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USD/JPY Technical: Potential mean reversion rebound in progress above 200-day MA
Last week's drop of 2.8% seen in the USD/JPY has almost reached a key support of 151.70. An overstretched decline with high volatility on top of an oversold condition increases the odds of a mean reversion rebound scenario for USD/JPY. Watch the potential upside trigger of 154.10 on the USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY: Another potential relief rally leg looms for JPY” published on 22 July 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the Japanese yen ha
by Kelvin Wong
Markets Weekly Outlook: Central Banks and US Earnings. Will the BoJ Hike Rates?
Global markets experienced a volatile week, influenced by a tech selloff, China growth concerns, and anticipation of central bank decisions and US earnings reports Despite the volatility and tech led selloff, US equity funds saw inflows. Central bank meetings, particularly the FOMC and BoJ, and US NFP data will be key drivers of market sentiment in the coming week. Read More: Oil Price Reversal Ahead? Chart Patterns Indicate Possible Bounce at Support Week in Review: Sentiment Overshadows
by Zain Vawda
Gold Technical: The recent sell-off may have reached a potential bullish reversal level at US$2,353
The recent weakness seen in Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to be driven by US politics as the “Gold premium” has moved in synch with the betting odds of Republican nominee Trump winning the US Presidential Election. The US Treasury market is likely to take a driver's seat now as the focus returns to the monetary policy guidance from the outcome of the US Fed FOMC meeting next Wednesday, 31 July.
by Kelvin Wong
Oil Price Reversal Ahead? Chart Patterns Indicate Possible Bounce at Support
Oil prices have faced challenges recently, but buying pressure prevented a drop below $80. Technical indicators suggest potential for an upward bounce, with key resistance levels to watch. Fundamental factors like Canadian wildfires, US stockpiles, and rate cut expectations support oil prices. Most Read: GBP/USD Dips to 1.2850 Amid Growing BoE Rate Cut Speculation Oil prices faced challenges yesterday until buying pressure during the US session prevented crude oil from dropping below the psycho
by Zain Vawda
Gold (XAU/USD) Continues Decline, DXY Lower After US GDP Beat
The decline in Gold prices is attributed to technical selling pressure, profit-taking, and a strong US GDP print. The bull run in Gold may not be over due to anticipated Central Bank demand, increased demand from India, and geopolitical factors. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has found support around 104.00 but is struggling to close back above the 200-day MA.
by Zain Vawda
SPX 500: Further weakness may trigger a medium-term global risk-off event
Market participants have started to question the earlier high earnings growth prospects placed on the “Magnificent 7” stocks. The past month of record low implied correlation among S&P 500 component stocks can increase the odds of a more pronounced spike in the VIX. The S&P 500 is at risk of shaping a medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline phase which may trigger a global risk-off scenario. The mega-capitalization stocks have led yesterday’s rout in the US stock market where the Magnifice
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/USD Dips to 1.2850 Amid Growing BoE Rate Cut Speculation
GBP/USD is declining due to speculation of a BoE rate cut and concerns about global growth. Market participants are pricing in a 53% chance of rate cuts in August, but economists polled predict an 80% chance of a cut. Technically, GBP/USD has support at 1.2850 and resistance at 1.2950. Most Read: USD/JPY Declines Sharply as BoJ Considers Rate Hike Next Week Cable has continued to edge toward support at the 1.2850 handle as high impact US data lies in wait.
by Zain Vawda
USD/CAD unmoved by Bank of Canada rate cut
The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday, after the Bank of Canada cut rates at today’s meeting. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3778, up 0.05% on the day at the time of writing. Bank of Canada lower rates The Bank of Canada lowered rates by 25 basis points, bringing the key interest rate to 4.50%.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD pares losses after weak eurozone PMIs
The euro edged lower on Wednesday but has recovered. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0860, up 0.07% on the day at the time of writing. Eurozone PMIs weaker than expected Eurozone PMIs can be viewed as monthly report cards for the services and manufacturing services.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil Price Update: Brent Holds Critical Support Amid US Inventory Decline
Oil prices have declined over the past four days, but Brent oil remains at a crucial support level. The Chinese government has cut rates to stimulate economic growth following disappointing data. Will this help keep oil demand strong in H2? US GDP, PMI and PCE data could play a role in Oil price moving ahead while the Geopolitical situation needs to be monitored as well.
by Zain Vawda
EUR/USD improves to two-week high
The euro has posted gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0847, down 0.40% on the day at the time of writing. In the US, today’s data was a disappointment.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY: Another potential relief rally leg looms for JPY
A potential uptick in Japan’s core-core CPI led by PPI may increase the odds of a BoJ’s interest rate hike in September. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s betting odds have slipped after US President Biden decided to bow out of the US Presidential Election race. A resurgence of Trumponomics that may be challenged which in turn may lead to a US dollar mixed-bag to negative environment in the short term. Another daily close below 156.50 on the USD/JPY may trigger a multi-week correct
by Kelvin Wong
Australian dollar falls to 3-week low
The Australian dollar is coming off a rough week with losses of 1.45% and the downtrend has continued on Monday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6664 in the European session, down 0.30% on the day at the time of writing.
by Kenneth Fisher
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