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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 - US Indices Eye Recovery as Earnings and Yields Weigh on Markets
Major US stock indexes are struggling due to a combination of factors, including US earnings reports and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. Earnings season has seen mixed results, with some companies exceeding expectations (like General Motors) and others falling short (like Verizon and GE Aerospace). The Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing potential for further upside, while the Nasdaq 100 remains rangebound. Most Read: Brent Crude – Oil Rises on China Rate Cuts but Middle
by Zain Vawda
Brent Crude - Oil Rises on China Rate Cuts but Middle East Uncertainty Lingers
Oil prices rose due to Chinese rate cuts and Middle East uncertainty. The IMF downgraded its global growth forecast to 3.2%. Technically, Further upside is possible if conditions remain consistent. Geopolitics remains key. Most Read: USD/CHF Technical Outlook: Pullback Before Continuation? Oil prices are enjoying a mini renaissance to start the week thanks to Chinese rate cuts and the ongoing and ever changing situation in the Middle East.
by Zain Vawda
Gold Technical: Bullish acceleration in progress reinforced by “Trump Trade”
Republican president nominee Donald Trump prospect of winning the White House has increased in the past week based on data from betting markets. Resurgence of “Trump Trade” narrative has triggered a positive feedback loop into Gold (XAU/USD). An increase in tail-risk hedging activities also led to higher demand for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the US$2,590 key medium-term support on Gold (XAU/USD)
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/USD lower, ECB’s Kazimir confident in ‘disinflation path’
The euro has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0838, down 0.24% on the day. ECB’s Kazimir says disinflation continuing The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate last week by a 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/CHF Technical Outlook: Pullback Before Continuation?
USD/CHF is showing potential for bullish continuation. The Swiss National Bank may welcome a weaker CHF due to pressure from the swiss export sector. Upcoming US data and geopolitical events, including the IMF meeting and US election, could impact USD/CHF. Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook – PMI Data and IMF Meeting Dominate the Agenda s eyeing an extended move to the upside as it hovers around a support area on Monday. Safe Haven appeal appears to be keeping the Swiss Franc supported at presen
by Zain Vawda
USD/JPY edges lower, China cuts lending rates
The yen is slightly lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.96, up 0.30%. China lowers key lending rates by 25 basis points. China cuts key lending rates China lowered its key lending rates by 25 basis points on Monday.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY Technical: Potential bearish reversal in US dollar strength below 200-day moving average
USD/JPY has rallied by 7.7% from the 16 September 2024 low with three key risk events/data for this week (Japan’s flash PMI, Tokyo CPI & general election). The recent 4-week rally in the USD/JPY has displayed exhaustion conditions. Watch the 148.95 key intermediate support. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report “USD/JPY Technical: Recent mean reversion rebound in US dollar strength may have hit a ceiling” published on 4 October 2024.
by Kelvin Wong
Markets Weekly Outlook - PMI Data and IMF Meeting Dominate the Agenda
Global markets are reacting to shifts in central bank policies, with the US dollar strengthening and rate cut expectations changing. The upcoming week will be busy with the IMF meeting, PMI data releases, central bank announcements, and US earnings reports. The US Dollar Index is in focus as technical factors may play a more significant role in its movement amidst a lighter data week.
by Zain Vawda
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Smashes Through $2700/oz - Further Gains Ahead?
Gold prices surged past $2700/oz fueled by expectations of global rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The London Bullion Market Association's bullish prediction of $2941/oz gold price in 12 months. Technically, gold is overbought, but the threat of an Israeli strike on Iran could limit downside risks. Most Read: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 – Wall Street Indexes Rise as TSMC Leads Chip Stock Rally, Where to Next?
by Zain Vawda
Pound rises on strong UK retail sales
The British pound has extended its gains on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3046, up 0.27% on the day. UK retail sales stronger than expected UK retail sales are moving in the right direction.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD Technical: Overstretched decline heading into ECB meeting
A 25bps cut by the ECB is likely to have been fully priced in. The current high expectation of another ECB rate cut in December faces an increased repricing risk. Watch the 1.0780/0750 key medium-term support on the EUR/USD. In the past four weeks, the EUR/USD has plummeted by 3.3% from its 25 September high of 1.1214 to today’s current intraday low of 1.0849 at this time of the writing ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision.
by Kelvin Wong
GBP Price Action Ideas: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP
The GBP has been declining against the USD due to softer-than-expected UK economic data, leading to expectations of more aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England. GBP/USD is at a crucial level of 1.3000, a break below which could lead to further downside. GBP/JPY is showing signs of a potential breakout, with price coiling between the 100 and 200-day moving averages. EUR/GBP is near the YTD low, with immediate resistance at 0.8400. The pair's future direction will depend on the GBP's strength
by Zain Vawda
US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook: DXY Breaches the 100-day MA, Will the Rally Continue?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to advance due to a lack of impactful US data and expectations of robust retail sales. Donald Trump's comments on tariffs and the Federal Reserve's independence. The DXY faces technical challenges, with the RSI in overbought territory, but the overall outlook remains bullish. Most Read:  The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its advance with the lack of high impact US data keeping the greenback on the front foot. A move lower in the DXY may need a batch of soft
by Zain Vawda
SPX 500: First sign of volatility detected
Trump’s trade war 2.0 narrative & steep sell-off in ASML spooked the performances of the major US stock indices on Tuesday, 15 October. Implied volatility in the US stock market, measured by the VIX tends to be highest in October based on data during past US presidential election years since 1992. VIX/MOVE ratio has started to show outperformance of VIX. The S&P 500’on-going 4-week rally has flashed out exhaustion conditions. The S&P 500 shed 0.75% on Tuesday, 15 October after it printed its 4
by Kelvin Wong
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