Chart alert: Hawkish RBA provides support for AUD/USD, bulls need to break back above 0.7140

• Choppy price action amid conflicting drivers: The AUD/USD has turned volatile, with commodity strength providing support while rising risk aversion, driven by stagflation fears from the US–Iran war 2026, has capped gains, leading to a failed breakout above 0.7140.
• Hawkish RBA outlook offers medium-term support: Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may deliver more than two rate hikes in 2026, potentially a third, are supporting the Australian dollar as inflation remains above target.
• Key levels to determine next move: Near-term support sits at 0.7015, with a break above 0.7140 needed to reignite bullish momentum toward 0.7190–0.7266, while a drop below support risks a pullback toward 0.6980–0.6944.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout (finally) above 0.7140, new bullish impulsive up move sequence triggered”, published on 11 March 2026.

The price actions of the AUD/USD have been choppy in the past five days as it grappled with conflicting elements that drove short-term movements.

Read more: RBA Preview: Why a 25bps hike to 4.1% is the most likely outcome

Firmer commodity prices (excluding precious metals) due to rising oil prices are providing a floor and, in some form, a tailwind on the AUD/USD, as the Australian dollar is often labeled as a “commodity currency” due to the resource-rich Australian economy.

On the other hand, the Australian dollar is also sensitive to changes in risk appetite, where a sudden increase in risk aversion in global markets (spurt of risk-off behaviour where equities get sold off) triggers a downside drift in the AUD/USD.

Higher oil prices seen in the past week have been linked to stagflation fears, which in turn drives up risk aversion due to the slower growth effect, creating a negative feedback loop in the AUD/USD.

The AUD/USD almost erased the earlier rally of 3% from the 9 March 2026 low of 0.6957 to the 11 March 2026 high of 0.7187 and declined by 2.9% to print a recent minor low of 0.6980 on last Friday, 13 March 2026, creating a failed bullish breakout above 0.7140.

The Australian central bank, RBA, is expected to enact its second-interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) in 2026 later today to bring the policy cash rate higher to 4.1%.

The RBA ended its easing cycle in August 2025, and due to higher inflationary expectations, which may lead to the inflation trend in Australia (trimmed mean CPI at 3.4% y/y in January) remaining sticky above the RBA’s long-term inflation rate target of 2%-3%, RBA governor Bullock is likely to paint a hawkish guidance in the press conference to signal further potential rate hikes.

Based on the overnight indexed swap (OIS) market in Australia, the spread between the 6-month OIS rate and 1-month OIS rate has widened further, and the 6-month OIS rate was at 4.24% as of Friday, 13 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Hence, a third-interest rate hike by the RBA in the summer months of 2026 cannot be ruled out, which in turn may offer support for a firmer AUD/USD.

Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the 0.7015 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up to retest 0.7120 and 0.7140. A daily close above 0.7140 is likely to trigger a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.7190 and 0.7246/7266 in the first step.

On the other hand, failure to hold at 0.7015 sees weakness to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6980 and 0.6944 (also the 50-day moving average).

• The recent minor decline from the 11 March 2026 high to the 13 March 2026 low has managed to stall and find support at the former minor descending channel resistance from the 27 February 2026 high (see Fig. 2).
• The daily RSI momentum indicator has just staged a rebound right above its key ascending trendline support at the 43 level on Monday, 16 March 2026 (see Fig. 3).