Cryptos: All News & Analysis

Mid-Market Update: Powell Part Deux, Labor Market still looks hot after ADP & JOLTS, Stocks struggle, Oil remains heavy, Gold wavers, Bitcoin softens

US stocks struggled to find direction after another round of labor data suggests this market will remain tight and on Fed Chair Powell’s second day of testimony on Capitol Hill. Powell did not deliver any surprises, repeating that the Fed may need to speed up the pace of its interest rate increases if necessary.

08-03-2023 13:43 GMT by Edward Moya

A big blow

Stock markets are steadying ahead of Powell's second appearance of the week on Wednesday, after his comments a day earlier saw them go into retreat. The Fed Chair didn't hold back on his assessment of interest rates, signaling that the Fed will be willing to keep pushing rates higher if the totality of the data continues to necessitate it. I'll be honest, I think he's chosen his words wisely there even if he did produce a more hawkish performance than I anticipated but the message was clear. Whi

08-03-2023 08:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Close: King Dollar returns, Hawkish Powell sinks risk appetite, Oil and gold punished, Bitcoin nears lower boundaries

Fed Chair Powell killed risk appetite with a hawkish first day on Capitol Hill. Powell said that the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than expected due to the recent strong data and is prepared to move in larger steps if the "totality" of incoming information suggests more needs to be done to bring down inflation. US stocks did not stand a chance after Fed Chair Powell convinced markets that policymakers are comfortable taking this rate hiking campaign much higher.

07-03-2023 15:28 GMT by Edward Moya

US Open: Stocks waver ahead of Powell, Biden eyes higher taxes, RBA almost done hiking, EUR supported on rising ECB bets, Oil and gold await Fed, Bitcoin softens

US stocks are slightly higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony. Everyone is expecting Fed Chair Powell to deliver his best hits of ‘we have more work to do’ and ‘higher for longer’. Powell might not commit how much higher rates will go, but he will keep the door open for the Fed’s dot plots to move higher. Lawmakers will argue that we don’t need to see a recession to bring inflation back to target. Powell will likely signal that Americans could see economic pain later this

07-03-2023 07:46 GMT by Edward Moya

All eyes on Powell

It's shaping up to be another relatively flat day in the markets as investors turn their attention to Capitol Hill ahead of Jerome Powell's first testimony. The Fed Chair will appear before the Senate Banking Committee later today to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report. These events naturally attract a lot of attention but the reality is the Chair's performance is usually quite polished and uncontroversial, and the occasion itself can drag on and frequently venture away from topic.

07-03-2023 03:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Close: Stocks higher on hopes the Fed is almost done, Oil higher, Gold awaits Powell, Crypto little changed

US stocks rallied as optimism grew for the end of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. It looks like traders are now between two or three more quarter-point rate rises and that is good news for risky assets. This is likely the most important week of the year as we will find out the short-term trajectory for both the world’s two largest economies.

06-03-2023 13:46 GMT by Edward Moya

A blessing in disguise

It's been a calm start to the week as investors weigh up what China's modest growth target means for the global economy and look ahead to a busy few days. Safe to say markets were surprised by the decision to target only 5% growth this year while signaling no significant stimulus to turbo-charge the economic recovery. It may well prove to be a wise decision when you consider how well the country has transitioned from zero-Covid to living with it, while policymakers around the world may also be b

06-03-2023 09:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 439)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the US ISM Service Index and the latest round of Fed speak, oil volatility after the UAE refutes speculation about considering leaving OPEC, cryptos, and the week ahead.

03-03-2023 15:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks slide after labor market data reignites bond market selloff, Jobless claims don't want to rise, Oil choppy but higher on China, Gold struggles, Bitcoin anchored

US stocks are under pressure after another round of economic data suggest central bank tightening by both the Fed and ECB might have to be more aggressive. The bond market selloff returned after EU core price inflation hit fresh record highs and US jobless claims edged lower and as labor costs surged. The 10-year Treasury yield is surging, up 6.7bps to 4.058%, while the 30-year rose above 4.00% for the first time since November. The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.4 bps higher to 4.923% and seems

02-03-2023 09:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Mid-Market: Prepare for March Mayhem, ISM data sends 10-year tentatively to 4%, Stocks tumble as Fed signal higher rates, China's robust PMIs, Hot German inflation, AUD GDP, Oil volatile post US data and EIA report, Gold pares gains as yields surge

US stocks are falling after the ISM manufacturing report posted a modest rise that still remains in contraction territory, but prices paid came in hotter, which signals rising costs are coming. The argument for more rate hikes is elevated as material costs appear poised to rise and as the Fed has yet to see a true demand slowdown.

01-03-2023 14:31 GMT by Edward Moya

Successfully transitioning

Equity markets in Asia are enjoying some decent gains overnight, with China and Hong Kong the obvious outperformers, while Europe is also enjoying a positive start on Wednesday. Choppy trading conditions are still evident this week although the latest Chinese PMIs have provided some cause for more optimism. It was already believed that the transition from zero-Covid to living with it was going smoothly but this survey data suggests businesses are now extremely optimistic about the future. That b

01-03-2023 04:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

Awaiting more data

It hasn't been the most thrilling start to the week but that didn't stop investors from piling back into stocks on Monday in the hope that January data proves to be an anomaly. That enthusiasm didn't flow through to Asia overnight where indices are a mix of tiny losses and gains, and Europe looks poised to open in a similar fashion. In reality, the bumper start yesterday was simply a process of unwinding the losses from late last week which further suggests investors are in no mood to be discour

28-02-2023 04:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Bouncing back

Equity markets ended last week on a negative note but they're bouncing back once more in trade on Monday. Interest rate fears are front and centre, following a terrible month of data from the US in January, as far as the Fed is concerned at least. That was further compounded on Friday by the PCE, income, and spending data which didn't come as a major surprise given what preceded it but it didn't offer any relief either. Thankfully, January is likely to be an anomaly month driven by unseasonably

27-02-2023 11:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 436)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the Fed's preferred inflation index accelerated, incoming BOJ Governor Ueda's testimony, cryptos, Coinbase earnings and the week ahead.

24-02-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

US Open: The Fed’s Inflation Problem, Rate hikes now priced in for next 3 meetings, Hawkish Fed speak, Oil and Gold crushed as dollar soars on rising rate hike bets, Crypto weakens

US stocks are selling off after the Fed’s preferred inflation reading comes in scorching hot, prompting bets that they will hike rates over the next three meetings. Some traders are also worried that they may need to take rates well above 6.00%. This morning is not just about PCE inflation, but also the consumer.

24-02-2023 10:38 GMT by Edward Moya

Reality kicking in

It's been a strange week in financial markets, one in which we've learned relatively little but reality appears to be slowly catching up on some. I say that as someone that doesn't think things will be as bad as they currently seem on interest rates and the economy but equally is of the belief that markets should at least reflect the risk of it being so. We are seeing that in some corners of the market but equity markets - and cryptos for that matter - have been reluctant to be discouraged. They

24-02-2023 08:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

Mid-Market Update: Strong start fizzled out on Fed worries, Nvidia impresses, Claims suggest labor market is not ready to loosen, Crude rallies post EIA report, Gold weakens, Bitcoin wavers

US stocks initially rallied as traders become confident the Fed’s rate hiking campaign will be over after two or three more rate hikes. Stocks were also getting a boost after Nvidia delivered a robust outlook.

23-02-2023 13:37 GMT by Edward Moya

A pinch of salt

Equity markets are heading for a positive start to the session, paring Wednesday's gains as investors digest the latest Fed minutes. The usual caveat applies to the minutes, being that a lot of time has passed, and to a great extent, the contents of them are either outdated or known. Still, as we saw on Wednesday, that doesn't always matter and markets can still respond accordingly. The starkest takeaway was arguably that some policymakers could have gotten behind another 50 basis point increase

23-02-2023 04:35 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Open: Bullard’s projections suggest Fed’s work is almost done, China-Russia ties, RBNZ hikes, Oil remains heavy, Gold edges higher, Bitcoin softens ahead of Fed Minutes

US stock turned positive after Fed’s Bullard stated that markets might be over-pricing US recession risk. Bullard said his projections for rates are to reach 5.375%, which implies 75 bps more in rate increases. Bullard is one of the more hawkish members, so if he thinks we only have a little ways to go here, the peak in rates might be properly priced in. The disagreement between the Fed and markets on how high rates to go might be over and that could provide a tentative boost for stocks.

22-02-2023 10:26 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 435)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the Walmart and Home Depot earnings, President Putin's State of the Nation address, and cryptos.

21-02-2023 13:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Cryptos: all news & analysis