Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Lead FX Gains to Kick Off Christmas Week – AUD/USD and NZD/USD Outlook

The two neighbor antipodean currencies have taken quite a divergent path in 2025, particularly throughout the latter part of the year.

While historically tending to stay correlated, this link has weakened as New Zealand's economy suffered from a brutal slowdown, while the Australian economy stayed red hot – Also leading to quite a diverging Monetary Policy.

The RBNZ Rate is at 2.25% and has just concluded its cutting cycle, while the Royal Bank of Australia rate is at 3.60% and could potentially hike next year!

Both currencies are the leaders of today's FX action that kicks off a shortened Christmas week.

(Watch out for low volumes and potentially distorted flows as year-end erratic flows can occur – They could both be traps and opportunities!)

Both currencies are traditionally seen as commodity currencies, but it's quite a general term – Here is what differentiates the AUD and NZD:

The New Zealand economy specializes in agricultural exports such as dairy and cattle.

It correlates well with price rises in these commodities but was significantly affected by US tariffs targeting such products.

The Australian economy, on the other hand, has loved the rally in metals, being a huge exporter of iron, gold, coal, and uranium.

With three out of four of these commodities rising significantly this year, demand for the Aussie dollar has surged.

Add to these flows their high correlation to Chinese stimulus—heavy work from the PBoC this year—and Stock Indexes which have risen significantly (S&P 500 +16%, Nasdaq +21.50%), both currencies are performing well after this year's huge FX rebalancing.

This is even more relevant for the AUD.

Let's dive into an intraday chart analysis for AUD/USD and NZD/USD, looking at their technicals and trading levels.

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AUD/NZD had fallen drastically between 2010 to 2014 as the Commodity supercycle took a huge turn to the downside after the Great Financial Crisis.

Ranging between $1.00 to $1.12 for the majority of the past decade, it seems that longer term trends could be changing again.

Up around 8% since Liberation Day, a trend seems to be forming for the Antipodean Pair.

Assuming we enter a new Supercycle for metals, the Aussie could be in a better place to capture FX demand. The rest will be contingent on if Metals demand keeps increasing.

The Aussie Dollar is performing quite well since last week's close.

Bouncing from the 0.66 Psychological support, buyers are taking the lead to push AUD/USD towards the September FOMC resistance 0.6680 to 0.6710.

With the USD taking a hit to start the week and commodities rampaging higher, it seems that sellers are for now absent and should not see much resistance before the key level.

AUD/USD Technical Levels to keep on your charts:

Resistance levels (NZDUSD)

• Main Support turned Pivot 0.5720 to 0.5750 (testing)
• Daily highs 0.5730
• 0.58 Key Resistance
• 0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Resistance

Support levels

• 4H 200 MA at 0.5690
• October Rebound Support at 0.5660 to 0.57
• 4H 50-period MA 0.56385
• January 2025 Support 0.5650

The Kiwi is heading towards the 0.58 psychological level and December Resistance, last barrier for the Antipodean to regain a higher trajectory.

The Pair had broken out of its major downward channel, that had started in July and accelerated after the huge miss in the Kiwi GDP in September.

With the Cutting Cycle done for the RBNZ, the pair could be getting a fundamental boost.

NZD/USD Technical Levels to keep on your charts:

Resistance levels (NZDUSD)

• 0.58 to 0.5830 December Resistance
• 0.58310 FOMC Highs
• 0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Resistance
• September Resistance 0.60
• 2025 Highs 0.6120

Support levels

• Main Support turned Pivot 0.5720 to 0.5750
• Friday Lows 0.5730
• October Rebound Support at 0.5660 to 0.57
• January 2025 Support 0.5650

Safe Trades and Merry Christmas!

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