OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam highlights five things that he believes investors will be closely tracking over the next month.
05-04-2023 18:57 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Cryptos: all news & analysis
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Oil inventories drop as Saudis raise prices
Gold rally stalls ahead of $2050
Bitcoin anchored at $28,000
Oil
Crude prices are wavering after weakening US economic data was countered by a larger than expected draw with stockpiles as demand across all products roared back. Energy traders digested a round of US data that suggests the world’s largest economy is headed towards a recession, but then had a rather bullish EIA crude oil inventory report that was immediately followed by a decision from
05-04-2023 16:28 GMT
by Edward Moya
Equity markets are treading water in the middle of the week as investors weigh up what is next for the Fed following the surprise decline in JOLTS job openings, how much further the RBNZ will go in light of today's decision and what the OPEC+ cut means for oil prices and inflation.
There's been a lot to take on board over the last few days and it's been a real mix of good and bad news.
05-04-2023 04:52 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Commodities have been supported by a weaker dollar
Shortened Trading Week impacting flows
Oil rally runs out of steam
The crude rally hit a brick wall as market pessimism grows that US economy is headed towards a recession. Yesterday was all about the shock from the surprise OPEC+ production and today is about a weakening economy and growing consensus that a recession will happen later this year. This is a tough shortened trading week given Good Friday holiday for energy traders. A pivotal
04-04-2023 15:53 GMT
by Edward Moya
Stock markets are moving cautiously higher again on Tuesday as anxiety continues to subside in the aftermath of last month's mini-banking crisis.
RBA pauses amid fears over spending and lags in monetary policy
The RBA paused its tightening cycle today, citing various concerns including a substantial slowdown in household spending, the lag from recent rate hikes, and the stress in US and European banks. While inflation remains far too high and further hikes may be warranted - no longer "will" - i
04-04-2023 08:24 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Wall Street is trying to find its footing after a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report countered OPEC’s surprise production cut that triggered inflation jitters. The S&P 500 index initially opened higher, led by the energy sector, healthcare, and consumer staples as traders rushed to buy anything energy and defensive.
03-04-2023 14:08 GMT
by Edward Moya
Equity markets have started the week a little mixed amid a nasty surprise from OPEC+ at the weekend, albeit against the backdrop of easing anxiety over the banking sector.
We're now entering the third week without new drama in the banks and while I don't think anyone is ready to claim victory, there is an increasing sense of relief. That said, investors are still trying to determine what the longer-term damage of the last month is and the lack of spring back in bond markets suggest the view that
03-04-2023 12:59 GMT
by Craig Erlam
An action-packed end to the week, month, and quarter sees equity markets cautiously higher going into the weekend.
If we end the week in the green, that's a big deal considering how almost disastrous the rest of the month was. Confidence is easily shattered and difficult to restore and a positive end to the week would send a strong signal that investors are feeling reassured by the lack of turmoil recently.
We saw quite the opposite a week ago, as a spike in Deutsche Bank credit default swaps tr
31-03-2023 10:00 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Stock markets are in the green once more on Thursday, with confidence slowly returning as we near the end of the second week without serious drama.
Of course, I'm not including the bank sell-off we saw late last week considering there was no obvious trigger, and fear and panic played a huge role in it. That was more a symptom of what preceded it than evidence of further vulnerabilities in the banking sector.
That isn't to say that other vulnerabilities and casualties won't emerge but investors w
30-03-2023 07:37 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Equity markets are edging higher again today, a sign of gradually improving confidence following a relatively drama-free weekend.
As we saw on Friday though, anxiety remains high and things quickly spiral in those circumstances so investors are likely to remain vigilant. The dust is still settling but every passing day rebuilds confidence and allows investors to feel a little bit more relaxed.
28-03-2023 07:58 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil dragged down on bank woes
Crude prices are lower as banking worries persist and after Energy Secretary Granholm said refilling the SPR could take years. Banking turmoil will clearly have a negative impact on the economy, possibly crushing small businesses as lending becomes more difficult.
24-03-2023 15:38 GMT
by Edward Moya
Investors try to shrug off banking drama
Wall Street was initially dragged down as banking worries persisted after Deutsche Bank’s costs against default skyrocketed. Deutsche Bank’s 5-year CDS surged from around 150 bps early on Thursday to a four-year high around 210 bps before settling closer to 193 bps. Other European banks, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas declined on banking turmoil fears.
24-03-2023 15:32 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks are rising as Wall Street digests what might be the Fed’s last rate hike and Secretary Yellen’s comment on blanket deposit insurance. The post-Fed selloff came from Yellen’s comment that they haven’t looked at backing all bank deposits with FDIC insurance. This was bad news for the banks and contagion fears. Yellen’s comment at a Senate panel hearing should be taken with a grain of salt given a decision to back all deposits would need congressional support. Optimism should remain th
23-03-2023 10:36 GMT
by Edward Moya
Wall Street’s initial take on the Fed was that they delivered a dovish hike and that banking turmoil will finish the job of bringing inflation back to target. Fed Chair Powell started the press conference by noting that the banking system is sound, but Treasury Secretary Yellen put a wrench in that idea. Yellen noted that regulators are not considering a broad increase in deposit insurance. Yellen said she is not considering a broad increase in deposit insurance despite all the discussion aro
22-03-2023 17:07 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They preview the FOMC and BOE rate decisions, discussed the market reaction to a hot UK inflation report, recap the wild moves with gold, and talk cryptos.
22-03-2023 12:57 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks are higher as officials signal they will do whatever it takes to protect the banking system. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments at the American Bankers Association conference sparked today’s risk-on mood.
21-03-2023 15:52 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the UBS take over of Credit Suisse, preview the FOMC decision, and talk cryptos.
20-03-2023 14:52 GMT
by Edward Moya
Looks like it will be another long week on Wall Street. It was a busy weekend after a Credit Suisse bailout and a coordinated effort by the Fed and other central banks to boost dollar liquidity. Despite a couple major weekend attempts to contain the risks hitting the banking system, US stocks are wavering as risk aversion won’t be going away until markets are confident that the Fed is done with their rate hiking campaign. The banking system still doesn’t have any confidence as Wall Street tri
20-03-2023 09:47 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after this week's banking turmoil, the University of Michigan sentiment report, Fed expectations for next week, recap the ECB decision, cryptos, and the week ahead.
17-03-2023 14:02 GMT
by Edward Moya
Terrible week continues
Oil prices have been pummelled this week as turmoil in the banking sector has increased the risk of a significant economic slowdown or recession this year. Clearly, traders are not convinced that the worst is behind us which continues to weigh heavily on the price of crude, particularly going into a weekend when anything can happen, as we saw a week ago.
17-03-2023 12:14 GMT
by Craig Erlam