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An underwhelming start
It's been an underwhelming start to the week in financial markets with the eternal optimism of investors clashing with the reality of Chinese economic data. There's a ​ bizarre willingness to turn a blind eye to the economic reality at the moment as long as the Fed doesn't raise rates too fast. That doesn't feel particularly sustainable but as we've seen so often before, it can last much longer than you may expect. Rate cut does little to ease Chinese fears The economic data from China overnight
by Craig Erlam
The run goes on
It's been another very good week for equity markets, extending the run to four weeks in many cases as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook. This week has been all about the inflation data and, frankly, it could be the dominant force in the markets now right up until the Jackson Hole symposium. The fact that inflation not only decelerated in the US but at a faster pace than the consensus forecasts was a double win and risk assets are feeling the benefit. Of course, it doesn
by Craig Erlam
Traders reassess Fed pivot optimism, First PPI decline since early in the pandemic, Bitcoin above $24K
​Stocks were unable to hold onto robust gains following back-to-back reports that suggest inflation has peaked. ​ After a little pushback from the Fed, Wall Street is starting to second guess how soon the Fed will be in a position to pivot. ​ Fed rate hike expectations will bounce between a half-point and 75 basis-points ahead of the September policy meeting, but it is way too early to continue to expect the next round of inflation readings to keep that declining pace. PPI posts decline Producer
by Edward Moya
Welcome relief
Investors are certainly in a more upbeat mood as the relief from the US inflation data ripples through the markets. Positive surprises have been hard to come by on the inflation front this year and yesterday's report was very much welcomed with open arms. While we shouldn't get too carried away by the data, with headline inflation still running at 8.5% and core 5.9%, it's certainly a start and one we've waited a long time for. Fed policymakers remain keen to stress that the tightening cycle is f
by Craig Erlam
Nerves ahead of US inflation
We're seeing plenty of apprehension ahead of the US inflation report on Wednesday, with Asia in the red and Europe following suit. It's impossible to get away from the fact that the inflation report has held the markets back this week. There's clearly a desperate desire to be more optimistic about the outlook; that's evident from the scale of the recovery already seen in equity markets despite there being seemingly little to celebrate. But the jobs report on Friday following on from the Fed comm
by Craig Erlam
Lacking direction
Equity markets are lacking any real direction in Asia and that appears to be carrying into the European session as well. Europe is seeing minor losses on the open, offsetting some of the small gains in choppy trade at the start of the week. This follows a similarly choppy session in the US on Monday as the Dow flirted with exiting correction territory and the Nasdaq bear market territory. We may have reached a point in which investors need to decide whether they truly buy into the recovery/no re
by Craig Erlam
Cautious post-jobs report
A relatively slow start to the week as investors continue to digest Friday's jobs report and what it means for financial markets just as some optimism was returning. The report itself was strong almost across the board, with participation being the only outlier, but Fed officials will not have been quite so enthused which makes it a tough one for investors to get too excited about. On the one hand, it strengthens the argument that the economy is not really experiencing a recession as the labour
by Craig Erlam
NFP React: What economic slowdown? Jobs Shocker supports Fed 75bp argument for September, Stocks drop, Oil pares weekly losses, Gold rally ends, Bitcoin equity correlation ends
The July nonfarm payroll report delivered a juicy plot twist in the Wall Street’s Fed pivot playbook.  Stubbornly high inflation and a global economic slowdown was expected to drag down the US economy, but after today’s jobs report that does not seem to be the case. Fed officials were already pushing back on the idea of a Fed pivot and now it seems they will be debating whether they need to be even more aggressive to tackle inflation given how strong the labor market is performing.  US stocks pl
by Edward Moya
The Goldilocks report
There's no such thing as a quiet week in the markets these days and this week has undoubtedly been no different. The jobs report was always expected to be the highlight but the Bank of England gave it a good run for its money on Thursday, hiking by the most in 27 years while putting out some pretty dire economic forecasts. It would appear we have very little to look forward to for the next couple of years here in the UK. While I believe other central banks are slowly gravitating toward the econo
by Craig Erlam
Stocks trade mix, BOE fearful of long recession, continuing claims rise, bitcoin stuck
Stocks continue to ignore the deepest yield curve inversion since the early 2000s. ​ The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 13% from the June lows as many on Wall Street anticipate that the Fed will stop quantitative tightening next year and begin cutting interest rates. If the next couple of inflation and nonfarm payroll reports support the Fed pivot argument, we might stop hearing these bear market calls. ​ ​ Equities might struggle to keep the rally going as investors continue to see economic
by Edward Moya
BoE decision eyed as Fed cools reversal speculation
We're seeing a little more positivity in the markets after another lively week and there's still plenty to come as we get closer to the weekend. Fed officials have been out in force again; this time with a focus on market expectations of a swift reversal from rate hikes to cuts early next year. Both Mary Daly and Neel Kashkari were very clear that it's unreasonable to expect such a policy u-turn given the inflation environment, with Kashkari even saying he's not sure what markets are looking at
by Craig Erlam
Stocks bolstered by earnings and data, ISM impresses, Meme stock mania on steroids, Bitcoin nears top of range
US stocks rallied after a steady dose of impressive earnings and economic data. ​ The economy doesn't look bad at all after strong earnings from Moderna, Gilead Science, CVS, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, and SoFi. The economic data broadly came in higher than expected as the service part of the economy seems to be stabilizing and price pressures are improving.
by Edward Moya
Bouncing back despite Fed warnings
Stock markets are a little higher after turning lower on Tuesday amid nerves over Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit. This week was already shaping up to be another rollercoaster ride and Pelosi's trip just added another layer of event risk for the markets. There will be hope following the initial response from Beijing that any escalation won't be too severe, although relations between the world's largest economies are clearly hugely strained and deteriorating. Compounding the moves in the markets yest
by Craig Erlam
US Close - Rollercoaster stock market after Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, Fed nowhere near done hiking, JOLTS miss, Oil rises, Gold lower on strong dollar, Bitcoin steadies
US stocks went on a rollercoaster ride as traders grew nervous over China’s retaliation over House Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, a reminder from Fed’s Daly that their interest rate hiking cycle is nowhere near done, and further signs the labor market is cooling but still remains tight enough for the Fed to deliver a couple more rate hikes. China’s response to Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan could have an impact on supply chains and demand, which could keep the inflationary pressures going strong.
by Edward Moya
Nerves amid China warnings
We're seeing more risk aversion on Tuesday as Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan generates numerous unsettling headlines at a time of strained ties between the US and China. US House Speaker Pelosi's proposed visit has been met with numerous threats from Beijing including an unspecified military response. They have continued this morning, hours ahead of the apparent arrival which is clearly making investors very nervous. Stock markets throughout most of Asia are in the red, with those in China, Hong
by Craig Erlam
A mixed start to the week
A mixed start to the week in Asia where Chinese PMIs dampened the mood as the reopening boost to activity quickly faded. The country was already facing an uphill challenge, to put it mildly, with regards to its growth target this year and the fact that manufacturing activity is slowing again doesn't bode well. While the non-manufacturing survey is much healthier, it also experienced a deceleration last month which further suggests the economy is struggling to get back to full strength. One posit
by Craig Erlam
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