures are not ready to abandon the possibility of one more interest rate hike The dollar is rallying as US stocks are lower after hot inflation and claims data kept the risk of

12-10-2023 11:43 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar drifting ahead of US inflation report

US CPI expected to ease US PPI surprised to the upside The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6410 in the European session, down 0.05%. All eyes are on US consumer inflation, which will be released later today.

12-10-2023 06:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/JPY Technical – Recent two weeks of rebound at risk of bearish reversal

+297 pips of rebound seen in AUD/JPY from 3 October 2023 low of 93.06 has reached a key short-term resistance zone of 95.70/96.00. The up move from 10 October to 12 October 2023 has been accompanied by a weakening of upside momentum as indicated by the hourly RSI. Watch the near-term support at 95.30 (20-day moving average) as a potential downside trigger level. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Bearish reaction from key long-term range resistance in place since Oct 2007” publi

12-10-2023 06:36 GMT by Kelvin Wong

British pound shrugs as UK economy rebounds

UK GDP bounces back with 0.2% gain FOMC minutes: Restrictive policy to continue until inflation falls to target The British pound continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2302, down 0.08%. UK's GDP rises 0.2% The UK economy grew by 0.2% in August, rebounding from a revised 0.6% decline in July.

12-10-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dollar mostly unfazed post FOMC Minutes

Minutes: Fed sees 'restrictive' policy staying in place until inflation eases 10-year Treasury yield resumes slide post minutes, down 5.4bps to 4.599% Inflation expected to moderate given energy price trends in September; while core proves to be sticky These Fed Minutes seem to be particularly old given everything we've seen with rates, a new war, and a gloomier outlook for the economy. The Minutes noted that policy should remain restrictive for some time until the Committee is confident that

11-10-2023 14:45 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD: Tentatively recaptures 1.2300 as dollar drops for a sixth day as yields continue to tumble

US 10-year Treasury yield falls 6.6bps to 4.587% Fed's Bowman and Waller become less hawkish FOMC minutes to be released at 2pm EST The US dollar pared losses after a hot PPI report but still settled lower as Wall Street focused on the latest Fed speak that had two hawks dial down dial the immediate need for further tightening. The high-beta currencies might struggle for further gains until Wall Street sees tomorrow’s CPI report, which could come in hot given producer prices were supported on

11-10-2023 12:30 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar's rally fizzles

Australian inflation expectations projection to decelerate The Australian dollar has edged lower on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6419, down 0.20%.

11-10-2023 08:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD drifting ahead of UK GDP

UK growth expected to rebound in August Fed members more dovish due to increase in US yields The British pound is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2297, up 0.10%. The UK economy has been struggling and GDP declined by 0.5% m/m in July.

11-10-2023 06:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro calm as German inflation falls, FOMC eyed

German inflation confirmed at 4.5% Fed members say spike in Treasuries could push inflation lower The euro continues to have an uneventful week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0613, up 0.08%. German inflation falls to 4.5% German inflation was confirmed at 4.5% y/y in September, sharply lower than the August reading of 6.1%.

11-10-2023 05:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD: Loonie rally stalls ahead of key support; Commodities Diverge

Oil rally cools and prices settle below $86 a barrel US diesel export to Europe approach highest levels since 2019 Wall Street awaits key CPI report and bank earnings The Canadian dollar continues to rally against the US dollar as global bond prices slide and oil prices soften after the surge from the Israel-Hamas war. The North American growth exceptionalism story has seen both the US and Canadian excel. Both countries posted robust payrolls data but the outlook for further tightening by the

10-10-2023 16:03 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Dollar softens as Treasury yields slide

Dollar falls four out of five days to euro as 10-year Treasury drops 14.8bps to 4.655% Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 rose from 4.9% to 5.1% Treasury 3-year auction sees lowest bit-to-cover since February; 2.50 v 2.75 prior Fed speak remains dovish; Waller refrains from commenting on near-term interest rate outlook The dollar is declining and US stocks are rallying after a steady dose of dovish Fed speak has traders convinced rate hikes are over. Also providing a boost to sentiment is the r

10-10-2023 15:22 GMT by Edward Moya

Forex: all news & analysis