Cryptos: All News & Analysis

Mid-Market Update: Bank rebound fuels risk rally, Disinflation trends are not back, Too early for rate cut and hold calls, Oil struggles, Gold softens, Crypto rally

Banking contagion risks are evaporating and Wall Street is ready to pile back into risky assets. US stocks are surging as regional bank stocks bounce back and after the eight straight deceleration with the annual inflation pace supports the case for some that the Fed’s tightening work is almost done. CPI Today’s inflation data still supports the case for another quarter-point rate hike by the Fed. Wall Street seems to be focusing on both the strong rise with shelter prices as that made up 70

14-03-2023 13:28 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close: Regional Banks crushed, Chaotic Stock session as Fed Regulators intervened, Oil pummeled, Gold surges, Bitcoin posts best rally since FTX turmoil

US stocks had a chaotic day as bank stocks crumbled and interest rate sensitive sectors rallied as Treasury yields tumbled. Over the weekend, Federal regulators rushed in to squash a growing liquidity crisis.

13-03-2023 15:04 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close: A cooling wage/hot payroll report, Banking System Fears, Rate Hike bets slashed, SVB fails, Oil rebounds, Gold shines bright, Crypto breaks below $20k

US stocks settled lower in a volatile session as traders digested a cooling wage/ robust job growth report and SVB contagion risks. This was supposed to be an easy Friday with one massive jobs report, but SVB, a large bank with exposure across a range of sectors failed and triggered distress for several other smaller banks. At the end of the day, traders are seeing this cooling/hot payroll report as confirmation that Fed policy is restrictive and that the their tightening work is almost done.

10-03-2023 13:44 GMT by Edward Moya

Fear gripping the markets

Stock markets are deep in negative territory on Friday, a day that will not be as dominated by the US jobs report as expected. Financial stocks are being hit particularly hard this morning on the back of reports of SVB Capital attempting to sell stock in order to shield itself amid large losses and withdrawals. This comes shortly after the collapse of Silvergate Capital and as investors are already concerned about the ramifications of the Fed's aggressive tightening cycle. Ultimately, what we're

10-03-2023 07:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Open: Stocks turn positive after Jobless Claims rise, Biden’s Budget DOA, Yen strength, Oil rebounds, Gold stabilizes, Crypto pain post Silvergate liquidation

US stocks erased losses after some softening labor data helped cool down this week’s surging Fed rate hike bets. Wall Street is hoping we are about to see a quicker cooling of the labor market, but we probably won't see major positioning until after Friday's NFP report. Fed Chair Powell seems to have signaled they will accelerate the tightening pace to a half-point rate rise if we get both a hot NFP and inflation reports.

09-03-2023 09:26 GMT by Edward Moya

Cautious ahead of jobs report

It would appear investors are taking a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow's jobs report, a little spooked by Powell's comments in Congress and fearful of being caught on the wrong side of another hot jobs report. That's clearly the danger at this point, that we get another hot report that confirms January was no blip and instead indicative of a labour market that not only isn't cooling but perhaps getting hotter. The trend pre-January across many indicators pointed to a cooling in the economy and

09-03-2023 08:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Mid-Market Update: Powell Part Deux, Labor Market still looks hot after ADP & JOLTS, Stocks struggle, Oil remains heavy, Gold wavers, Bitcoin softens

US stocks struggled to find direction after another round of labor data suggests this market will remain tight and on Fed Chair Powell’s second day of testimony on Capitol Hill. Powell did not deliver any surprises, repeating that the Fed may need to speed up the pace of its interest rate increases if necessary.

08-03-2023 13:43 GMT by Edward Moya

A big blow

Stock markets are steadying ahead of Powell's second appearance of the week on Wednesday, after his comments a day earlier saw them go into retreat. The Fed Chair didn't hold back on his assessment of interest rates, signaling that the Fed will be willing to keep pushing rates higher if the totality of the data continues to necessitate it. I'll be honest, I think he's chosen his words wisely there even if he did produce a more hawkish performance than I anticipated but the message was clear. Whi

08-03-2023 08:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Close: King Dollar returns, Hawkish Powell sinks risk appetite, Oil and gold punished, Bitcoin nears lower boundaries

Fed Chair Powell killed risk appetite with a hawkish first day on Capitol Hill. Powell said that the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than expected due to the recent strong data and is prepared to move in larger steps if the "totality" of incoming information suggests more needs to be done to bring down inflation. US stocks did not stand a chance after Fed Chair Powell convinced markets that policymakers are comfortable taking this rate hiking campaign much higher.

07-03-2023 15:28 GMT by Edward Moya

US Open: Stocks waver ahead of Powell, Biden eyes higher taxes, RBA almost done hiking, EUR supported on rising ECB bets, Oil and gold await Fed, Bitcoin softens

US stocks are slightly higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony. Everyone is expecting Fed Chair Powell to deliver his best hits of ‘we have more work to do’ and ‘higher for longer’. Powell might not commit how much higher rates will go, but he will keep the door open for the Fed’s dot plots to move higher. Lawmakers will argue that we don’t need to see a recession to bring inflation back to target. Powell will likely signal that Americans could see economic pain later this

07-03-2023 07:46 GMT by Edward Moya

All eyes on Powell

It's shaping up to be another relatively flat day in the markets as investors turn their attention to Capitol Hill ahead of Jerome Powell's first testimony. The Fed Chair will appear before the Senate Banking Committee later today to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report. These events naturally attract a lot of attention but the reality is the Chair's performance is usually quite polished and uncontroversial, and the occasion itself can drag on and frequently venture away from topic.

07-03-2023 03:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Close: Stocks higher on hopes the Fed is almost done, Oil higher, Gold awaits Powell, Crypto little changed

US stocks rallied as optimism grew for the end of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. It looks like traders are now between two or three more quarter-point rate rises and that is good news for risky assets. This is likely the most important week of the year as we will find out the short-term trajectory for both the world’s two largest economies.

06-03-2023 13:46 GMT by Edward Moya

A blessing in disguise

It's been a calm start to the week as investors weigh up what China's modest growth target means for the global economy and look ahead to a busy few days. Safe to say markets were surprised by the decision to target only 5% growth this year while signaling no significant stimulus to turbo-charge the economic recovery. It may well prove to be a wise decision when you consider how well the country has transitioned from zero-Covid to living with it, while policymakers around the world may also be b

06-03-2023 09:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 439)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the US ISM Service Index and the latest round of Fed speak, oil volatility after the UAE refutes speculation about considering leaving OPEC, cryptos, and the week ahead.

03-03-2023 15:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks slide after labor market data reignites bond market selloff, Jobless claims don't want to rise, Oil choppy but higher on China, Gold struggles, Bitcoin anchored

US stocks are under pressure after another round of economic data suggest central bank tightening by both the Fed and ECB might have to be more aggressive. The bond market selloff returned after EU core price inflation hit fresh record highs and US jobless claims edged lower and as labor costs surged. The 10-year Treasury yield is surging, up 6.7bps to 4.058%, while the 30-year rose above 4.00% for the first time since November. The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.4 bps higher to 4.923% and seems

02-03-2023 09:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Mid-Market: Prepare for March Mayhem, ISM data sends 10-year tentatively to 4%, Stocks tumble as Fed signal higher rates, China's robust PMIs, Hot German inflation, AUD GDP, Oil volatile post US data and EIA report, Gold pares gains as yields surge

US stocks are falling after the ISM manufacturing report posted a modest rise that still remains in contraction territory, but prices paid came in hotter, which signals rising costs are coming. The argument for more rate hikes is elevated as material costs appear poised to rise and as the Fed has yet to see a true demand slowdown.

01-03-2023 14:31 GMT by Edward Moya

Successfully transitioning

Equity markets in Asia are enjoying some decent gains overnight, with China and Hong Kong the obvious outperformers, while Europe is also enjoying a positive start on Wednesday. Choppy trading conditions are still evident this week although the latest Chinese PMIs have provided some cause for more optimism. It was already believed that the transition from zero-Covid to living with it was going smoothly but this survey data suggests businesses are now extremely optimistic about the future. That b

01-03-2023 04:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

Awaiting more data

It hasn't been the most thrilling start to the week but that didn't stop investors from piling back into stocks on Monday in the hope that January data proves to be an anomaly. That enthusiasm didn't flow through to Asia overnight where indices are a mix of tiny losses and gains, and Europe looks poised to open in a similar fashion. In reality, the bumper start yesterday was simply a process of unwinding the losses from late last week which further suggests investors are in no mood to be discour

28-02-2023 04:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Bouncing back

Equity markets ended last week on a negative note but they're bouncing back once more in trade on Monday. Interest rate fears are front and centre, following a terrible month of data from the US in January, as far as the Fed is concerned at least. That was further compounded on Friday by the PCE, income, and spending data which didn't come as a major surprise given what preceded it but it didn't offer any relief either. Thankfully, January is likely to be an anomaly month driven by unseasonably

27-02-2023 11:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 436)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the Fed's preferred inflation index accelerated, incoming BOJ Governor Ueda's testimony, cryptos, Coinbase earnings and the week ahead.

24-02-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

Cryptos: all news & analysis