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USD/JPY Technical: Recent mean reversion rebound in US dollar strength may have hit a ceiling

The recent week of Japanese yen weakness is likely driven by “political jawboning” The current jump in the JPY implied volatility index has reached an overstretched condition that suggests a potential pause in the recent USD/JPY’s up move. A break below 143.60 intermediate support on the USD/JPY may trigger renew weakness. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report “USD/JPY Technical: Mean reversion rebound in progress within a medium-term downtrend” published on 23 September 2024.

04-10-2024 06:16 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NFP Preview - US Jobs Report and Potential Impact on the S&P 500

US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release is highly anticipated amidst shifting expectations of a Fed rate cut. Market predictions for the NFP report vary, with analysts split on expected figures. S&P 500 technical analysis reveals a bullish triangle pattern, will the bulls finish the week strong?

04-10-2024 05:54 GMT by Zain Vawda

US Dollar Index (DXY) Extends Gains, BoE Governor Bailey Remarks Weighs on GBP/USD

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a strong rally this week, fueled by expectations of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in November and safe-haven flows amid rising Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair experienced a sharp selloff following comments by BoE Governor Bailey. The NFP report and US unemployment rate will be key catalysts for both the DXY and GBP/USD tomorrow. Most Read: JPY Price Action Ideas: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY US Dollar Index Starts Q4 with a Bang

03-10-2024 13:12 GMT by Zain Vawda

WTI Oil: Rising geopolitical risk premiums and China stimulus may have created a medium-term floor at US$67.55-65.70/barrel

The recent sell-off of 18% in WTI crude oil since August has stalled. An increase in hostilities in the Middle East and impending fiscal stimulus measures from China are likely to trigger a medium-term trend change in oil prices. Technical factors suggest a further potential rebound in WTI crude oil towards the next medium-term resistance zone at US$78.30/80.30. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report “WTI Oil: At the risk of a further drop to retest major range support of US$73.15-71.

03-10-2024 07:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong

JPY Price Action Ideas: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY

The Japanese Yen faces uncertainty due to a new PM, snap elections, and shifting market sentiment. Despite a strong US Dollar and GBP, the Yen saw a temporary boost from safe-haven flows amid geopolitical risks. USD/JPY is range-bound, with a potential breakout above 146.37 hinting at a run toward 150.00. Most Read: EUR/USD Update – Euro Vulnerable on Rate Cut Bets and Safe Haven Flows The Japanese Yen is going through a bumpy week with a new PM incoming, snap elections and modest safe haven ga

02-10-2024 12:13 GMT by Zain Vawda

EUR/USD Update - Euro Vulnerable on Rate Cut Bets and Safe Haven Flows

The Euro's appeal has diminished due to expectations of ECB rate cuts, fueled by softer economic data and dovish policymaker comments. The US Dollar is gaining strength amid Middle East tensions, potentially attracting safe-haven flows. EUR/USD has formed a double top pattern at 1.1200 and is facing immediate support at 1.1000. Most Read: Nasdaq 100 Technical: Failure bullish breakout with rising geopolitical risk The Euro has lost some of its appeal over the past two weeks as softer data has i

02-10-2024 09:23 GMT by Zain Vawda

Japanese yen slides as political drama continues

The yen is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, the USD/JPY is trading at 144.82 at the time of writing, up 0.89%. New finance minister makes markets uneasy In Japan, the dust is yet to settle on the political drama.

02-10-2024 07:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Failure bullish breakout with rising geopolitical risk

Nasdaq 100 has reintegrated back below its most recent medium-term swing high of 19,880. Nvidia is now showing leadership weakness which may trigger a jump in VIX, in turn setting up a potential multi-week corrective decline sequence in the Nasdaq 100. Market breadth has turned lacklustre as the Nasdaq 100 component stocks have recorded lesser new 52-week highs in the past four weeks. The Nasdaq 100, a higher beta index among the major US stock indices due to its higher weighted concentration o

02-10-2024 05:57 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Changing of the Guard at the Swiss National Bank

The Swiss franc is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8454, up 0.13% on the day. SNB welcomes Schlegel – will he bring more of the same? Martin Schlegel has taken over as the new president of the Swiss National Bank, replacing long-term head Thomas Jordan.

02-10-2024 04:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar slips on mixed data

The Australian dollar is considerably lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6869, down 0.63%.

01-10-2024 13:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 - Wall Street Slides at the Open as Powell Hints at Modest Rate Cuts

Wall Street indexes fell as Fed Chair Powell's comments suggested a less aggressive rate cut in November than anticipated. US PMI data indicated a sharp decline in manufacturing new orders, job shedding, and rising output price inflation. Triangle breakout pattern still in play from a technical standpoint. Retest and continuation?

01-10-2024 11:17 GMT by Zain Vawda

Euro extends losses as eurozone CPI slows to 1.8%

The euro continues to lose ground and is trading at 1.1080 in the North American session, down 0.49% on the day. The euro is down for a third consecutive day and has declined 0.9% during that time. Eurozone CPI lower than expected Eurozone inflation eased to 1.8% y/y in September, down from 2.2% in August and below the market estimate of 1.9%.

01-10-2024 10:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Oil Slides 2% in European Trade Before a Recovery, OPEC+ Meeting Next

Oil prices fell by 2.4% in early European trade, possibly due to demand concerns and rebalancing. Concerns about China's economic recovery and the possibility of increased Libyan oil production are also weighing on oil prices. From a technical perspective, the H4 chart showing RSI divergence. Higher prices ahead?

01-10-2024 08:28 GMT by Zain Vawda

Japanese yen slips as Powell signals small cuts

USD/JPY is calm on Tuesday after the US dollar jumped 1.03% a day earlier. In the European session, the yen is trading at 143.76 at the time of writing, up 0.10%. Japan's parliament elects Ishiba Prime Minister Japan’s political drama continued on Tuesday with the election of a new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba.

01-10-2024 06:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD at 14-mth high as NZ business confidence jumps

The New Zealand dollar is higher for a third straight day. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6374 at the time of writing, up 0.53% on the day. New Zealand business confidence hits 10-year high The week started on a positive note as New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence surged to 60.9 in September, up sharply from 50.6 in August and crushing the forecast of 43.0.

30-09-2024 13:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold (XAU/USD) Prices Slide as Q3 Draws to a Close

Gold prices fell due to a stronger dollar and end-of-quarter flows, despite being on track for the best quarter since Q1 2016. The market is awaiting US jobs data on Friday, which could impact rate cut expectations and the US dollar. Gold remains extremely overbought at present, will the NFP report inspire a deeper correction?

30-09-2024 11:01 GMT by Zain Vawda

Euro steady as Germany’s CPI lower than expected

The euro is steady at the start of the trading week. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1170 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.06% on the day. Germany’s CPI eases to 1.6% Inflation in Germany slowed to 1.6% y/y in September, down from 1.9% in August and shy of the market estimate of 1.7%.

30-09-2024 10:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen soars on Japan’s political drama

The Japanese yen has steadied on Monday after posting huge gains on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 142.43 in the European session, up 0.15%. Incoming PM Ishiba says he’ll call snap election The yen soared on Friday but it was in response to political rather than economic developments.

30-09-2024 07:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Hang Seng Index: Start of a potential new medium-term bullish trend

Aggressive interest rate cuts by PBoC coupled with potential expansionary fiscal policies that target consumer spending have stoked positive animal spirits. Market breadth has improved on China CSI 300 and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index. Watch the key medium-term support of 18,290 on the Hang Seng Index. Since the start of last week, a change of fortunes has occurred in the China and Hong Kong stock markets due to a revival of positive animal spirits driven by a fresh aggressive monetary policy stan

30-09-2024 06:14 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Markets Weekly Outlook - Will the NFP Report Validate Rate Cut Optimism?

Fed policymakers maintain a dovish stance, and market participants are pricing in a potential 50 basis point rate cut in November. The US dollar hit a fresh YTD low, while Gold and Silver continued to advance. The week ahead features key data releases, including Eurozone inflation and US nonfarm payrolls, which could shape central bank policies and market sentiment.

27-09-2024 13:20 GMT by Zain Vawda

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