Major NFP disappointment combined with sharp downward revisions

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Elior Manier - Picture
By  Elior Manier

1 August 2025 at 13:09 UTC

The market highly anticipated this release with prior months of price action making renewed all-time high almost daily – A very strong earnings season is a glad contributor to that.

Nevertheless, there has been some angst in Markets as some deals have been concluding with some sacrifices, rates are held higher and the August 1st deadline for those who haven't reached a deal is right here.

Markets are also continuously looking to know more from the effect of the Trump Administration's policies, and it felt like Participants had been surprised to the upside for all the preceding releases – as if players were always expecting bad numbers.

But bad numbers they received: Today's NFP release is at 73K vs 110K Expected but worse even is the 14K vs 147K announced revision for the prior month.

Markets have corrected strongly throughout the past session but the data is not helping – The VIX is now at around 10% on the session and Cuts probabilities for September are rising.


Reactions for now: Dollar down, stocks down, gold up, Bonds up – Let's see how the rest of the day unfoldds

Nasdaq (CFD, pre-open) 15m Chart

Screenshot 2025-08-01 at 8.57.15 AM
Nasdaq 15m Chart, August 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Gold 15m Chart

Screenshot 2025-08-01 at 9.01.37 AM
Gold 15m Chart, August 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

US 10Y Bonds 15m

Screenshot 2025-08-01 at 9.03.36 AM
US 10Y Bond 15m Chart, August 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

US Dollar Index

Screenshot 2025-08-01 at 9.05.22 AM
Dollar Index 15m Chart, August 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Watch for more volatility throughout the session.

Safe Trades!

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